3iq Digital Asset Management has announced that its solana fund has filed a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering in Canada. The fund aims to become the first solana (SOL) exchange-traded product (ETP) in North America. Its objectives include providing exposure to the cryptocurrency, long-term capital appreciation, and staking yield. The Fund Seeks to […]
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Solana Could Face A 41% Crash, Warns Mechanism Capital Co-Founder
Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, voiced concerns over the potential volatility and impending price correction of Solana (SOL) in a market analysis posted on X. His comments come amid a broader dialogue concerning the delayed second wave of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he now anticipates could be pushed back by one to two quarters.
He states, “I believe the timeline for this is delayed by 1-2 quarters. Some market views. Experts now suggest that solicitation approval/ETFs added to wealth management platforms is slated for Q4 instead of late May as originally suggested.” He believes that this delay in ETF approvals could result in a lack of immediate capital influx into the market, thereby potentially reversing the current upward momentum.
Impacting the broader crypto market, Kang’s prediction for Solana, Kang’s prognosis is less optimistic. He highlights Solana’s price volatility, which has been significantly influenced by meme-driven trading activities.
“Solana has been a great horse this cycle but it’s seen the reflexivity from the meme trading demand works in both directions. If meme trading takes a pause for the next few months, then you’ll likely be able to buy SOL near again,” he remarked, indicating a potential 41% decline in SOL’s price from its current price level.
Reasons For A Potential Solana Price Crash
Crypto analyst TexasHedge further elaborated on Kang’s insights, providing a nuanced view of the market dynamics that influenced Solana’s price movements. He discussed the historical attractiveness of Solana as a high-risk, high-reward investment, often referred to metaphorically as “the world’s best casino.”
This environment attracted significant capital inflows, which were crucial in driving up Solana’s valuation during its peak periods. “Kang’s SOL commentary makes a lot of sense. Solana remains arguably the best casino in the world, but casino outflows are as painful for the SOL token as inflows were beneficial,” the crypto analyst noted.
TexasHedge shared his previous investment approach, which saw Solana as a compelling trade based on several factors: Initially, it involved the re-rating of Solana, which had been considered a laggard in the crypto space due to the FTX collapse but then gained momentum. Another factor was the strong influx of capital into SOL because of the memecoin frenzy. Lastly, Solana’s movement often mirrored broader crypto market trends, benefiting from the overall market beta.
Reflecting on these factors, TexasHedge remarked, “I liked SOL in October 2023 as a three-part trade: (i) re-rating of a presumed dead chain, (ii) inflows into the world’s best casino, and (iii) crypto beta. Now, you’re largely just left with (iii), at much higher levels, and amid a backdrop in which it is hard to make a great case that SOL is the best expression of crypto beta.”
Moreover, the analyst pointed out several structural challenges that Solana faces, which might contribute to a downward price correction. These include an inherent annual inflation of 5.21%, translating to about 82,570 SOL entering the market each year—worth approximately .1 million at current prices—and the regular monthly release of locked SOL purchased from FTX, which increases supply and potentially depresses prices if demand doesn’t match up.
“Even absent a cooling of memecoin mania, the outlook over the next few months is challenging,” TexasHedge concluded, indicating a tough road ahead for Solana amidst reduced speculative memecoin trading and ongoing market pressures.
At press time, SOL traded at 7.
Bitcoin And Solana Brace For Quiet Q3: What Crypto Traders Should Know
As summer unfolds, the cryptocurrency market is showing little upward momentum. Particularly, crypto analyst Ansem has recently projected a steady course for Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) in the coming months.
This forecast is grounded in a detailed analysis shared on Elon Musk’s social platform X, where Ansem highlighted potential trends and key scenarios that could influence these major cryptocurrencies’ performance.
Ansem suggests that Bitcoin and Solana might not make bullish strides before the year’s late third or fourth quarter, but they have maintained stability above the March lows.
This suggests a period of consolidation might be underway. However, the narrative for the broader altcoin market diverges significantly, with different coins showing varied trajectories. Ansem’s analysis points to a critical period of sideways movement that could set the stage for future price actions.
The Technical Analysis: A Deeper Dive Into Market Movements
According to Ansem, Bitcoin, and Solana have not dipped below their March lows, which might indicate a consolidation phase that precedes the next leg up.
However, this stability isn’t mirrored across all digital assets. For instance, Avalanche (AVAX) and similar infrastructure projects show signs of breaking below these levels, suggesting a possible new downtrend or a capitulation phase before reclaiming critical levels.
The XRP/BTC chart analysis reveals an interesting trend where Bitcoin and Solana might either maintain their resilience as market outliers or eventually succumb to broader market downturns.
The scenarios laid out by Ansem include:
BTC and SOL as Outliers: Bitcoin and Solana might continue to hold their current low levels of consolidation, with Bitcoin staying between ,000 and ,000 and Solana between 0 and 0.
This scenario anticipates that while other altcoins might have already hit their lows, they will bottom out when majors do, following some sideways action.
General Market Downturn: If BTC and SOL are not outliers, they might catch up with the downside experienced by the broader market.
This could lead to a significant market capitulation, potentially pushing Bitcoin to between ,000 and ,000 and Solana to between and 0.
Total Market Peak: Ansem considers it highly unlikely that the entire market has peaked, dismissing this scenario as improbable.
He suggests an extended period of sideways movement is a more plausible outcome. At the same time, application development within the crypto space continues, potentially buoyed by ongoing inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin And Solana: Synced Trends And Upcoming Altseason
In recent trading sessions, Bitcoin and Solana have reflected similar price behaviors, both experiencing a modest 0.1% decrease over the last 24 hours. Despite this, their weekly performance diverges significantly; Bitcoin has dropped by 6.4%, while Solana has seen a sharper decline of 14.3%.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is ,816, whereas Solana is trading at 6.81. Turning attention to broader market movements, Crypto analyst Moustache has recently shared his optimism about the potential for an upcoming Altseason, noting positive signals on Bitcoin’s three-week chart.
He emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic accumulation of quality altcoins during this phase, suggesting that “good things” are on the horizon for those who stay the course.
BTC Dominance is about to make a bearish cross on the 3W-Chart and people still doubt if an Altseason will happen lol.
I hope you guys didn’t get shaken out, but good things take time.
I’m not selling, on the contrary, i add quality alts to my bags. pic.twitter.com/sYZrdWAmrf
— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖
(@el_crypto_prof) June 19, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Solana Down 40% But Analyst Says Now’s The Time To Buy SOL
Solana, one of the top altcoins, trailing Ethereum and the BNB Chain, has not been spared in the recent correction. After rallying to as high as 0 in Q1 2024, the coin is now sliding, facing strong headwinds, plunging, and following the performance posted by Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Is This The Best Time To Buy Solana?
Even amid this deep retracement, Raol Pal, a macro analyst, thinks this is the best time for investors and traders to consider Solana. In a post on X, Pal said traders may look at loading the coin, citing the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart.
Looking at the SOLUSDT chart, it is clear that the coin is moving sideways and inside a broader flag after the spike to over 0 in March. However, what’s emerging amid the cool-off is that the zone between 0 and 5 is a support to watch out for.
At press time, SOL is changing hands at around 0, down approximately 40% from the March 2024 highs. If bears of late May 2024 press on, it will be interesting to see how prices will react at this level.
From Pal’s position, the analyst expects prices to bounce back from this level and resume the uptrend from last year. The problem is that there won’t be any guarantee that prices will shoot higher from this support zone.
Technically, a close above 0 and preferably 0, could mark the resumption of the next leg up, quashing bears.
On-Chain Activity Shrinking As Ethereum Set For More Institutional Support
Whether this will pan out in the coming weeks or months is unclear. How SOL performs is primarily tied to market developments and on-chain activity, among other factors.
Although Solana is fast emerging as a preferred choice for meme coin issuers, there has been a marked drop in on-chain activity in recent days. Notably, Ethereum layer-2 solutions like Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism appear to be taking over.
Solana offers higher scalability than Ethereum, meaning transaction fees are low. When on-chain activity drops relative to other cheaper platforms, it could mean the demand for SOL is falling, which is a net negative for prices.
At the same time, the revival in the stock market, which has seen indices like the S&P 500 rally, could draw investors’ attention to cryptocurrencies. Additionally, with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the brink of approving a spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF), more capital will flow to ETH.
Is Solana A Good Buy? Finance CEO Predicts ‘Magnificent’ Autumn Rally
Raoul Pal, the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Real Vision, a financial media platform, has indicated that Solana is on the brink of reversing its bearish trends. The financial expert has predicted a “magnificent autumn rally” for the cryptocurrency in this market cycle.
Solana To Witness Major Autumn Rally
Solana’s recent downward trend could potentially signal a great buying opportunity for investors who remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s future outlook. Being a popular supporter and long-term investor of Solana, Pal has expressed confidence in the cryptocurrency’s ability to witness a major price increase soon.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on June 18, Pal highlighted Solana’s present market dynamics, sharing a detailed price chart of the cryptocurrency, depicting its price movements from July 2023 to July 2024. The analyst described Solana’s price actions as a “banana” that was slowly “ripening,” emphasizing the cryptocurrency’s steady rise to peak value.
He also underscored the cryptocurrency’s significant growth potential and performance amidst market downtrends, highlighting Solana’s ability to witness a “magnificent” rally in the upcoming autumn season. In this context, the autumn season signifies a cryptocurrency season characterized by a surge in market capitalization followed by initial signs of market weakness, as investors take profits and volatility increases.
Typically, crypto autumn precedes the winter season which is the harshest period in the market where bears attack and cryptocurrency prices fall dramatically. Pal has suggested that investors who wish to add more SOL to their existing holdings can do so during this period to take advantage of potential buying opportunities.
He portrayed Solana’s present price as a prime entry point for crypto investors to position themselves before an impending rally. However, a few crypto community members expressed skepticism about Pal’s predictions, including crypto analyst, Jerry Jordan who queried about the timeline for this projected “banana season.”
Responding to Jordan’s comment, Pal acknowledged that while a banana season for Solana was inevitable, ongoing market volatility makes the timeline for its projected surge uncertain. He emphasized that Solana will need to break out of its current sideways consolidation before it can witness a significant price increase.
Sharing Pal’s bullish sentiments for Solana, popular crypto analyst, Ali Martinez has disclosed a key support zone at 1 for the cryptocurrency. He revealed that Solana’s TD Sequential was showing a major buy signal on its daily chart, predicting a possible rebound if the cryptocurrency holds the aforementioned support level.
SOL Price Fundamentals Remain Strong Amidst Downturn
The price of Solana has been on a major downward trend lately, recording a significant 19.84% decline since the beginning of the month. Despite the market’s volatility, the price of Solana has continued to maintain a value above 5, underscoring its strong price fundamentals amidst wavering market conditions.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Solana is trading at 9.78, reflecting a 0.31% surge in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is steadily pushing toward the 0 threshold despite witnessing an 8.44% decline over the past seven days.
Bitcoin, Solana Suffer As Institutional Investors Pull $600 Million Out Of Crypto Funds
Crypto funds witnessed outflows last week after recording five weeks of consecutive inflows. According to CoinShares data, digital asset funds saw 0 million in net outflows for the week ending June 14. The outflows were concentrated in Bitcoin and Solana funds, which saw 1 million and .2 million exits, respectively. These outflows come amidst a corresponding drop in the price of Bitcoin throughout the week and a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held during the week.
Crypto Funds Bleed Largest Since March, With Bitcoin In The Lead
Crypto funds witnessed outflows of 0 million last week after an intense billion inflow in the prior week, bringing a recent .35 billion inflow run over five weeks to an end. The outflow recorded, according to CoinShares data, was the largest since March 22, 2024, and it occurred under comparable circumstances. Notably, the outflow ending March 22 came after a period of significant inflows totaling billion in the week prior. Investors had to pull out their exposure to more stable assets due to the outcome of the FOMC meeting.
The FOMC held its most recent meeting on June 11 and 12, 2024, holding interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%, leading many crypto investors to pull out. Crypto is seen as a risky, speculative asset, and so it is only natural for investors to move into safer havens considering the high interest rate.
Unsurprisingly, most of the outflows came from Bitcoin, with crypto funds of the leading crypto asset losing about 1 million. Furthermore, the majority of this Bitcoin outflow was registered in Spot Bitcoin ETFs trading in the US. According to data, Spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows every day last week, save for a 0.8 million inflow on June 12. As a result, these Bitcoin ETFs registered a total of 0 million in outflows last week. The negative Bitcoin investor sentiment was also reflected in short Bitcoin products receiving .8 million worth of inflows.
Solana, which also had a rough week in terms of price action, recorded .2 million of outflows in its investment products. In addition, multi-asset investment products experienced outflows amounting to .1 million. Trading volume averaged around billion for the week, well below the billion weekly average for the year. These outflows and little trading volume saw the total assets under management (AuM) fall from over 0 billion to billion over the week.
On the other hand, Ethereum received .1 million in outflows as investor interests continued to grow in anticipation of the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. BNB, Litecoin, XRP, Chainlink, and Cardano also witnessed inflows of .3 million, .8 million, .1 million, .7 million, and .8 million, respectively.
Solana Sees Sharp Decline To $146, Will SOL Overcome Latest Hurdles?
SOL, the native token of Solana, a leading blockchain platform renowned for its high-speed transactions and innovative technology, is currently facing significant price hurdles. As the cryptocurrency market experiences volatility, Solana’s price has encountered resistance levels that pose challenges to its bullish trajectory. Investors and analysts are closely watching these developments, trying to gauge what lies ahead for SOL.
This article explores the current price hurdles facing Solana, delves into future outlooks, and offers predictions on how these obstacles could impact its market performance. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the uncertain terrain of Solana’s price movements.
As of the time of writing, SOL has a market capitalization of over billion, a trading volume of over .3 billion, and a price drop of 5.40%, trading at around 6 over the past 24 hours. Despite the price decline, its market capitalization and trading volume increased by 0.64% and 40.90%, respectively.
Current Market Analysis For Solana
Currently, on the 4-hour chart, the price of SOL after attempting to move upward has begun to drop again with two bearish candlesticks dropped. Also, Solana is trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicating that the price might remain bearish.
Although the composite trend oscillator indicator on the 4-hour chart indicates that SOL’s price may move upward as both the signal line and the SMA of the indicator are heading toward the zero line, it should be noted that this is only a short-term measure because the price will eventually drop even further.
Meanwhile, on the 1-day chart, it can be observed that Solana is bearish as it is trading below the 100-day SMA and also attempting to drop a bearish candlestick with strong momentum.
Also, the signal line and SMA of the 1-day composite trend oscillator have broken below the zero line and are moving toward the oversold zone, which suggests that the price of SOL may move very bearish.
Expert Opinions On SOL’s Price Outlook
As of right now, Solana’s price is moving downward toward the 0 support level. If SOL breaks below this level, it will continue to move downward to test the 8 support level and may move on to challenge the support level if it breaks below the 8 level.
Nonetheless, prices may begin to increase in the direction of the 0 resistance level if it is unable to cross any of the previously mentioned levels. If it breaks above this 0 level, it will continue to rise and challenge the resistance level at 8. Furthermore, should SOL break above this level, it can also see a higher price move to challenge the 5 resistance level on the chart.
This Altcoin Gem Will Overtake Solana, Predicts Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has predicted that the blockchain Aptos (APT) is poised to surpass Solana (SOL) in prominence and utility in the race for the second largest Layer 1 (L1) blockchain behind Ethereum within the next two to three years. Hayes conveyed his thoughts during a detailed interview with macro analyst Raoul Pal.
Aptos Could Overtake Solana
Hayes indicated that the potential for Aptos to outperform Solana and ascend as the second-ranking L1 protocol after Ethereum is significant, but did not delve into the specific catalysts behind his assertion during the conversation. He promised a more detailed exposition of his views in September.
The emergence of Solana in March 2020 marked a significant milestone in the blockchain landscape. Solana was heralded as a solution to several limitations of Ethereum, particularly concerning scalability, speed, and cost-efficiency. These attributes were crucial as the Ethereum network grappled with severe congestion issues during the DeFi boom, prompting the search for viable alternatives.
Solana’s ascent in the crypto hierarchy was notably accelerated with the launch of the memecoins BONK in December 2022 and dogwifhat (WIF) in November 2023, both pivotal moments that marked the first major departure of memecoin activities from Ethereum’s ecosystem. Both memecoins not only boosted Solana’s visibility but also attracted an array of memecoins and innovative DeFi platforms, drawn by lower transaction costs.
However, similar to Ethereum, Solana faced its own challenges at the beginning of the year with network congestion as its popularity surged, demonstrating the persistent scalability issues within current blockchain infrastructures.
Aptos, on the other hand, has maintained a record of zero downtime since its inception, positioning it as a robust and reliable alternative within the digital currency ecosystem. Its foundation rests on the novel smart contract programming language “Move,” developed by engineers formerly associated with Meta Platforms Inc.’s Diem project.
Although Diem was ultimately shelved, the expertise and technological advancements have been redirected into Aptos, emphasizing its suitability for commercial use and potential for widespread adoption. However, Aptos has not yet been widely adapted. The blockchain currently has neither a popular DeFi ecosystem nor any major memecoins.
APT Price Analysis
This is reflected in Aptos’s market performance. Currently, Aptos (APT) has retreated 63% from its January 2023 high of .39, trading at .50 after experiencing a significant downtrend from its March peak of .48. The decline has taken APT below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at .39.
The cryptocurrency’s trajectory has also seen it falter below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now at .25, which has emerged as a major resistance level. APT has faced multiple rejections at this threshold, underscoring its importance for any potential reversal to bullish momentum. Moreover, maintaining a position above the year’s lowest price of .39 is critical to stave off further losses.
Solana Price Faces Uphill Task: Tough Road Ahead For SOL Bulls
Solana tested the 8 zone before it started a recovery wave. SOL price must clear the 0 and 5 resistance levels to start a steady increase.
- SOL price is eyeing an upside break above the 0 resistance against the US Dollar.
- The price is now trading above 5 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 6 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
- The pair could clear the 2.50 resistance to start a short-term uptrend.
Solana Price Eyes Steady Increase
Solana price extended losses below the 0 level like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL even declined below the 2 support before the bulls appeared near the 8 level. A low was formed at 8.01 and the price recently started a decent recovery wave.
The price was able to clear the 2 and 5 resistance levels. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.89 swing high to the 8.01 low. Solana price is now trading above 5 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 6 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair.
Immediate resistance is near the 0 level. The next major resistance is near the 2.50 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.89 swing high to the 8.01 low.
A successful close above the 2.50 resistance could set the pace for another major increase. The next key resistance is near 6.50. Any more gains might send the price toward the 0 level.
Another Decline in SOL?
If SOL fails to rally above the 2.50 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the 5 level and the trend line.
The first major support is near the 2 level, below which the price could test 8. If there is a close below the 2 support, the price could decline toward the 5 support in the near term.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is near the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – 5, and 2.
Major Resistance Levels – 2.50, 6.50, and 0.
Analyst Calls Buy Signal As Solana Hits Key Support At $141
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Solana (SOL) has been slightly positive in the last day, notching a market gain of 1.37%. This price increase, while little, is highly encouraging for investors considering Solana’s bearish form in the past week where it lost 8.11% of its market value. Interestingly, crypto analyst Ali Martinez postulates that SOL could sustain its current positive performance following the discovery of a buy signal.
Solana Hits Critical 1 Support, TD Sequential Hints At Price Surge
Via his X handle on Saturday, Ali Martinez noted that Solana had recently fallen to a key support level at the 1 price mark. According to the analyst, this decline resulted in the generation of a buy signal by the TD Sequential indicator.
#Solana has hit a key support level at 1, with the TD Sequential showing a buy signal on the $SOL daily chart! If this support holds, #SOL could rebound for one to four daily candlesticks. pic.twitter.com/AjQX8CGf1d
— Ali (@ali_charts) June 15, 2024
For context, the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential turning points in the price of an asset. The primary goal of the TD Sequential is to anticipate market reversals and trends by counting a series of price bars.
Following Solana’s bearish form in the past week, Martinez states that the token’s price drop to 1 has signaled a potential trend reversal according to signals from TD Sequential. Martinez postulated that if the buy signal proves true and the 1 price mark holds as a solid support level, SOL could maintain a price rally for the next 1-4 days.
Interestingly, since hitting the specified support level, Solana climbed by over 3% to trade above the 5 price mark.
If SOL maintains the same level of price growth over the next four days, the altcoin is expected to attain a price mark of at least 8. However, a critical resistance lies at the 9 price zone. Sufficient selling pressure at this price may force SOL to resume its bearish trend.
SOL Price Overview
At press time, Solana trades at 5.16 after a 10.25% decline over the last month. However, the altcoin still remains one of the best-performing major cryptocurrencies in 2024 with a combined market gain of 43.5% all year.
Generally, Solana is tipped as one asset to look out for in the expected crypto bull run following its performance in the last bull cycle where it rose from around .5 to a peak price of 9.98. In addition, Solana boasts of a robust meme coin ecosystem valued at .46 billion which could also contribute to spurring the token’s price to new heights in the coming months.