The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) newest surveillance tool, the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT), has sparked significant concerns among privacy advocates and legal experts, who warn of an unprecedented expansion of government monitoring over financial transactions. SEC’s CAT Sparks Privacy Concerns and Legal Challenges Recent developments, such as the SEC implementation of the Consolidated […]
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Software Engineer: Anchoring AI on Public Blockchains Aids in Establishing a ‘Permanent Provenance Trail’
With artificial intelligence (AI) seemingly destined to become central to everyday digital applications and services, anchoring AI models on public blockchains potentially helps to “establish a permanent provenance trail,” asserted Michael Heinrich, CEO of 0G Labs. According to Heinrich, such a provenance trail enables “ex-post or real-time monitoring analysis” to detect any tampering, injection of […]
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Polymarket Predicts Trump as 2024 US Election Winner With 48% Chance, Biden and Haley Trail in Predictions
With the U.S. presidential election just about nine months on the horizon, it appears that American electors are poised to encounter familiar faces from the 2020 race — Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Recent data from the decentralized crypto-based predictions platform Polymarket suggests that Trump, the nation’s 45th president, is currently leading with a 48% chance of victory.
2024 U.S. Election Forecast: Trump Ahead With 48% on Polymarket, Biden Trails
As the U.S. election competition intensifies, despite Vivek Ramaswamy‘s withdrawal, former President Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead over his Republican rivals in recent months. Trump recently triumphed in the Iowa Caucus, securing the initial victory in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race. He achieved a commanding lead with a 51% margin, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in second place, and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, clinching the third spot.
According to the forecasting platform Polymarket, Donald Trump is favored with an 89% likelihood of securing the Republican party’s nomination, while Nikki Haley stands at a 6% probability. On the Democratic front, Joe Biden is predicted to have a 78% chance of nomination, outpacing California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 6% chance. Essentially, Polymarket operates as a decentralized platform for predictions, allowing users to buy and trade shares based on potential events and outcomes. This market leverages blockchain technology for enhanced transparency and security.
As the election approaches on Nov. 5, 2024, the current trends on Polymarket suggest Trump is the frontrunner with a 48% advantage, surpassing Biden’s 36%. Following Biden, Haley is seen with a 3% likelihood of winning the general election. Intriguingly, despite his absence from the race, Vivek Ramaswamy holds a 2% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr. also holds a 2% chance of victory, as indicated by Polymarket’s data. Furthermore, this cryptocurrency-driven prediction market is not the sole betting platform indicating a Trump victory.
Oddschecker’s data reveals Trump with a 45.5% likelihood of clinching the election, compared to Biden’s 33.3% probability. Nikki Haley is given a 5.9% chance of victory in their analysis. Meanwhile, the web portal Bet Ohio positions Trump in the lead with a 46% chance, Biden following at 36%, and Haley at 9% in the race for the 2024 presidency. Notably, both Kennedy and DeSantis are pegged at a 3% chance, as recorded by Bet Ohio on Jan. 17, 2024. Additionally, the betting site Covers indicates Trump is ahead with a 47.6% chance, while Biden trails behind at 34.8%.
What do you think about Polymarket predicting Trump winning the 2024 U.S. election? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Unveiled Trail: Q4 Tumble, ETF Battles, Mt. Gox Drama, And Economic Shivers Await
In a recent legal win for Grayscale against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin (BTC) soared to ,000. However, the bullish sentiment seems to have waned as the cryptocurrency has retraced to ,000.
QCP Capital, a cryptocurrency analysis firm, has provided valuable insights into the implications of this ruling and the overall market outlook.
BTC’s Short-Term Challenges Persist
According to QCP, while the ruling is a positive outcome for the industry, the firm notes that its near-term impact on spot prices is “inconsequential.”
The firm cautions against getting caught up in the short-term “knee-jerk pump” in spot prices and volatility, suggesting it may present an opportunity to fade such fluctuations.
It is important to note that the ruling does not equate to approval of Grayscale’s application nor guarantees approval for the refilling of GBTC. The SEC still holds the authority to reject the refilling on new grounds.
However, QCP Capital believes that the ruling solidifies the likelihood of an eventual approval for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded Fund (ETF) while increasing the probability that the SEC will defer the decision to the March 2023 final deadline.
What’s concerning, is that QCP Capital’s wave count analysis, previously shared in their update two weeks ago, suggests that a final push higher to conclude the B wave correction is probable in the coming weeks.
This, coupled with positive developments in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector led by companies like NVIDIA and recent strength in traditional proxies such as Gold and Rates, creates a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies.
Despite these positive factors, QCP Capital anticipates a potential Q4 2023 start near the market lows. They attribute this to fading optimism surrounding the spot ETF due to SEC delays and a perceived lack of innovation within the cryptocurrency sector compared to other technology sectors.
Additionally, the upcoming Mt. Gox payout is expected to exert short-term bearish pressure on the market.
However, QCP Capital remains optimistic about a significant rally in Q1 of 2024. They anticipate the likely approval of the ETF in March, coinciding with the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April, and a potential US economic slowdown in Q2.
To capitalize on this outlook, the firm suggests considering a topside end March 2024 option structure, which offers limited loss and the potential for a substantial payout if the bullish scenario unfolds.
Bitcoin Faces Downside Pressure
According to Material Indicators, a prominent analysis firm’s algorithmic models, called Trend Precognition, indicate a downside trend on multiple timeframes for Bitcoin (BTC).
The Daily chart, which closes in less than 9 hours, the Weekly chart, which closes in 3 days, and the Monthly chart, which closes in less than 9 hours, all point towards a potential test of support shortly.
Per the firm’s analysis, the Weekly signal would be invalidated if BTC’s price moves and holds below the ,350 level. However, if support holds above the lower low (LL) at ,750, it would provide a solid foundation for a potential rally and a retest of resistance.
Overall, both QCP Capital and Material Indicators concur that the analysis points towards continuing Bitcoin’s current downtrend in the short term.
Presently, Bitcoin is trading at ,100, reflecting a 3% decline over the past 24 hours. The upcoming days will reveal whether these projected scenarios materialize or if the cryptocurrency manages to consolidate at its current level, resulting in sideways price action.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin On Track To $50K, Why BTC Whales May Blaze The Trail
Bitcoin is back on the green side across the board with important gains on lower timeframes. The benchmark crypto managed to push away from the high area around ,000, taking off deep into the ,000 territory.
Related Reading | Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Here’s What SOPR Data Says
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at ,351 with a 6.4% profit in the last 24-hours.
BTC with important gains on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
During today’s trading session, BTC’s price seems to be positively reacting to several bullish news, including the announcement made by accounting giant KPMG. The Canadian-based company added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its balance sheet boosting the case for crypto adoption.
Of all the institutions and high profile investors to go public on owning BTC in recent years, KPMG's announcement today is right at the top in terms of importance and credibility. Hard to overstate this one.
— MacroScope (@MacroScope17) February 7, 2022
On-chain analyst Jan Wüstenfeld showed the potential impact from the BTC purchase announcement. As seen below on the daily chart, BTC’s price rose from ,3700 and almost broke through the major resistance point at ,000.
Source: Jan Wüstenfeld via Twitter
In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has green-lighted investment firm Valkyrie’s Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) based on publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies. The investment product will start trading tomorrow, February 8th, and will allow for more institutional investors to gain indirect exposure to the underlying asset, BTC.
In that sense, on-chain analyst Will Clemente recorded an increase in whale accumulation over last week, when Bitcoin started to recover from a sustained downward trend which started on Q4, 2021. The analyst believes that BTC’s price recent move to the upside could extend due to its strength making institutional investors attempt to capture some of the momenta:
Just as the move down gave no dead cat bounces or clean retests, this up move so far has given shallow dips and no clean retests, leaving sidelined capital sweating and potentially having to chase.
Source: Glassnode via Will Clemente
Bitcoin Strengthens Bullish Fundamentals, K Holds The Key
In the short term, and as NewsBTC reported last week, Bitcoin seemed poised for a short squeeze. Investment firm QCP Capital supported a bullish case for BTC’s price due to a brief pause in the macro-economic factor operating as a headwind for the cryptocurrency.
On the top of the list, the U.S. Federal Reserve, set to increase its interest rates, will go into a period of hibernation at least until mid-March. Still, two days from now, the institution will release January 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI) metrics.
If the numbers are higher than expected the U.S. financial institutions could be incentivized to speed up their shift in monetary policy. In the past months, Bitcoin has reacted with volatility to the monthly CPI print.
In addition, QCP Capital has recorded some “real-buying” for BTC as the rally continues beyond last week’s options expiry. This suggests “sizable demand” operating in the market. The firm added:
Crypto prices rallied even though NASDAQ traded lower towards the end of last week. We don’t think this means that crypto has necessarily decoupled from NASDAQ but this tells us there is tangible and targeted crypto demand right now.
Related Reading | What Exactly Can You Do With NFTs? How To Buy, Where to Store, and Common Uses
BTC futures are also showing signs of bullishness as funding rates for perpetual swaps have been trending into negative territory. As more traders open short positions, the likelihood of an extended short squeeze rise, QCP Capital said.
9/ The market is still very long gamma (short-tenor options) from the DOV strikes (BTC: 41,000-43000, ETH: 3,200). This would naturally cause some resistance up to around 45,000 in BTC and 3,400 in ETH (because market makers would be selling spot against the calls).
— QCP Capital (@QCPCapital) February 7, 2022
September Leaves Behind Trail Of Blood, Bitcoin Long Liquidations
After what looked to be a month of prosperity following the August bull run, Bitcoin has now entered into an era of increasingly bearish signals. The asset had seen a number of rallies that pushed it over two-month highs, successfully breaking above the K resistance range on a number of occasions. Throwing the entire market into a stretched-out period of positive sentiment.
September has now come with its own unique set of problems for the digital asset. Bitcoin price has been suffering since the beginning of the month, ushered in with a flash crash that rocked the market only a week into September. The market continues to suffer from the aftershock of this flash crash, which has left a trail of blood in the market, and led to massive liquidations.
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Bitcoin Price Crash Leads To Sell-Offs
In only a matter of days, the price of bitcoin has fallen from ,000 to ,000, which triggered liquidations in the market. The long liquidations totaled up to the tune of 0 million across exchanges. The liquidations took place over two days when the price of the digital asset had inevitably fallen to ,000 on Tuesday, September 21st. Although significant, the liquidations, which were spread across two days, still sat below the sell-offs seen following the September 7th crash.
Related Reading | Did Bitcoin Really Experience A Flash Crash Down To ,400?
Monday marked the beginning of the liquidations as the market saw 0 million long positions liquidated. And the following Tuesday, a total of 0 million long positions were liquidated as well. At this point, the price of bitcoin had hit levels not seen since mid-August. And as market sentiment shifted into the negative, the price continued to plunge.
BTC longs liquated on Monday and Tuesday add up to 0 million | Source: Arcane Research
Current sell-off volumes have remained beneath the .2 billion sell-off in early September, suggesting that this current sell-off is more organic than previous ones. Also, it shows that the current market is more influenced by spot activity compared to the derivatives market.
September And Its Chokehold On The Market
September has historically come with challenges for the crypto market. So the crash that rocked bitcoin and the entire market at the beginning of the month is on-brand. Crashes with at least a 17% value loss have happened in September for the past four years and it looks like 2021 has fallen in line with this trend.
However, the end of September has always come with better forecasts for the following month. Chart analysis show crashes in the month precede recoveries that put the market on course to regain its lost value. Setting the market up for another bull run.
BTC price trading north of K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The price of BTC has now recovered above its Tuesday’s lows, which saw the digital asset plunge below K. Bitcoin is currently trading above ,000 at the time of writing. While the total market cap has fallen below 0 billion.
Featured image from Bitcoin News, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com
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Ardor and Ignis – Blazing a Trail for User-friendly Multifunctional Blockchain Platforms
With each new mainnet launch, along comes another platform that claims to do everything that its predecessors failed to deliver. This year, Polkadot and Cardano have both been through high-profile launches. However, the reality is that neither one has yet fulfilled its roadmap to achieve what they’ve promised.
Polkadot is still very much in development, still running without decentralized governance and only a partially functioning Relay Chain. Furthermore, launching a parachain on Polkadot is a daunting prospect requiring in-depth knowledge of blockchain development.
Over the summer, Cardano launched staking on its Shelley mainnet, to much fanfare. Nevertheless, the project is years away from full functionality.
Those platforms that have launched in full don’t offer much consolation for the blockchain enthusiast. The majority of transactions on Tezos and EOS have no financial value. Both Tron and Binance Chain perhaps have more activity, but both are under significant control from the firms that back them.
So, for any enterprise or entrepreneur looking to adopt a public blockchain, there are fewer choices than it may first appear. This scenario explains why Ethereum continues to endure. Nevertheless, it’s plagued by scalability woes, and the first phase of Ethereum 2.0 hasn’t even yet been launched. Once it does, the full implementation is another two or three years away.
However, there is some hope. Over the last three years since it launched on mainnet, Ardor has been steadily attracting projects to develop on its multifunctional, multi-chain platform. In that time, Ardor’s operators, Jelurida, have also had the opportunity to build out the features of Ignis, Ardor’s first child chain offering a range of different applications, out of the box.
Ardor and Ignis – Under the Hood
Thanks in part to Ethereum 2.0 and Polkadot, sharding has become one of the hot blockchain buzzwords of 2020. However, sharding simply refers to partitioning a single linear blockchain into multiple chains to allow parallel processing. Ardor was the first platform to implement such a multi-chain architecture and has operated as such since its genesis block in January 2018.
The Ardor parent chain is the backbone of the platform, serving to secure the transactions on the network. Ardor’s child chains handle all operational transactions, running in parallel to ensure high throughput.
Ignis is Ardor’s main child chain. Anyone wanting to implement out-of-the-box blockchain features, like an asset exchange or a marketplace, can do so using Ignis without needing their own child chain. But if a company wants to create customized features or implement more complex applications that interact with one another, they can set up a child chain.
Furthermore, some features of Ignis facilitate customization of other child chains, such as creating individual user account permissions or configuring conditions attached to the use of particular assets. As Ardor’s operator and developer, Jelurida is an experienced blockchain development company that can offer support and consult on the use of any of its services, from the most basic to the most complex.
Established Use Cases of Ignis
Several projects are now making use of Ardor and Ignis, proving that the platform can support multiple use cases. In particular, many innovative projects have found that the ready-made features of Ignis can be applied in various applications using gamification in different contexts.
Cycle4Value
Cycle4Value is a blockchain-based gamification system that aims to use rewards to encourage people to cycle more. The project was trialed in Austria as an initiative for reducing road traffic and boosting public health. However, the project team believes it could be scaled up for global use as required.
Participants can earn tokens simply by getting out on their bikes. They can then redeem their tokens in a dedicated marketplace, perhaps by purchasing discounts on goods or services or by donating them to charities.
Gallery Defender
Gallery Defender is a project designed to explore the use of blockchain in a game-based learning tool. Gallery Defender is an existing game in which a player takes on the role of a museum owner, defending their gallery against a thief. The overall point of the game is to help students learn about different types of art.
The project team integrated features of the Ignis chain into Gallery Defender, using non-fungible tokens for various functions in the game. These include storing information, representing a completion credit in a course, and in-game rewards. The team used a phasing mechanism to ensure that students using the game couldn’t simply trade their course tokens peer-to-peer.
Ardor Rocks
Ardor Rocks demonstrates how easy it is for anyone to build a decentralized application on Ardor, even as a hobby project. Ardor Rocks is a social network that aims to align incentives by rewarding participants in $ROCKS tokens in return for providing content and engagement. $ROCKS tokens can also be used by advertisers to purchase advertising space on the site, and anyone can buy and sell their tokens on the Ardor Asset Exchange.
The entire project was launched as a one-man operation by Swiss telecommunication OS engineer Corrado Andriani. While he isn’t the first to come up with the idea of a decentralized, incentivized social media network, he is the first to illustrate how easily this can be done using the Ardor multi-chain platform.
In technological terms, blockchain is still relatively nascent. Therefore, it seems realistic to expect far more use cases to emerge over the coming years and decades. However, having achieved an early head start, Ardor and Ignis are already proving that a multifunctional blockchain platform can bring demonstrable value for a variety of purposes.
$220 Million Liquidated: Bitcoin Volatility Creates Trail of Destruction Amongst Traders
Bitcoin has been caught within the throes within immense volatility over the past day, rallying to highs of ,400 overnight before losing its momentum and declining down towards ,000.
The overnight rally from lows of ,400 to its recent highs left a trail of destruction in its wake, causing the crypto to see its largest daily buy-side liquidation of the year, with over 0 million being liquidated.
The plunge from this level seen today added to this number, with another 0 million in positions being liquidated.
From a technical perspective, it now appears that the benchmark cryptocurrency could be well-positioned to see massive losses in the near-term, with one analyst noting that he is setting buy targets within the ,000 region.
Bitcoin Sees Massive Volatility as 0 Million in XBTUSD Positions Get Liquidated
Bitcoin saw a notable overnight rally that led it to highs of ,400. This movement was sharp and led many traders to grow incredibly bullish on the benchmark cryptocurrency.
It’s rally into this price region was short-lived, however, as this morning it incurred a sharp influx of selling pressure that led it back into the lower-,000 region.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down 1% at its current price of ,500, marking a notable decline from recent highs of ,400 that were set overnight.
The latest rejection at ,000 further confirms that the cryptocurrency is plagued by underlying weakness and could be positioned to see significantly further near-term downside.
One incredible byproduct of this latest movement was that over 0 million in positions on trading platform BitMEX were liquidated.
This can be clearly seen while looking towards the chart seen below from analytics platform Skew, showing that 3 million was liquidated yesterday evening, with another million being liquidated this morning.
Data via Skew
Yesterday, short positions accounted for virtually all of the total liquidations, whereas this morning’s liquidations were comprised of long positions.
Here’s Where BTC May Go Next
This latest rejection could mark a confirmation of a bearish triple-top formation that leads Bitcoin to see notable downside.
One popular cryptocurrency analyst is now noting that he believes the crypto is well-positioned to decline towards ,000 in the days and weeks ahead.
“BTC update: Almost… We now got a triple top in play. That makes the support areas I outlined even more attractive as a buy,” he explained while pointing to the chart seen below.
Image Courtesy of DonAlt
Because this movement likely was the result of a long squeeze, it is possible that Bitcoin’s downtrend will be short-lived.
If buyers are unable to break back above ,000, however, this could confirm the triple top and spark a far-reaching downtrend.
Featured image from Shutterstock.
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