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Bitcoin Halving Overhyped: Previous Cycle Led to Another 6-Month Crypto Winter
The Bitcoin halving is right around the corner, less than three total months away. The event is said to cause extreme bullishness and could send Bitcoin to prices of ,000 or higher shortly after the event takes place.
But while crypto analysts are expecting a massive rally following the Bitcoin halving, the last halving was the start of yet another crypto winter, before the bull market truly began.
Shock and Awe: Bitcoin Halving Expectations May Not Match Reality
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in May 2020 might take crypto investors by surprise.
The digitally-coded event will slash the block reward miners receive for validating each new block added to Bitcoin’s blockchain by half.
Related Reading | Analyst: Crypto Market Pullback Imminent But May Not Occur For Months
The fewer supply miners receive, doubles the cost of production per BTC overnight.
Because of the cost of production so largely outweighs the price of Bitcoin, miners stop selling until prices catch up.
The lack of supply creates an imbalance of demand that causes valuations to surge exponentially in the already scarce asset.
Because of this design, Bitcoin is expected to skyrocket in value after the halving.
Stock-to-flow models put the value per BTC at ,000 or higher immediately following the halving, due to the impact the event has on the limited supply of the cryptocurrency.
And investors are correct, at the core. Each halving has kickstarted massive, year-long rallies that led to new all-time highs after the crypto asset goes parabolic from FOMO.
$BTC #bitcoin I'm not sure where this idea that halvening = ULTRA MOON NOW came from…but looking at 2016
– Entirely sure our time will come but– What if we are here, but at 1/7th the speed?– Are you prepared for a downtrend into next Winter? pic.twitter.com/RuYzWmYpWy
— COFFEE (@overheardcoffee) February 19, 2020
However, it isn’t a situation where the halving happens, and suddenly Bitcoin takes off like a rocket ship.
Instead, what has happened in the past, was that a pre-halving rally led Bitcoin to new local highs, but failed to set a new all-time high ahead of the event.
Could Another Six-Month Downtrend Plague the Crypto Market Post-Halving?
Once the Bitcoin halving took place, days later, a massive, steep, 40% selloff happened that took a full six-months to play out.
After Bitcoin topped out in June 2019, it fell into another extended six-month downtrend, from ,000 to ,400.
If a similar selloff happens once again post Bitcoin halving, the price should fall from roughly ,000 back to ,500 support, before the true bull market begins.
After this last six-month-long downtrend, the first-ever cryptocurrency on experienced limited pullbacks while a parabolic advance reached higher and higher until a new record was set.
Related Reading | Ancient Math May Be the Key to Making Crypto Bull Market Riches
Crypto investors looking for an example of this need to look no further than Litecoin. Just ahead of its halving the altcoin experienced a deep selloff that wiped out much of the asset’s pre-halving gains.
However, those that can withstand the coming post-Bitcoin halving selloff, will end up riding the rally all the way to a new all-time high.
NewsBTC
Why Have Altcoins Slumped Back to Crypto Winter Levels?
A dip below ,000 has been on the cards for Bitcoin for some time now. What is surprising though is that the altcoins have been pummeled again with several high cap crypto asserts dropping as much as 8 percent overnight.
Bitcoin Back Below k
After almost three weeks of consolidation the big Bitcoin move finally arrived and, as expected, it was down again. Things went south in late US trading when BTC plunged from ,100 to just above ,800 in a 4% purge according to Tradingview.com.
The crypto asset is trading back where it was during a brief dip at the end of last month. The difference this time is that there has been no bounce and it appears to have settled below k.
This could lead to further consolidation here or another drop down to support at ,600. This would not be unexpected either as there have been more bearish predictions for BTC that those opposing the current trend.
The BTC fear and greed index is still buried in the twenties showing ‘extreme fear’, a sentiment that is unlikely to change for the rest of the year.
Bitcoin investor and analyst ‘PlanB’ has observed the increase in BTC dominance even with the latest purge.
Now we are approaching 70% bitcoin dominance again .. what happened 14 July 2017 when btc dominance dropped from 74% to 53% in one day???
Btc price doesn't show weird movement 13-14 July 2017. I don't know of any new altcoin launch or fork on that day. Is it a change in calc? pic.twitter.com/Zf8RLWRRYJ
— PlanB [Jan/3➞ ] (@100trillionUSD) December 16, 2019
This can only mean one thing – a lot more pain for the altcoins.
Crypto Avalanche
Over the past few hours around billion has been dumped out of crypto markets and altcoins are feeling the pressure again.
The move has sent many of them barreling back towards their prices this time last year when 80-90 percent corrections were commonplace.
Ethereum has dumped 6% to a nine month low of 4. It is now not far off its yearly bottom and a long way from the 2019 top.
Crypto twitter tribalism and the further propagation of ETH FUD from rival blockchain supporters and Bitcoin maximalists have done it no favors either.
Ethereum is not the worst performing altcoin in the top ten though as Litecoin, EOS and Binance Coin have dumped 7-8% in the past few hours.
LTC is on the verge of dropping below which is almost at crypto winter levels, and EOS is not far behind. More pain is going on further down the table with Stellar, Cardano, Cosmos, IOTA, Maker and Dash.
There is only one real survivor at the moment and that is Tezos which has actually gained over night adding over 3% to reach .70.
CMC is also posting some spurious market cap figures for something called MINDOL as it surges up the chart pumping 20% today according to the site.
Another crypto winter appears imminent for the altcoins at least as gains in 2019 become a distant and frozen memory.
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Indian Parliament Will Not Consider Total Crypto Ban in Winter Session
n The Indian government will not discuss its draft bill on a proposed total ban on crypto in the winter session of Parliament, as was previously plannedn
CryptScout #BitFeed RSS – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency News 24/7
Crypto Winter Is Here Bitcoin Treads Trading Range Bottom After Crash
n Bitcoin price shows little signs of recovery from crash to .3Kn
CryptScout #BitFeed RSS – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency News 24/7
Whats Next for the Industry as Crypto Winter Thaws
n How did the so-called crypto winter affect the entire industryn
CryptScout #BitFeed RSS – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency News 24/7
Crypto Winter Returning to Altcoins as Double Digit Declines Decimate Markets
In a pattern that has been rinsed and repeated countless times this year, crypto markets are crumbling as Bitcoin failed to hold support. The altcoins are still hopelessly tied to their big brother so any pain for it is magnified for them.
Over Billion Exits Crypto Space
Over the past 24 hours crypto markets have shrunk to their lowest levels for almost three months. As billions left the space total market capitalization plummeted to 5 billion. All gains since late May have now been wiped out and altcoins are in danger of returning to their crypto winter levels if the rout continues.
According to Tradingview.com Bitcoin dominance is still at 71.5% despite a thousand dollar dump. This means that the altcoins have suffered greater losses today, many of them in double digit declines. Bitcoin’s intraday high to low marks a loss of around 9% however the pain is greater elsewhere on crypto markets.
Ethereum, which has seen prices eroding for the past two months, has capitulated below 0 in a 10 percent plunge overnight. A death cross on the four hour chart a few days ago is about to be repeated on the daily chart as the 50 day moving average drops closer to the 200 day MA. This is a major bearish indicator which signals continuation of the down trend.
Development work on the Ethereum network is still ongoing with six new upgrades planned in the Istanbul hard fork slated for mid-October. This has not prevented the bears dumping the asset in panic over big brother’s fall through support however.
There has been little love for XRP either as the Ripple token gets crushed back to a yearly low of .25. A lot of bad press and FUD has inspired little confidence in the world’s third largest crypto asset recently.
The rest are faring no better with double digit losses for Litecoin, Binance Coin, EOS, Monero, Cardano, Tron, Dash, Ethereum Classic, Tezos and Chainlink. There are only a handful of low cap altcoins surviving the purge today and they include Golem, SOLVE and HedgeTrade.
The mess has not been missed by industry observers with RT anchor, Max Keiser, commenting;
“#Bitcoin dominance climbs as alt-season fails to materialize and alts resume downward trek to oblivion. BCH and BSV have another 90% drop to go.”
#Bitcoin dominance climbs as alt-season fails to materialize and alts resume downward trek to oblivion. BCH and BSV have another 90% drop to go. pic.twitter.com/muSHYRh6H1
— Max Keiser, tweet poet. (@maxkeiser) August 29, 2019
Time to Be Bullish on Altcoins?
Some are clinging perilously onto hope however and see opportunity in the misfortune of many crypto assets. ‘WelsonTrader’ tweeted;
“Accumulating some alts within the next 24 hours, as I think we may see a bounce here! Bitcoin may also bounce at support around 00-50! If we break below that, expect a blooody week!”
All eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move as the alts are bound to follow. At the moment it is also clinging perilously onto support around ,450, but teetering on the edge of a deeper chasm.
Image from Shutterstock
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“Our product saved us from the 2018 crypto winter” — Interview with Andy Ellis from Horizon State
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Altcoins Annihilated as Crypto Winter Threatens to Return
This week in crypto has been a miserable one for altcoins with a number of them dumping double digits. Bitcoin has largely held on to its gains but the same cannot be said for its siblings which are in danger of freezing over once again.
Another Frosty Week in Crypto For Alts
This entire year has been pretty bleak for the majority of altcoins which have barely managed to drag themselves out of the frozen quagmire of crypto winter. Since last Friday, total crypto market capitalization has grown by 7 percent but it is by no effort of any of the altcoins.
Bitcoin, which recorded a new hash rate high, and increased by over 12 percent over the same seven day period, is responsible for all of those market gains. At the time of writing total market cap is at 4 billion, billion higher than this time last week. According to Tradingview, BTC dominance is almost 71 percent and the altcoins are getting obliterated.
Ethereum has dumped over 5 percent today in a slide back below 5. Since its high of 8 earlier this week, ETH has been in free fall plunging 10 percent to current levels. With no fundamentals in sight and weak technical, Ethereum could be back below 0 by next week, especially if big brother decides to pull back again.
XRP has lost a further 2 percent today and is also in danger of dropping below a psychological price level as it nears .300. Bitcoin Cash is 3 percent down on the day and over 8 percent down on the week as BCH drops back to 5.
Litecoin is in a world of pain in a post halving slump. LTC made it back into three figures earlier this week just as the block reward halved but the days that followed have been dismal. Since the weekly high of 5 Litecoin has slumped 17 percent back to where it trades at the moment.
The carnage does not end there; EOS has crashed below as it sheds over 6 percent today. Since the beginning of the week losses have been closer to 10 percent as this once hopeful crypto token plunges down the market cap charts.
Other big losers today include Chainlink, NEO, IOTA, Cosmos, NEM, Maker, Ontology, and Zcash. Altcoins have been in pain for the past month but losses appear to be accelerating as the majority of them slide back towards the icy depths of crypto winter.
Binance Coin Shines Through
There are only a couple of shining stars in the altcoin world at the moment. Binance Coin is one that continues to make progress with a further gain today keeping BNB above . A number of incentives and developments from the world’s top exchange this week has kept its crypto coin afloat while those all around it slowly drown.
Image from shutterstock
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Altcoin Apocalypse Continues as Crypto Winter Threatens to Return
The big Bitcoin correction has not been unexpected. The mess it has left the rest of the crypto world in, however, is still being questioned. The altcoin apocalypse has deepened this Monday morning as double digit losses are flashing red across the boards today.
Crypto Markets Hemorrhage Billion
In a weekend long selloff cryptocurrency markets have lost almost billion in what has been one of the year’s most violent retreats. At the end of last week total crypto market capitalization was around 0 billion and Bitcoin seemed pretty comfortable consolidating.
By Monday morning markets were battered and bruised, down to around 0 billion, their lowest levels for a month. The big slide started mid-week after Bitcoin tapped ,000 and instantly retreated forming a big double top which is traditionally a bearish pattern.
A 25 percent plus correction sent BTC back below k again during early trading in Asia but it recovered back in to five figures and dominance has remained high at over 66 percent. The altcoins, however, have been utterly trounced leaving no survivors on bloody Monday.
The massive altcoin exodus has sent many of them close to levels not seen since the depths of crypto winter, six months ago. Meager gains over the past couple of months during Bitcoin’s epic rally have been obliterated taking all hopes of ‘altseason’ with them.
Altcoin Apocalypse
Ethereum has been crushed, from trading comfortably over 0, ETH is now in danger of dropping below 0 again. The slide has widened the gap from all-time high back to 85 percent as Ethereum tumbled nearly twenty percent over the weekend.
A flash crash to 0 yesterday was an ominous sign and analysts expect Ethereum to make further losses especially if Bitcoin drops back into four figures. The long term prospects for ETH prices are good but at the moment it is in a world of pain.
The situation is equally grim for the rest of the altcoins today. Ripple’s XRP came out relatively unscathed, only dropping 4.5 percent to fall back to .312 but the same could not be said for Litecoin. All halving fomo has been forgotten even though the event is just 20 days away now. LTC prices plunged back into double digits as the silver to BTC’s gold crashed below today.
Bitcoin’s offshoots, Cash and SV, have both been battered dumping over 15 percent back to 0 and 0 respectively. Binance Coin, EOS and Stellar have all shed 8 percent on the day and Tether is creeping back up the market cap chart as the printers keep churning out more tokens.
More pain can be seen further down the altcoin charts with double digit dumps going on with Tron, Cardano, Monero, Dash, Chainlink, NEO, IOTA, Cosmos, and Ethereum Classic.
Losses are that bad that the frozen wastelands of crypto winter do not appear to be that far away again for many of the altcoins.
Image from Shutterstock
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