The latest quarterly report from Fidelity Digital Assets (FDA) Research reveals key insights into the bitcoin and ethereum markets as of Q1 2024. With a detailed analysis of market conditions and future outlooks, FDA’s research report provides several predictions for short and long-term trends. Fidelity Digital Assets Spotlights Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Shifts in New […]
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook
The highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event is close, bringing with it heightened expectations regarding the long-term impact on the Bitcoin price.
There are concerns, however, that this quadrennial event may already be priced in, as Bitcoin recently reached an unprecedented all-time high of ,700 on March 14.
This surge broke the pattern of previous Halvings, where Bitcoin had never surpassed its previous ATH before the event. However, historical data reveals significant price increases in the year following previous Halvings.
Experts Predict Delayed Bitcoin Halving Price Impact
Analysts argue that the compounding impact of reduced issuance takes several months to materialize, suggesting that the Halving itself may not prompt a significant rally before or immediately after the event.
Deutsche Bank analysts share this sentiment, highlighting that substantial price increases have typically occurred in the run-up to previous Halvings rather than immediately after them.
Another factor to consider is the increased production costs for Bitcoin miners resulting from the Halving. As the mining reward decreases, participating in the mining process becomes less profitable.
This has historically led to a decline in the hashrate, the total computational power used for Bitcoin mining. JPMorgan analysts predict that production costs could rise to an average of ,000 after the Halving.
One JPMorgan analyst wrote, “This estimate is also the level we envisage Bitcoin prices drifting towards once Bitcoin-Halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.”
While these factors may influence short-term price movement, historical data reveals that the price of Bitcoin has experienced significant increases in the year following previous Halvings.
The respective price gains for the three previous halvings were 8,760%, 2,570%, and 594%. However, it’s important to note that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on the new supply of Bitcoin.
Mining Industry Shake-Up
In the mining sector, Halving could lead to significant revenue losses, estimated to be around billion annually.
According to Fortune, publicly traded miners have taken measures to increase their resilience, diversify their offerings, and optimize their operations. However, mining stocks have faced challenges, with some experiencing significant declines.
While larger miners may undergo a period of adjustment, smaller miners and pools may be pushed offline. This could result in a wider market share for the surviving miners.
Experts at private asset management firm Bernstein expect the mining industry to consolidate, with “smaller and less efficient players” potentially selling assets to raise capital and shore up their balance sheets.
The increased market dominance of the surviving miners is expected to be profitable over the long term, especially with the continued structural demand for Bitcoin from ETFs.
Timing The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into the potential timing of Bitcoin’s bull market peak based on historical Halving cycles and the current acceleration seen in the market.
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has traditionally reached its peak in the bull market approximately 518-546 days after the Halving event.
However, the current cycle has shown signs of unprecedented acceleration, with Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs roughly 260 days ahead of historical norms. Nonetheless, the recent “pre-Halving retrace” has slowed down the cycle by around 30 days and counting.
Taking into account this accelerated perspective, if Bitcoin’s bull market peak is measured from the moment it breaks its old all-time high, it may occur 266-315 days later. As Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in March, this suggests a potential bull market peak in December 2024 or February 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.
Both perspectives carry significance throughout the cycle, especially if the acceleration trend persists. However, prolonged retracements or consolidation periods can slow down the cycle, potentially pushing the anticipated bull market peak further into the future.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at ,300, up from the ,000 mark reached in the early hours of Friday.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Indicators Signal Bearish Outlook
As bitcoin’s price action shows signs of continued bearishness, the digital currency’s trading volume and market capitalization suggest a volatile but keenly watched market. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s (BTC) current trading price of ,891 to ,075 per unit underscores a market grappling with uncertainty, reflected in an intraday trading range between ,773 and ,414 over the last […]
Bitcoin News
ETF Analyst Offers Sober Outlook on Newly Approved Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs; Challenges $25B Inflow Estimate
Following Hong Kong’s authorization of the region’s first spot bitcoin and ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared his insights on social media about the new additions. Although there were anticipations of notable capital inflows into the Hong Kong ETFs, Balchunas mentioned that while it’s a positive step forward, he emphasized […]
Bitcoin News
Grayscale Drops Bombshell Report: Crypto Bull Run Progresses To ‘Middle’ Phase, Future Outlook Detailed
The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge after a prolonged bear market and the intensified crypto winter caused by the collapse of crypto exchanges and firms during 2022 and part of 2023.
Notably, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced substantial price surges, accompanied by renewed interest from institutional investors entering the market through recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Adding to the industry’s positive outlook, asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer, Grayscale, believes that the current state of the market indicates that the industry is in the “middle” stages of a crypto bull run.
Grayscale recently released a comprehensive report detailing their key findings and insights into what lies ahead. A closer analysis of the report by market expert Miles Deutscher sheds light on the factors contributing to this assessment.
On-Chain Metrics And Institutional Demand
Grayscale’s report starts by highlighting several key signals indicating that the market is currently in the middle of a bull run. These include Bitcoin’s price surpassing its all-time high before the Halving event, the total crypto market cap reaching its previous peak, and the growing attention from traditional finance (TradFi) towards meme coins.
To understand how long this rally might sustain, Grayscale emphasizes two specific price drivers: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong on-chain fundamentals.
Grayscale notes that nearly billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just three months, indicating significant “pent-up” retail demand. Moreover, ETF inflows have consistently exceeded BTC issuance, creating upward price pressure due to the demand-supply imbalance.
Grayscale’s research focuses on three critical on-chain metrics: stablecoin inflows, decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL), and BTC outflows from exchanges.
According to Deutscher, the increase in stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) by approximately 6% between February and March suggests enhanced liquidity, making more capital readily available for trading.
Furthermore, for the analyst, the doubling of the total value locked into DeFi since 2023 represents growing user engagement, increased liquidity, and improved user experience within the DeFi ecosystem.
The outflows from exchanges, which currently account for about 12% of BTC’s circulating supply (the lowest in five years), indicate rising investor confidence in BTC’s value and a preference for holding rather than selling.
Based on these catalysts, Grayscale asserts that the market is in the “mid-phase” of the bull run, likening it to the “5th inning” in baseball.
Promising Outlook For Crypto Industry
Several key metrics support Grayscale’s analysis, including the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which indicates that investors who bought BTC at lower prices continue to hold despite rising prices.
According to Deutscher, the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, currently at 3, implies that there is still room for growth in this cycle. Additionally, the ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which integrates multiple ratios, currently stands at 79/100, suggesting that the market is approaching historical cycle peaks with some upward momentum remaining.
Furthermore, retail interest has yet to fully return this cycle, as evidenced by lower cryptocurrency YouTube subscription rates and reduced Google Trends interest for “crypto” compared to the previous cycle.
Ultimately, Grayscale retains a “cautiously optimistic” stance regarding the future of this bull cycle, given the promising signals and analysis outlined in their report.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Cardano Latest Technological Updates Unveiled, Analyst Maintains Bullish Outlook on ADA
Cardano (ADA), the proof-of-stake blockchain platform, has made notable progress in technological advancements, according to Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the engineering firm behind the Cardano blockchain.
IOHK’s recent announcement highlights crucial improvements across various aspects of the platform, signaling further growth and development for Cardano.
Cardano Smart Contract Optimization
One significant area of improvement lies within the ledger team, which has reportedly enhanced test frameworks and data quality in the Newconstraints phase3. They achieved this by introducing constraints and new types such as Size, SizeSpec, and Sized.
The engineering company has also noted advancements in wallets and services. The Lace team is preparing to release Lace v.1.9, which promises new features and improvements for Cardano users.
In the realm of smart contracts, the Plutus team has included a guide in the documentation, elucidating how to use AsData functionality to optimize scripts. They have also implemented a UPLC optimization pass to minimize the number of forces and delays in the script.
Mithril Team Releases Major Update
Addressing scalability, the Hydra team has restored test compatibility with all networks and reviewed and merged streaming plugins. They have rectified tutorial instructions for downloading the latest Cardano-node and resolved the observed contesters bug.
The Mithril team has released Mithril distribution 2412.0, encompassing critical updates and enhancements. These include support for the Prometheus metrics endpoint in signer, deprecation of the snapshot command in the client CLI, full Pallas-based implementation of the chain observer, and compatibility with Cardano node v.8.9.0.
Moreover, the team has implemented community-requested features to verify the output folder structure created by the client. They continue to investigate and address any sources of “flakiness” in the CI end-to-end test.
Notable Surge In Token Trading Volume
According to DeFiLlama data, Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) currently stands at 2 million, signifying a slight dip of million following the achievement of the 0 million milestone. Cardano boasts a significant figure of .3 million in terms of stablecoin market capitalization.
Analyzing Token Terminal data reveals several key market indicators for Cardano. The fully diluted market cap, representing the maximum potential market value of all tokens in circulation, is estimated at .20 billion, reflecting a notable 4.9% increase over the past 30 days.
Similarly, the circulating market cap, which considers only the tokens in active circulation, stands at .88 billion, with a 5.2% growth rate over the same period.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish For ADA
Regarding price action, crypto analyst “Trend Rider” recently shared insights on ADA’s latest price action in a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
According to the analyst, ADA’s price experienced a decline after reaching a yearly high of .811 on March 14. It is currently trading within the range of a parabolic red line and a rider band.
The parabolic red line represents a significant resistance level, while the rider band indicates a potential support region for ADA’s price. This range-bound movement suggests a period of consolidation for ADA, as the cryptocurrency takes a breather before its next significant move.
Furthermore, the analyst notes that the bullish strength of the trend has weakened over the past two weeks. This could indicate a temporary slowdown in ADA’s upward momentum, potentially leading to consolidation or sideways trading.
However, despite this weakening bullish strength, the analyst stated that the overall trend direction remains bullish, suggesting that ADA’s long-term prospects remain positive.
ADA is trading at .652, exhibiting a sideways price action in the last 24 hours. However, over the past seven days, the token has successfully recovered from previous losses and registered a gain of 5.4%.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bullish Outlook: Analyst Predicts Near-Term Surge To $61,000
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be losing momentum after its bullish breakout to the ,000 price mark, but some patterns indicate further optimistic activity may be ahead.
Bitcoin Price To Reach ,000
On Thursday, Titan of Crypto, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst shared an interesting prediction for Bitcoin in the near future on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) sparking hope within the community.
Titan of Crypto pointed out in the post that Bitcoin is about to form a trend that he called a “Bull Flag formation.” As a result of this latest action, he has placed a near-term price target for BTC at the ,000 threshold.
However, the expert noted that the crypto asset is presently experiencing a retest of the Tenkan indicator. According to Titan of Crypto, the price of Bitcoin encounters a pullback every time it reaches the ,700 level.
Furthermore, the analyst asserted that there is a good chance that bull flag formation will materialize as long as the Tenkan retest remains steady. However, he anticipates a potential drop to ,300 at the Kijun level, if a breakout toward the downside occurs.
The post read:
Bitcoin Bull flag formation: target at ,000. BTC is retesting Tenkan at the moment. Each time it hits the ,700 level it’s bought back. Look at the candle wicks. As long as Tenkan holds the potential bull flag formation is likely to play out. If it were to break to the downside, next support would be Kijun at currently approximately ,300.
Titan of Crypto has identified another exciting piece of information regarding Bitcoin’s current stance in the market. In another X post, he claims that BTC has entered the “second phase of the bull run.”
The crypto expert stated that BTC’s “Monthly Williams %R” is approaching the “top dotted line.” He mentioned that when the development took place in the last cycle, Bitcoin was about to enter its second bull market phase.
Bitcoin, as of the time of writing, was trading at ,986, indicating a 1.55% decline in the past 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows its market cap and trading volume are both down by 1.56% and 20.48%, respectively.
BTC Network Sees Significant Investment Inflow From Investors
With the recent rally, BTC appears to have garnered investors’ interest as the asset has experienced a rise in investment inflow. Willy Woo, a crypto analyst, reported that every day, the network receives around an average of 7 million in new investor demand.
Meanwhile, the overall number of new Bitcoins created daily by mining is just approximately million. In the post, Woo also highlights the importance of the upcoming BTC supply halving, which is just 60 days away.
As it is widely known, Bitcoin halving is when the introduction of new BTCs into circulation is cut by half, which happens every four years after miners solve 210,000 blocks.
Bitcoin Bearish Outlook: Analyst Predicts Price Nosedive To $38,130
The price of Bitcoin has been on a bearish trend for the past few days now, which has led to several crypto analysts predicting an even more bearish action for the crypto asset in the near future.
Bitcoin Price To Crash To ,130
Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst and enthusiast, has shared a worrying prediction for the short-term price action of Bitcoin. The analyst took to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) a few hours ago to share his projections with the crypto community.
Martinez’s forecast came amidst the recent crash craze encompassing the entire crypto market. The largest crypto asset has been suffering with significant pullback for a while now, with pricing dropping below the ,000 price mark.
According to the analyst, the latest decline in the price of Bitcoin can go below ,130. Martinez stated that short-term holders of BTC would experience losses if prices go below the aforementioned price level.
He also noted that the price decline could cause a “panic selling” mode among short traders. As a result, these short sellers will look for methods to cut their losses.
The post read:
If Bitcoin’s price falls below ,130, short-term BTC holders could find themselves in the red. This potential Bitcoin dip might trigger a new wave of panic selling as these holders will seek to minimize losses.
Nonetheless, Martinez has highlighted that the bearish shift is just temporary, predicting that the BTC bull cycle will peak in late 2025. In the post, he asserted that Bitcoin’s current state is similar to previous bull runs that lasted from “2015-2018 and 2018-2022.” After that, he mentioned that market estimates suggest that BTC could reach a new peak by October 2025.
With his analysis, Martinez has forecasted a “600 days bullish momentum” for Bitcoin, presenting future profits for investors in the long term.
Historical Trends Prove Further Correction In Price
Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning Investor, Charlie Bilelo has noted that historical trends suggest more price correction. According to the chief, “History does not repeat itself, however it often rhymes.”
Bilelo underscored, that whenever there is a significant event in the history of BTC, there are always notable price corrections. He emphasized BTC witnessed an 84% pullback after the December 2017 bull run.
He highlighted a similar scenario that took place in October 2021 bull run. Then the rally began after the approval of BTC futures ETF and saw a 78% retracement afterwards.
This pattern appears to be partially manifesting as evidenced by the spike in BTC’s price earlier this year due to BTC Spot ETF approval. Bilelo has pointed out a “20% pullback” so far since the products were allowed by the SEC.
As of the time of writing, the asset’s price is sitting at ,088, indicating an over 5% decline in the past week. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that its market cap and trading volume are also down by 0.35% and 31% respectively.
Bitcoin “Outlook Remains Bullish,” As Long As This Stays True: Analyst
An analyst has explained that the outlook for Bitcoin should remain bullish as long as the cryptocurrency’s price remains above this level.
Bitcoin Has Strong On-Chain Support Above ,800
In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about the various BTC support and resistance levels from an on-chain perspective. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level depends on the amount of Bitcoin that the investors bought at said level.
The chart below shows what the distribution of the different BTC price ranges currently looks like based on the concentration of holder cost basis that they carry.
As displayed in the above graph, the ,800 to ,100 range hosts the acquisition price of most Bitcoin out of all the price ranges listed. To be more specific, about 2.4 million addresses acquired 1 million BTC within this range.
The cost basis is naturally of immense significance for any investor, as the spot price retesting can flip their profit-loss situation. As such, holders become more likely to show some move when a retest like this happens.
A holder in profit before the retest might tend to buy more when the retest happens, as they might believe this same level that proved profitable earlier would do so again.
On the other hand, loss holders might want to sell at their break-even level since they may fear the cryptocurrency going down again, putting them underwater again.
These buying and selling moves aren’t enough to move the market when just a few investors are making them, but if a large number of investors have their cost basis inside a narrow range, the reaction could become significant.
Since those above ,800 to ,100 range is dense with investors, it should be an essential on-chain range. The spot price is floating above the range so that these prices could act as a support barrier for the asset. Based on this, Ali explains, “as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above ,800, the outlook remains bullish.”
The chart shows that the Bitcoin ranges above the price aren’t carrying the cost basis of that many investors. This could imply that there isn’t much resistance ahead for the coin.
The analyst notes that this lack of major resistance also strengthens the potential for the cryptocurrency to stay at the current levels or push towards the higher ones.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has been gradually making its way back up after the recent crash, with its price climbing towards the ,800 mark. The below chart shows how the asset has performed during the last few days.
Coinbase 2024 Outlook Marks End of Crypto Winter, Ordinals Leading NFT Shift, Heralds Era of Prosperity
As the crypto market navigates through a transformative era, Coinbase’s 2024 Crypto Market Outlook provides insights and predictions. The report, encompassing data up to November 30, 2023, delves into pivotal crypto market shifts and institutional practices.
Coinbase’s 80-Page 2024 Crypto Market Outlook Suggests Brighter Days for Digital Assets
Coinbase’s comprehensive 80-page report indicates that the total crypto market capitalization doubled in 2023, signaling an end to the crypto winter and the onset of a transition phase. Despite past challenges, the market’s remarkable recovery and sustained development underline the resilience and staying power of cryptocurrencies.
“What’s clear, however, is that in spite of the hurdles directed towards the asset class, the developments we witnessed over the past year have defied expectations,” the Coinbase 2024 report notes. “They are evidence that crypto is here to stay. The challenge now is to seize the moment and build something better.”
Coinbase says that 2023 witnessed bitcoin (BTC) reinforcing its status as a safe haven amidst geopolitical upheavals and financial crises. The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs by leading U.S. financial institutions marked a significant acknowledgment of bitcoin’s disruptive potential and a possible precursor to enhanced regulatory clarity.
“But progress rarely moves in a straight line,” the Coinbase researchers detail. “To create a more resilient market, developers will need to continue building towards real world use cases that help us cross the chasm from early adopters to mainstream users.”
The report highlights a key theme for 2024, essentially a shift in crypto trading towards practical use cases, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users. Coinbase believes developments in Web2 analogs and blockchain infrastructure, alongside innovations like decentralized identity and physical infrastructure networks, are setting the stage for this transition.
In 2023, bitcoin’s dominance in the digital asset market increased, spurred by institutional interest and applications for spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Coinbase thinks this trend will continue, with institutional flows remaining anchored on BTC through at least the first half of 2024. The latter half of 2023 saw BTC outperform most traditional assets.
This momentum, the report explains, is expected to carry into 2024, with BTC potentially benefiting from broader economic trends and pressures on traditional financial systems. Additionally, Coinbase touches upon the Ordinals and Atomicals trend alongside Rootstock, Stacks, RGB, and implementations of BitVM. Coinbase also believes that “a large portion of NFT activity has shifted to Bitcoin Ordinals.”
The 2024 Outlook report notes that the crypto space has seen significant infrastructure development, including scaling solutions and security services. Coinbase researchers say it has laid the groundwork for the emergence of decentralized applications, hinting at a transition in trading regimes towards Web3 applications.
Coinbase further mentions the growth of layer two (L2) scaling solutions has been notable, with developments like OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit. Despite this, Ethereum’s mainnet has maintained stable transaction counts, with L2s primarily affecting alternative L1 platforms.
Lastly, the report concludes that the U.S. economy’s trajectory in 2024 seems cautiously optimistic, with a decreased likelihood of recession. The report says that this economic setting and the potential of Federal Reserve cuts could lead to a weaker USD, presenting opportunities for cryptocurrencies.
What do you think about the 2024 outlook report published by Coinbase? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.