Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: El Salvador produced nearly 474 bitcoin using geothermal energy, Bitfarms expanded the capacity of its Paraguayan bitcoin mining facility, and Bitso launched an in-house Web3 wallet. El Salvador Reportedly Mined Nearly 474 BTC […]
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The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data
Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as “Quiet and Trending,” suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility.
Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern
Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. “Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,” Check explains.
Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply.
A striking aspect of Check’s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,” states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years.
Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s volatility: “What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!” He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end.
A critical tool in Check’s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. “Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,” Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions.
Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. “The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a top-heavy market.”
He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands.
Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that Bitcoin’s volatility is well within a manageable range.
Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the “out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,” which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components.
By highlighting the structural aspects of the current “Quiet and Trending” market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset.
He concludes, “Overall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,288.
Bitcoin Soaring Toward $84,000: Insights From Glassnode Co-Founders
In a remarkable turn of events, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of its recent trading range, recording a 7% surge in the past 24 hours alone. The cryptocurrency tests the ,000 resistance level, setting the stage for a potential move toward higher targets.
The latest momentum shift in Bitcoin’s price action has caught the attention of industry experts, particularly the co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. According to their analysis, the trigger for a larger market structure release has been in the works since the March highs.
Bitcoin Breaks Out
The co-founders of Glassnode believe this breakout has been coming for a long time. They state that they have been waiting for the trigger to unleash a major bullish structure since the March highs when Bitcoin reached its current all-time high (ATH) of ,700, and it looks like the market has finally done so.
They believe the trigger was the recent lower-than-expected US inflation figures and weaker retail sales data, which could prompt a more “dovish stance” from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Glassnode co-founders, this opens the door to a more dovish stance from the Fed. They explain that Bitcoin and the market liked this, and now they expect the price to reach ,000 before ,000 and then up towards ,000. They also believe the altcoins will follow this move strongly.
However, not all analysts are as bullish in the immediate term. Crypto trader and analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin needs to hold the ,000 level as new support, cautioning that the ,000 and ,000 price levels could act as resistance and liquidity pockets. He warns that if Bitcoin loses the ,000 support, it’s back to the “chopfest” – further consolidation and volatility.
Andrew Tate Considers Dumping Fiat For BTC
In a surprising move, popular internet personality and self-proclaimed “Top G” Andrew Tate has announced his intention to abandon fiat currency and invest over 0 million into Bitcoin. In a post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, Tate declared, “I’m about to leave fiat completely and ape over 100M into BTC.”
Tate, who has faced numerous legal issues and has been banned from several social media platforms, cited his frustrations with the traditional banking system and fiat currency as the driving force behind this potential decision.
“I’m done with the banks. I’m done with their money. Done with the scams,” he wrote in the post.
In a follow-up post, Tate acknowledged that he has not finalized this decision, as he currently holds more cryptocurrency than fiat currency in his portfolio.
However, he hinted that he might “leave fiat completely,” suggesting that his preference for Bitcoin and other digital assets is growing.
As of press time, Bitcoin is testing the ,900 mark, having regained its bullish momentum. It remains to be seen how far the current rally can extend and whether the bullish momentum can survive potential selling pressure at higher price levels.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Latam Insights: Illegal Crypto Crackdown in Argentina, Bancolombia Launches Crypto Exchange
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Argentine authorities crack down on illegal crypto investment scam, Bancolombia launches cryptocurrency exchange Wenia, and Genesis Digital Assets announces flare gas-powered bitcoin mining site in Argentina. Argentine Authorities Crack Down on .25 Million […]
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Bitcoin Local Bottom In? Analyst Offers Insights
In an ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency markets, deciding the bottom of Bitcoin price correction is an endeavor that attracts interest from both investors and analysts. Joining the fray is cryptocurrency analyst and trader MilkyBull offering insights on the subject, claiming that Bitcoin’s local bottom has developed due to a certain development.
Following its weekend recovery out of bear market territory, the price of Bitcoin slightly decreased on Monday. However, MilkyBull is confident that the recent retracement might be the last before BTC turns to move on the upside.
Bitcoin Local Bottom Is In
According to the expert, given that the next liquidity grab interest is above ,557, the local bottom for Bitcoin is in. As a result, before moving on to the current all-time high of ,000, BTC will first clear the ,000 price level and consolidate. Thus, Bitcoin may eliminate the CME gap below either prior to or subsequent to eliminating the liquidity above ,975.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In? Retracement From ,800 Is Deeper And Took Longer To Form
The CME gap is a price difference that occurs between the Friday closing price and Sunday opening prices of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market. Therefore, the expert considers this development a good area for long trade, signaling a buying opportunity for BTC bullish investors.
MilkyBull further drew attention to a previous analysis that suggests Bitcoin could be poised for a rally due to historical patterns. The analyst noted that the 2017 price action shows that when BTC breached a new all-time high, there was a healthy retracement that was driven by liquidity before it surged to a cycle peak.
Given that BTC might be mirroring this pattern, MilkyBull’s analysis might suggest that BTC has undergone its last shakeout, and a move on the upside could be imminent. He also confirmed that the present consolidation range was paralleled by the preceding consolidation, which began to materialize from December 2023 to February 2024.
This pattern, identified as a manipulative strategy of the market makers (MMs) by the expert, is meant to remove degenerate Short-Term Holders (STHs), which are particularly vulnerable to price corrections below their cost base.
BTC Correction On The Horizon
While MilkyBull anticipates a rally, market expert Benjamin Cowen expects the leading cryptocurrency asset to drop in the upcoming days. Last week, Cowen claimed BTC’s Return On Investment (ROI) 12 days after the Bitcoin Halving event was the worst performance that the asset has experienced. According to Cowen, this is reasonable as it is the first time BTC is reaching a new all-time high before the Halving.
Almost a week later, there is still no improvement, as the analyst noted that BTC ROI is still performing worse than in previous cycles. Comparing this action with that of 2016, Cowen expects BTC to undergo a decline in the coming week.
During the time of writing, BTC was trading at ,970, demonstrating an increase of over 3% in the past week. While its market cap is down by 1.17%, its daily trading volume has garnered positive sentiment, rising by 40%.
Latam Insights: South African Ponzi Scheme Boss Dies in Brazil, Argentine House Passes Crypto Tax Regularization Bill
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: South African Ponzi scheme mastermind dies of a heart attack in Brazil, the Argentine House advances crypto tax regularization bill, and Buenos Aires targets Worldcoin with a new bill. South African Ponzi Scheme […]
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Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Venezuelan oil company PDVSA could use USDT to sidestep U.S. sanctions, Chivo Wallet denies hacking allegations, and Nubank expands its crypto functionality in Brazil. Venezuela Might Use USDT for Sidestepping Sanctions Venezuela is […]
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Latam Insights: Brazil Bans Crypto for Gambling, Worldcoin Battles Buenos Aires
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Brazil bans the use of cryptocurrency for gambling-related payments, and Worldcoin faces fines for alleged abusive behavior in Buenos Aires. Brazil Passes Rules Banning Cryptocurrency Payments for Gambling Brazil has legalized the use […]
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Latam Insights: Bitcoin Hurts El Salvador Credit Opportunities, Paraguay Supports Selling Power to Crypto Miners
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Bitcoin hinders El Salvador’s credit talks with the IMF, the Paraguayan Senate issues a statement supporting bitcoin miners, and Venezuela unveils a crypto-linked corruption scheme. Bitcoin Reportedly Hurts El Salvador Credit Opportunities With […]
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Latam Insights: Paraguay Targets Bitcoin Miners, Brazil Mulls Crypto Taxation Changes
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Paraguayan lawmakers introduce a bill to ban cryptocurrency mining, Brazil to change crypto taxation framework, and a poll finds that Latam believes CBDCs might help combat corruption in the region. Paraguayan Lawmakers Introduce […]
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