As of April 29, 2024, bitcoin remains under considerable bearish pressure according to multiple indicators across different time frames. Currently trading at ,279, bitcoin has shown a 24-hour range between ,994 and ,929. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s (BTC) daily chart presents a stark bearish trend with a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that sellers […]
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NYSE Considers 24-Hour Trading Model in Response to Crypto Market Trends
Cryptocurrency markets operate continuously, trading every day of the week, around the clock. In a similar vein, reports indicate that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is exploring the possibility of shifting to 24/7 operations. The data team at NYSE has conducted a survey among its investors, revealing a strong interest in the availability of […]
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Historical Trends Show What To Expect For Bitcoin Price Following The Halving
The 2024 Bitcoin halving is only two days away, and there are already varying expectations of what might happen to the BTC price once the event is completed. One way to get an idea of how it could play out for the Bitcoin price, though, is through historical data and how the cryptocurrency has performed at times like these.
Bitcoin Price Trends For Previous Halvings
There have been three halvings so far since Bitcoin was first launched in 2009 and with each one, Bitcoin has demonstrated various reactions to the event. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the second happened on July 9, 2016, and the last one was on May 11, 2020.
For the purpose of this report, only the last two halving will be referenced given that adoption had began to climb at the time that these two happened. The 2016 halving happened when Bitcoin was trading around 0, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price would drop another 30%, reaching as low as 0 before climbing back up once again.
Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price was trending just under ,000, and following the halving, would see a drop in price as well. However, this drop was not as significant as the 2016 drop, with the BTC price only falling around 15% during this time.
This has formed quite a trend with the halving, where the Bitcoin price falls after the event, which is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, then BTC could see a sharp drop in price despite the expectation that the halving will be bullish for price.
However, it is important to consider that subsequent halvings have seen a lower post-halving crash compared to their predecessors. So, if this holds this year, Bitcoin could still be looking at a crash but to a much lesser degree. For example, the 2020 post-halving crash was half of the 2016 post-halving crash, so holding this trend, the crash this time around could only be an around 7-8% crash.
BTC Deviates From Established Halving Trends
While the historical data does suggest where Bitcoin could be headed following the crash, it is also important to note that the digital asset has deviated from a number of pre-halving trends. One of these deviations is the fact that the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened before. This could suggest that there will be a complete deviation from these established trends, meaning that a crash may not follow the halving after all.
Another deviation is that the few weeks leading up to the last two Bitcoin halvings have been green. However, in 2024, the last three weeks leading up to the halving have been red as the BTC price has been in decline. This also lends credence to the fact that there could also be a deviation from its post-halving trends.
One thing to keep in mind though, is that the crypto market has always been uncertain and Bitcoin has a habit of doing what no one expected. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a pull back from the extreme greed territory, but it continues to remain in greed, which means investors are still bullish. In this case, if Bitcoin were to do the opposite of what is expected, then it could follow the established trend and crash back down.
Analyst Cites Favorable Market Trends That Could See Bitcoin Touch $300,000 This Cycle
Amid the renewed strength recently displayed by Bitcoin, Michael Van De Poppe, a recognized cryptocurrency analyst and trader has offered an intriguing prediction for BTC, highlighting that the crypto asset is likely to reach the 0,000 threshold in this bull cycle.
Bitcoin Price Targetted At Unprecedented Heights This Cycle
Over the past month, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating and hasn’t been able to sustain its rise beyond its new peak of ,000. However, things could soon be changing, as Michael Van De Poppe expects the coin to surge immensely in the short term.
His forecast coincides with anticipation around the upcoming Bitcoin Halving expected to take place in less than 12 days, fueling optimism within the crypto community.
According to the expert, the largest cryptocurrency asset by market cap is still experiencing significant resistance. Nonetheless, if Bitcoin manages to break out of this zone, the coin could witness a progression towards new all-time highs in the coming months.
Given that BTC achieved the ,000 price level ahead of the halving event, Poppe believes that it is likely to surge to unprecedented levels, particularly topping out at 0,000 in this bull run.
The post read:
Bitcoin still facing crucial resistance. If this breaks, then we will be seeing a continuation towards new all-time highs. Bitcoin at ,000 pre-halving. Likely 0,000 this cycle.
Poppe underscored that the price of Bitcoin returned to ,000 level over the weekend. As a result, he has pointed out bullish indicators that are presently occurring in the crypto landscape.
The analyst also noted that the strength of the cryptocurrency markets has now exceeded our perceptions, and dips in altcoins represent opportunities for good entries. In addition, BTC’s price action demonstrates the potential to reach a new all-time high pre-halving, and the shift in favor of altcoins is on the horizon.
Altcoin Season Set To Kick Off In Weeks
Poppe is super bullish toward an ‘altcoin season’. However, it is important to note that altcoins’ value has frequently coincided with shifts in Bitcoin’s supremacy. But even though Bitcoin’s dominance is still at its peak prior to the halving, Poppe thinks these coins still have a lot of momentum.
He advocates that a new altcoin season will undoubtedly begin in the upcoming weeks. “We always have one, we have seen Meme coins, Solana (SOL) ecosystem, and AI,” he stated.
The expert’s statement suggests that the Solana ecosystem, AI projects, and meme coins in recent months have led the altcoin market. Thus, Michael Van De Poppe has contended that in the impending alt season, crypto initiatives that prioritize the tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA), the Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem, and the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) are likely to be next, paving the way for alts this cycle.
At the time of writing, the altcoin’s overall market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum was valued at 3.47 billion. This indicates a 2% increase in the market cap in the past 24 hours.
South Korea’s Crypto Market Continues to Defy Global Trends With Premium Prices
Metrics reveal that cryptocurrency premiums in South Korea consistently outpace the global average. As of now, bitcoin exchanges hands at ,245 per piece globally, while on the South Korean platform Upbit, it’s being traded at ,513 each. Additionally, March witnessed a notable increase in Upbit’s trade volume, skyrocketing by 172.25% from February’s data. Ethereum, Solana, […]
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Bitcoin: Will This “Dry Powder” and Historical Trends Fuel A Price Boom?
While Bitcoin has dipped from its recent highs of around ,000, some analysts are urging investors to stay calm and even see this as a buying opportunity. So far, Bitcoin prices have remained under pressure, trickling lower in the past trading week.
Are There Similarities With The Bitcoin Bull Run Of 2020?
Though the downward momentum is slowing down, and there has been no confirmation of the April 2 dump, the failure of bulls to convincingly flow back and drive the coin above ,000 remains a concern for some traders.
Even so, taking a bullish stand, one analyst on X compares the current formation with that of 2020. Pointing to the cyclic nature of prices and the inevitability of retracements from bottoms and peaks, the trader expects prices to bounce.
The trader said that in 2020, when Bitcoin prices fell, shaking out weak hands, the recovery sparked a bull run that forcefully saw the coin surge above previous all-time highs of ,000. The analyst seems to allude to the retracement before the breakout as a catapult that eventually fed the “legendary” bull run, which saw Bitcoin float to as high as ,000.
Based on this comparison, the trader is adamant that it may, reading from history, be the best time to “sell” at around spot levels. Still, for now, buyers can consider doubling down until there is a clear trend definition and shake-off of the current bear formation. Currently, BTC has strong rejections in the ,700 to ,000 liquidation zone, marking last week’s highs.
Watch Out For The “Dry Powder”
Besides technical candlestick formation, another trader thinks buyers better HODL even with sellers in control.
In a post on X, the analyst said Tether Holdings, the issuer of USDT, and Circle, the issuer of USDC, recently minted billions. On April 2, Tether issued 1 billion USDT on Tron, while Circle issued 250 million USDC on Solana.
This development, the analyst said, means there is “plenty of dry powder.” Stablecoins like USDT and USDC offer stability in the crypto markets, providing a refuge for crypto holders whenever prices tumble.
However, they can also act as conduits of liquidity from the traditional market, providing an avenue for interested users to get exposure to top coins or even engage in activities such as decentralized finance (DeFi).
In the past, prices often edged higher when there were huge stablecoin mints.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Sharp Downturns as Bearish Trends Dominate Price Movements
Bitcoin witnessed a notable intraday swing from ,569 to ,794, reflecting a volatile market environment. Despite this turbulence, its market capitalization still holds strong at just over .3 trillion, supported by a substantial 24-hour trading volume of billion. Bitcoin The analysis of bitcoin’s (BTC) oscillators and moving averages (MAs) presents a mixed signal for […]
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Historical Trends Unveil Bitcoin Peak Timing in Current Bull Cycle
Since the price of Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high, it has shown immense momentum, surging even higher, surpassing the ,000 price mark, while leading the charge to what is considered the “biggest bull run in history.”
Bitcoin Lengthening Cycles Beyond Previous All-Time High
Many crypto analysts predict the world’s largest cryptocurrency will peak within the next few months following the surge. Some have even pinpointed the exact timeframe in which this might happen in this bull cycle.
Rekt Capital, a cryptocurrency analyst and trader, has shared his insights on Bitcoin’s potential to top this bull cycle within the same timeframe as previous bull cycles.
According to Rekt Capital, when Bitcoin breaks its old peak, it usually executes a “Bull Market Top” between 266-315 days. Given that BTC surpassed its previous all-time high last week, 266-315 days might be the approximate time of the next bull market peak.
Specifically, this could happen around late November 2024 or very late January 2025. Even though this cycle is accelerating, Bitcoin’s days above its old peak seem to be taking longer.
The post reads:
Bitcoin broke its old All Time Highs last week, the next Bull Market Peak may thus occur in 266-315 days. That is very late November 2024 or very late January 2025. However, as fast as this cycle may be, it appears that the amount of days that Bitcoin spends beyond past all-time highs is actually lengthening.
Drawing attention to the preceding bull cycles, the expert further emphasized that before topping out in 2013, “BTC’s surge lasted for 268 days.” Also, in 2017, it “topped out in 280 days,” indicating an increase of 14 days.
Meanwhile, in 2021, the crypto asset “rallied for 315 days before reaching its peak,” indicating a 35-day increase compared to 2017. Therefore, this historical trend shows that BTC has exceeded past peaks by an average of 14 and 35 days.
As a result, by adding the initial bull market peak timeframe of 266-315 days with the 14-35 days, Rekt Capital has pinpointed the coin to top out within 280 and 350 days. In particular, this could take place in the middle of December 2024 or in the middle of February 2025.
Is BTC Breaking Its Preceding Pinnacle Too Early?
Dennis Porter, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Satoshi Action Fund, has revealed his optimistic view regarding BTC’s latest milestone. Porter mentioned that the asset reaching a new height marks the first time it has happened ahead of the halving event.
According to the CEO, Bitcoin is witnessing a massive “fund inflow from institutional players not seen in the past.” He added, “many states are now seeking to enact legislation supporting BTC.” Thus, he has urged the community to remain unwavering, as “history is being made.”
A Dual Tech Saga: Disruptive Trends From ETHDenver And MWC
As the first quarter of 2024 ends, the crypto industry has also seen the conclusion of major events, including ETHDenver. The 2018-launched mythical event has grown as the industry matures, becoming a crucial venue for founders and community members to observe new developments across the crypto ecosystem.
In addition, crypto and blockchain took center stage at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain. The event, which took place last week, hosted over 100,000 attendees from over 200 countries and 2,700 exhibitors from different tech sectors.
We sat down with Claudia Richoux, Founder and CEO of Banyan, and Sheraz Ahmed, Managing Partner at STORM, to discuss these conferences, and get a behind-the-scenes look at the trends and key topics for the industry now and in the future. This is what they told us.
“… people actually really don’t know where we’re going or don’t know where we’re headed.”
Sheraz Ahmed, STORM Managing Partner
ETHDenver: A Chat With Filecoin-Based Banyan Founder Claudia Richoux
Claudia Richoux founded Banyan on top of the Filecoin network to empower users and give them control over their data. In that sense, the project is an alternative to Amazon Web Services (AWS), as it pushes for data sovereignty and price optimization for startups and companies.
In a world built on centralized data storage solutions, individuals are at risk of suffering from censorship, but companies face different risks as their operations become more and more reliable on a single point of failure. We spoke with Claudia about this and much more:
Q: What do you think about ETHDenver? What’s the sentiment and overall vibe at the conference, and what are people talking about behind the scenes?
Claudia:
(…) people have been talking a lot about crypto and AI stuff and decentralized compute because that’s really, really exciting. A lot of things like Filecoin (…) we’ve all built storage and so now it’s time to figure out compute; computes really exciting, (it’s) like 60% of most AWS bills that you’re going to see from startups.
So, being able to undercut the prices there and open up more freedom to compute on different platforms is super exciting. That’s something that I’ve seen a lot of the Filecoin stuff. And then at the Ethereum stuff, I’ve seen a lot of re-staking stuff. I went to some ZK (Zero Knowledge) and scaling events that were really interesting as well, and there were a lot of cool toolkits coming out.
Q: Why is data storage and cloud storage so important and why would they be important in the future? And maybe you can talk a little bit about Banyan and what you guys do?
Claudia:
Yeah, for sure. So I mean, a lot of people come at decentralization from the angle of, “oh, it’s so important that we can’t get censored.” And that’s important. However, it’s not important to 90% of the market because most startups are not worried they’re going to get censored. Most large enterprises are not worried that they’re going to get censored. What they are worried about coming from AWS is that AWS is just going to charge them in the same amount of money. Their business will be incredibly dependent on that, (and) there’s nothing they can do and they’re just kind of stuck and they’re (spending) a huge amount of their runway is going into the pocket of AWS.
So I think decentralization is really interesting. Less for the censorship angle, more for the idea of competition. So yeah, if you have 10 different service providers, all of which you can trust because of some combination of cryptographic incentives or notary systems or auditing systems, and they are competing for your business instead of you using AWS (…).
(…) And yeah, if you have that competition, you’re going to have hopefully way lower prices. And we’ve already seen in the open source world that open source software development where you can have one piece of software that is kind of the commons. It’s maintained by a lot of different people who are all contributing to the same piece of software, which can save costs because you’re not duplicating work as much (…).
So, with an open thing where we’re collaborating instead of competing on the development of this new cloud, we can probably drive costs down. We can probably make people fight for a more sensible margin than what AWS is charging people right now. So I think that decentralization is going to be really, really good for cutting cloud costs if we actually execute on this vision and generally just for accessibility of compute resources and making it so that you’re not having as much cloud block and dealing with that. (…) What Banyan does is we take what Filecoin has already built and we make it ready for an enterprise user to use. And that can be a big company, that can be a startup, that can be a small and medium enterprise (…).
(…) we’re very focused on that. When people ask me what I do in Web3, I say, I onboard data on Filecoin. And they’re like, is that a startup? Why is that an entire company? And I think they just, there’s an immense amount of complexity in actually bringing a decentralized startup to the enterprise, but we’re almost in GA, we’re about to launch and finally reaching the exciting part of this journey.
Mobile World Congress: Insights From STORM’s Sheraz Ahmed
Sheraz Ahmed, Managing Partner at STORM, attended the Mobile World Congress and gave us a look into the massive event. While not directly speaking with Richoux, they coincided on several points: the importance of data user ownership, and decentralize data storage solutions as a key sector for the industry. Speaking about the MWC, Sheraz told us:
Q: What do you think about the Mobile World Congress? What were the main topics of the conversation, and how do they intertwine with blockchain and cryptocurrencies? Do you think this technology and assets are important to the conversation?
Sheraz:
(…) I think a core point is that it’s not only about mobile phones, it’s become about mobile technology and interconnectivity play at large. So everything from Wi-Fi 5G, satellite connection and the likes. And I think when you look at that from a broader play of data interconnectivity, because all of these companies, their main business model is the data angle. It was very interesting to discuss, see and even challenge some of those things. Honestly, when I was looking at some of the companies, seeing what they were doing and the likes, and maybe this is my perspective, but I felt like there was a lot of underlying uncertainty, so I’ve been to a few of these conferences before that have like 60,000, 80,000 people, et cetera.
I’ve never seen so much interest in the consultancy, strategic consultancy side of an industry in terms of if you look at who were some of the main pavilions, I mean you had Huawei, that was huge. Some of these huge phone makers, et cetera, et cetera, they are the mobiles of Mobile World Congress. But then if you looked at how busy they were from a retail perspective, yes people would check out the new folks, check new innovation, great. But then if you really looked behind the scenes and saw the equally big consultancy firm pavilions, Deloitte, PWC, et cetera, et cetera, they were as big. So they had invested as much money, and I saw at least twice as big in terms of, or in terms of volume of people that were going there.
And what that meant or what that triggered me to believe is the fact that people actually really don’t know where we’re going or don’t know where we’re headed. There was a huge reliance on consultants to tell big companies what to do. What is their strategy, what should they innovate in now, how should they innovate? And then speaking with some of the consultants themselves, they’re always very macro, very strategic, etc. But it was interesting to see that they themselves are moving away from just consultancy. That is like advisory report. Here you go. This is your strategy. Okay, well if we have the experts in-house, why don’t we build the technology or technology that then we can use to service/support some of these larger organizations on an ongoing basis basis. And I thought that that was quite interesting because they’re essentially innovating in their business model as the innovation landscape moves forward.
But I definitely believe that there is this large wave of, what’s the right way to put it, a form of uncontrolled technological innovation or I feel like everyone’s a bit out of their depths. Things are moving so fast that the larger organizations are building things that they believe are going to be important to the consumers over the next years to come. And they’re building layer on top of layer of innovation that is driven by the money that they’re making and some things that the consultants are telling them and the likes. But it seems like, and again, maybe this is from my perspective, but it does seem like it’s kind of getting out of their hands in some of the innovation that’s going forward (…). But there is a lot of, “oh, what the hell? Technology has definitely made a leap into its next era, it’s next phase, it’s next generation.”
And if you pull that back to the Web3 kind of angle and you look at the metaverse as an aggregation of those kind of four wave technologies, I definitely believe that that is becoming real today with how interconnected we can be through some of those mobile technologies through some of the augmented reality, virtual reality and technologies. Let’s say applications that are coming out or hardware, software that is coming out. And it was quite crazy in terms of, it didn’t necessarily feel like, there was this one kind of common one. Common direction, yes, maybe in a way. But it really felt like there was a lot happening. A lot of people are trying to shoot not in the dark, but shoot in a lot of different places to see okay, where are we headed? And it was kind of a moment as well where you can look at in each moment of uncertainty, chaos, there’s a lot of opportunity. It felt like we were at that pivotal moment and the energy of opportunism was in the air.
Q: Microsoft, JP Morgan, Accenture, and many other big names in one place talking about the emergences of new technologies, such as AI, blockchain, etc., and it seems like every year it is easier to see the likes of Google joining hands with a crypto project, but what are they contributing with? Where can we see these collaborations actually coming to life?
Sheraz:
Yeah, I think today most of the blockchain world is based on centralized cloud storage, cloud computing. And there were quite some applications at the Mobile World Congress that were looking at decentralized forms of cloud storage. Now if you look at the Amazon’s AWS or Google, these kind of companies like Google Cloud is heavily pushing for more blockchain based businesses to run their nodes on their clouds and the likes, right? So I think that was a big push there.
That is a push there definitely that’s foreseeable. I’ve seen a lot of them start pushing more kind of innovation programs that are not only blockchain led, but that some of the ideas that they’re trying to bring in, they want to have some form of distributed technology as an underlying for maybe some properties that blockchain can provide.
So I think that was a big one. It wasn’t really spoken at the Mobile World Congress, but I think the whole zero knowledge kind of privacy side is going to be super important play when it comes to data and especially when it comes to interconnectivity of different devices together and being able to, you don’t want your data to just be flown through different channels and systems left, right and center. You’re going to want to have some form of encrypted, but also privacy filtered innovation or applications that allow you to ensure that what you’re putting into a certain database isn’t going in and out and everywhere. So I think that’s an important one that is coming as well. And I think that’s something that some of the larger organizations are working towards.
Cover image from Dall-E, chart from Tradingview
Latam Insights: Mexican Billionaire Ricardo Salinas’ Bitcoin Investment Advice, Bitso’s Latam Trends Report
Welcome to Latam Insights, a compendium of Latin America’s most relevant crypto and economic news during the last week. In this issue: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego offers bitcoin investment advice, Bitso’s report finds Latam is a bitcoin region, and Honduras bans financial institutions from dealing with crypto. Mexican Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Gives Bitcoin Investment […]
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