According to records, China has divested .3 billion in U.S. Treasury notes and agency bonds during the first quarter. Some analysts suggest this reduction in foreign exchange reserves might be China’s strategic move to leverage its holdings against the United States. China’s Treasury Holdings Drop Dramatically, Raising Red Flags for U.S. Markets China has significantly […]
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Down From the Peaks: Bitcoin Holds Strong, Closer to ATH Than Crypto Rivals
Despite bitcoin holding steady above the ,000 mark on Friday, the leading cryptocurrency is still down 9% from its all-time high (ATH). In comparison, most other cryptocurrencies are much further from their ATHs, with many alternative crypto assets still having a significant journey ahead to reach their former peaks. Bitcoin: 9% Below ATH as Altcoins […]
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The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data
Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest insights highlight a period he describes as “Quiet and Trending,” suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side pressures and shifts in volatility.
Bitcoin Follows The Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern
Since December, Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over 1.5 million BTC being sold. “Around 30% of this came out of GBTC, but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,” Check explains.
Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements might imply.
A striking aspect of Check’s analysis is the transformation in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “The overall realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in 2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,” states Check. This trend indicates a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early years.
Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s volatility: “What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!” He posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull run, rather than nearing its end.
A critical tool in Check’s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases. According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0 and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. “Only when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,” Check notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions.
Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to k, Check observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability of short-term holders. “The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a top-heavy market.”
He further highlights that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands.
Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart comparison of Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility against top-performing US stocks, showing that Bitcoin’s volatility is well within a manageable range.
Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the “out sized performance of the Magnificent-7,” which is counterbalanced by the poorer performance of the other components.
By highlighting the structural aspects of the current “Quiet and Trending” market phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial asset.
He concludes, “Overall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks fairly structured, following stair-stepping rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that can lead to instability.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,288.
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The First Web3 RPG From Saudi Arabia Astra Nova Launches a SocialFi Platform on Immutable zkEVM
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Report: CME Group to Launch Bitcoin Trading Amid Rising Demand From Wall Street
CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, is planning to launch bitcoin trading to capitalize on the surging demand among Wall Street money managers for exposure to the cryptocurrency sector, according to a report from the Financial Times. The Chicago-based group has reportedly been in discussions with traders interested in buying and selling the cryptocurrency […]
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Bitcoin Breaks Free: Emerging from Bearish Sentiment, Crypto Market Optimism Rises
Bitcoin price is up nearly 8% and it broke many hurdles. BTC is now consolidating gains and might correct in the short term toward ,000.
- Bitcoin started a strong increase and cleared the ,500 resistance zone.
- The price is trading above ,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at ,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could correct gains but the bulls might be active near ,000 and ,500.
Bitcoin Price Jumps 8%
Bitcoin price remained strong above the ,000 support zone. BTC formed a base and started a fresh increase above the ,000 level. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at ,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The pair rallied over 6% and broke many hurdles near the ,500 resistance. It even cleared the ,500 resistance. A new weekly high was formed at ,411 and the price is now consolidating gains.
It is holding gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the ,073 swing low to the ,411 high. Bitcoin price is also trading above ,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Immediate resistance is near the ,400 level. The first major resistance could be ,850. The next key resistance could be ,200. A clear move above the ,200 resistance might send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the ,000 resistance.
If there is a close above the ,000 resistance zone, the price could continue to move up. In the stated case, the price could rise toward ,000.
Are Dips Limited In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the ,400 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the ,150 level.
The first major support is ,500. If there is a close below ,500, the price could start to drop toward ,500 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the ,073 swing low to the ,411 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the ,000 support zone in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – ,150, followed by ,500.
Major Resistance Levels – ,400, ,800, and ,200.
Bitcoin Soaring Toward $84,000: Insights From Glassnode Co-Founders
In a remarkable turn of events, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of its recent trading range, recording a 7% surge in the past 24 hours alone. The cryptocurrency tests the ,000 resistance level, setting the stage for a potential move toward higher targets.
The latest momentum shift in Bitcoin’s price action has caught the attention of industry experts, particularly the co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. According to their analysis, the trigger for a larger market structure release has been in the works since the March highs.
Bitcoin Breaks Out
The co-founders of Glassnode believe this breakout has been coming for a long time. They state that they have been waiting for the trigger to unleash a major bullish structure since the March highs when Bitcoin reached its current all-time high (ATH) of ,700, and it looks like the market has finally done so.
They believe the trigger was the recent lower-than-expected US inflation figures and weaker retail sales data, which could prompt a more “dovish stance” from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Glassnode co-founders, this opens the door to a more dovish stance from the Fed. They explain that Bitcoin and the market liked this, and now they expect the price to reach ,000 before ,000 and then up towards ,000. They also believe the altcoins will follow this move strongly.
However, not all analysts are as bullish in the immediate term. Crypto trader and analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin needs to hold the ,000 level as new support, cautioning that the ,000 and ,000 price levels could act as resistance and liquidity pockets. He warns that if Bitcoin loses the ,000 support, it’s back to the “chopfest” – further consolidation and volatility.
Andrew Tate Considers Dumping Fiat For BTC
In a surprising move, popular internet personality and self-proclaimed “Top G” Andrew Tate has announced his intention to abandon fiat currency and invest over 0 million into Bitcoin. In a post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, Tate declared, “I’m about to leave fiat completely and ape over 100M into BTC.”
Tate, who has faced numerous legal issues and has been banned from several social media platforms, cited his frustrations with the traditional banking system and fiat currency as the driving force behind this potential decision.
“I’m done with the banks. I’m done with their money. Done with the scams,” he wrote in the post.
In a follow-up post, Tate acknowledged that he has not finalized this decision, as he currently holds more cryptocurrency than fiat currency in his portfolio.
However, he hinted that he might “leave fiat completely,” suggesting that his preference for Bitcoin and other digital assets is growing.
As of press time, Bitcoin is testing the ,900 mark, having regained its bullish momentum. It remains to be seen how far the current rally can extend and whether the bullish momentum can survive potential selling pressure at higher price levels.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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Proactive Detection by Certik Saves Wormhole Bridge From Potential $5 Million Hack
Certik, a security firm, prevented a potentially disastrous million exploit in the Wormhole cross-chain bridge by identifying a critical bug, showcasing the importance of proactive security practices and the benefits of open-source software in enhancing Web3 security standards. Wormhole, a project enabling token and data transfers between blockchain networks like Ethereum and Solana, had […]
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