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$100K to $150K — Traders Target Six-Figure Heights With Long-Dated Bitcoin Call Options
Recent data reveals a significant uptick in open interest for bitcoin futures and options across various trading platforms in recent weeks. On Monday, insights from QCP Capital indicated a notable interest in long-term September and December bitcoin calls, aiming for the lofty six-figure price brackets. Confidence Soars With Bets on Bitcoin Exceeding 0K Just last […]
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Market Optimism Peaks as Bitcoin Call Options Aim for $100K Milestone
Following bitcoin’s significant market activity this week, conversations around the bull market have hit a high pitch, with numerous predictions of substantial increases in the leading crypto asset’s price cycle. Evidence indicates that call options, with strike prices ranging from ,000 to 0,000, are now in the mix, as speculators exhibit strong optimism. Bitcoin Bull […]
Bitcoin News
FOMO Fuels Bitcoin’s 35% Jump, Options Flow Hints At Bigger Upswing
The price of Bitcoin seems on the brink of blasting past its all-time high (ATH) at the high area of its current levels. The cryptocurrency has been on a bull run due to the launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), which officially onboarded institutions to the nascent sector.
As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at around ,900 with a 3% profit in the last 24 hours. In the previous week, the cryptocurrency recorded a critical 22% profit. It stood as one of the three top gainers in the top 10 by market cap, only surpassed by Solana (25%) and Dogecoin (57%) in the same period.
Bitcoin-Based Derivatives Hint At Further Gains
Data from the derivatives platform Deribit indicates a spike in long positions by Options operators. Since early February, these traders have accumulated important call (buy) contracts with a strike price above ,000.
At first, as the report indicates, the increase in bullish positions was thought to be part of a Bitcoin “Halving” strategy. However, the BTC ETF Flows seem to be the key component behind the rally.
As cryptocurrency entered the ,000 area, several operators rushed to accumulate call contracts, leading to a Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) rally to its current levels. The chart below shows that the FOMO buying began when BTC breached the ,000 level.
The spike in trading activity during yesterday’s session led to a significant jump in Implied Volatility (IV). Overleveraged positions further propelled the metric, Deribit stated:
The 62k to 64k surge was so quick, and with high leverage across the whole system, that when sales hit the market a cascade sent BTC down to 59k in 15mins, and some Alts (also massively leveraged) dropped 50% on some exchanges before promptly bouncing as BTC jumped to 61.5k.
As the market continues to experience sudden moves due to the high IV, there is little change in the market structure in the derivatives sector. In other words, Deribit still records a lot of bullish positions for the coming months, which suggests optimistic conviction by these players.
BTC Price On The Short Timeframe
Despite the bull run, the Bitcoin price could dip as euphoria takes over the market. According to economist Alex Krüeger, the spike in trading volume across the derivatives sector indicates the formation of a “local top.”
The analyst believes that retail has returned to the market driven by FOMO, which often hints at short-term predicaments for long traders. Krüger predicted further gains into the ,000 area via his official X account and then a drop into the ,000 area.
The analyst stated:
ATH are inches away. That’s price discovery territory. Thus very easy for things to get even crazier. This is just not where one opens new longs. Too easy to get a quick flush out of nowhere. Ideally we see funding cool down and price consolidate below ATH then break out.
Cover image from Dall-E, Chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin’s Bull Run Ignites: Traders Target $80,000 In High-Stakes Options Frenzy
As Bitcoin breached the ,000 mark, a notable shift in investor sentiment has been observed, with an increased interest in call options for Bitcoin at ‘ambitious’ strike prices. This trend, primarily focusing on strikes above ,000, signals a ‘robust’ confidence among traders in Bitcoin’s potential for further gains.
QCP Capital, a renowned crypto asset trading firm, explained this phenomenon in its latest report, emphasizing the concentrated buying activity in these high-strike call options with various expiry dates.
A Surge In High-Strike Call Options
Call options are financial contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe.
In the context of Bitcoin, this surge in call option buying at higher strike prices suggests a bullish outlook from investors, betting on Bitcoin’s price to climb significantly higher than its current levels.
This optimism is not just a speculative bubble but is backed by substantial financial commitments, with QCP Capital highlighting close to “ million spent on premiums for ,000 and ,000” strike options alone.
According to the detailed analysis by QCP Capital, there’s been a significant uptick in the purchase of Bitcoin call options, with strike prices towering above ,000. This activity is spread from April to December expiries, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment among investors.
Deribit, the leading crypto derivatives exchange, corroborates this trend, reporting a substantial concentration of open call options at ,000 and higher.
The December expiry call option cluster targets a 0,000 strike price, showcasing some traders’ ultra-bullish expectations for Bitcoin’s year-end valuation.
The end of March sees the largest volume of Bitcoin options calls at a ,000 strike, revealing the immediacy of some traders’ bullish outlooks. With over 1,273 contracts set for the March 29 expiry, the notional value of these bets exceeds million, highlighting the significant capital being placed on these optimistic market predictions.
Bitcoin Market Sentiment And Predictions
This enthusiastic options trading activity occurs amid bullish Bitcoin price forecasts. Matt Dines, Chief Investment Officer at Build Asset Management, identifies a ‘Cup and Handle’ pattern on the Bitcoin price chart, suggesting a potential rally to ,000.
Cup and handle #Bitcoin #sendit pic.twitter.com/DmYAVwmLfj
— Matt Dines (@BuildCIO) February 13, 2024
Similarly, QCP Capital analysts see Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, projecting a significant surge before the end of March 2024.
This collective optimism is also mirrored in the Ethereum market, where there’s a notable accumulation of call options around the ,000 strike price for mid-year expiries, indicating a broader positive sentiment across major cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to make significant moves, crossing the ,000 threshold with a nearly 20% increase in the past week, indicating that the market’s bullish sentiment is palpable.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Betting Big On Ethereum: Options Traders Target $4,000 Mark Amid Market Optimism
Ethereum (ETH) is showing a noteworthy pattern in the options market. According to data from Deribit, a leading platform for crypto futures and options trading, there’s a significant concentration of call options for ETH around the ,000 strike price for both the June and September expiries.
Options Traders Anticipate ,000 Ethereum
This accumulation of ETH call options centered on the ,000 mark indicates a concentrated expectation among traders that the price of Ethereum could rise to, or above, ,000 by these dates.
For context, options are financial derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of call options) or sell (put options) the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date.
Notably, according to a chart from the crypto futures and options trading platform, the ,000 ETH strike price emerged as the dominant position in the ETH options trading landscape, surpassing other strike prices for the June and September expiry dates.
It is worth noting that such a pattern indicates market sentiment and can influence trading strategies. In this instance, the pattern implies that most options traders are likely bullish on Ethereum, anticipating a notable increase in its value.
Furthermore, this trend might lead fundamental traders to reconsider their positions on Ethereum, potentially shifting their outlook to expect an upward trajectory in the asset’s performance.
Factors Influencing ,000 ETH Options Strike Price
This clustering of Ethereum call options at the ,000 strike price appears to be influenced by several factors, including the potential approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
With the final decision deadline for these spot ETF applications set for May 23, traders seem to be positioning their Ethereum options contracts in anticipation of a favorable outcome, as observed by Bitfinex’s Head of Derivatives, Jag Kooner.
However, Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer, Luuk Strijers, cautions against drawing definitive “conclusions” about the link between the derivatives market and the Ethereum spot ETF approval expectations.
Strijers notes that while the “June skew” is higher, indicating more “expensive calls,” it’s challenging to pinpoint this precisely to the spot ETF news or expected correlation with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Meanwhile, Altcoin Daily crypto analysts recently outlined three key factors that could propel Ethereum’s price to ,000. Among these factors, the anticipation and potential approval of Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) were highlighted as a major catalyst.
While Ethereum futures have already gained global acceptance, analysts emphasize that the green light for these spot ETFs could significantly trigger Ethereum’s long-term price appreciation.
Regardless of this contrasting ETH view, ETH currently trades at ,495, showing a 7.7% increase in the past week and a 1.9% rise in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Blackrock Seeks SEC Approval to Offer Options on Spot Bitcoin ETF — Ishares Bitcoin Trust Now Holds 28,622 BTC
Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to offer options on its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The SEC has opened a comment period for a proposed rule change, filed by Nasdaq, to list and trade options on Blackrock’s spot bitcoin ETF. Since launch, Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust has amassed 28,622 bitcoins.
SEC Opens Comment Period for Options Trading on Ishares Bitcoin Trust
Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, is seeking to offer options on its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
Nasdaq, which lists and trades IBIT, filed a proposed rule change (Form 19b-4) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday to list and trade options on IBIT. In its SEC filing, Nasdaq explained:
The Exchange believes that offering options on the Trust [IBIT] will benefit investors by providing them with an additional, relatively lower cost investing tool to gain exposure to spot bitcoin as well as a hedging vehicle to meet their investment needs in connection with bitcoin products and positions.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart commented: “The SEC has already acknowledged the 19b-4’s requesting the ability to trade options on spot bitcoin ETFs. This is faster than SEC typically moves.” The analyst opined: “Options could be approved before [the] end of February if SEC wants to move fast?… At [the] absolute earliest, options [are] still ~27+ days away.”
Following Nasdaq’s filing, the SEC opened a comment period for the proposed rule change to list and trade options on Ishares Bitcoin Trust. The comment period lasts 21 days after the publication in the federal register.
Since its launch on Jan. 11, Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust has accumulated 28,622 bitcoins with a market value of .199 billion as of Jan. 18.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen strong trading volumes since they launched on Jan. 11. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas detailed that nine spot bitcoin ETFs “saw another jump in volume” on Friday, up 12% compared to Thursday and 53% from Wednesday. He called it “a rare phenomenon.” The analyst further noted that Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and Blackrock’s IBIT “are in a legit duel to be The One.” Nonetheless, he emphasized: “All of them posting huge numbers for newbies, competition is making them all hustle twice as hard.”
The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10. Besides Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF, which converted from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Blackrock’s IBIT leads the pack in terms of total trading volume, closely followed by Fidelity’s FBTC. Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF has seen a significant outflow of bitcoin. Since Jan. 12, the trust has witnessed a cumulative outflow of 50,106.59 BTC, valued at more than billion. According to Balchunas, Blackrock’s spot bitcoin ETF is in the top 15 of all ETFs by assets and the top 2% by daily trading volume.
What do you think about Blackrock seeking to offer options on its spot bitcoin ETF? Let us know in the comments section below.
NYSE’s Strategic Move — Bitcoin ETF Options Poised to Boost Market Dynamics
In a groundbreaking move, NYSE Arca Inc. has submitted a proposal to amend its rules to enable options trading on commodity-based trust shares, specifically targeting bitcoin-based ETFs. This initiative, detailed in the 19b-4 filing with the SEC, marks a significant advancement in the financial products available for crypto investors. The NYSE’s proposal aligns with the surging interest in bitcoin ETFs, which saw a trading volume of .6 billion within just three days of their introduction.
NYSE Arca Eyes Options Trading for Bitcoin ETFs in Finance Sector Breakthrough
The filing by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), under Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rule 19b-4, seeks to amend a rule to permit options trading on commodity-based trust shares such as the new BTC-based financial instruments. This move comes as the crypto market witnesses a rapid evolution, with spot bitcoin ETFs rapidly gaining traction among investors.
Notably, this development follows the soaring trading volumes experienced by spot bitcoin ETFs, which dramatically increased to .6 billion in a mere three days post-launch, highlighting the market’s strong appetite for these funds.
To understand the significance of this development, it’s essential to grasp what options trading entails. Options are financial derivatives that give buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame.
Essentially, options allow investors to speculate on the price movement of these bitcoin ETFs, without requiring them to own the actual asset. This form of trading provides flexibility and leverage, enabling traders to hedge against price fluctuations or bet on the future direction of an asset’s price.
The proposal by NYSE Arca to amend rule 5.3-O reflects a strategic move to accommodate the burgeoning interest in traditionalized applications toward crypto investments. Historically, rule 5.3-O has deemed ETFs appropriate for options trading. These ETFs, traded on national securities exchanges and defined as “NMS stock” under regulation NMS, typically represent interests in various financial instruments managed by investment companies.
The inclusion of the spot bitcoin ETFs in this category essentially signifies a major extension of traditional financial products into the realm of digital assets, offering investors new avenues for portfolio diversification and risk management. Concurrently, Grayscale Investments embarked on developing a covered call ETF anchored in its GBTC. Proshares took a significant step by recently applying for an array of five leveraged and inverse bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday.
The submissions from NYSE, Grayscale, and Proshares represent a steady progression in the integration of crypto assets within the broader financial markets. The decision of the U.S. securities authority on these proposals, however, remains an uncertain and separate matter.
What do you think about NYSE Arca’s latest proposal to offer options on the new spot bitcoin ETFs? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Surges Then Faces Sudden Dip As Options Expiry Looms
According to Crypto trader Mags, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has recently demonstrated a notable +55% surge, breaking out from a smaller broadening wedge pattern.
Mags shared insights on this significant price movement, observing Bitcoin’s breakout and suggesting a mid-term target at the “upper trendline resistance of a larger broadening wedge.”
This surge notably results from several catalysts in play, such as the surging interest of institutional investors and the US approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Upcoming Options Expiry Impact’s Bitcoin Price
However, Bitcoin has seen a slight downturn following its recent surge over the past 24 hours. Despite being significantly up over the past month, the asset has declined by nearly 10% in the past day, with its current trading volume slightly decreasing to billion from over billion yesterday.
This sudden dip can largely be attributed to the imminent expiration of options. According to the options trading platform Greeks.live, a substantial 36,000 BTC options are set to expire soon, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.9.
Notably, the ‘Put Call Ratio’ serves as a sentiment indicator, assessing the market mood by comparing the volume of put options to call options. It is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options by the number of traded call options.
Put options grant the holder the right (but not the obligation) to sell a specified amount of an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific timeframe. Conversely, call options allow the holder the right (but not the obligation) to buy a specified amount of an underlying asset at a set price within a specific timeframe.
The Put Call Ratio is interpreted in two ways: a high ratio (greater than 1) and a low ratio (less than 1). A low ratio suggests more call options are being bought than put options, indicating bullish market sentiment as more traders expect the market to rise.
Conversely, a high ratio indicates that more put options are being bought than call options, suggesting bearish market sentiment as more traders anticipate a market decline.
Jan12 Options Data
36,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.9, a Maxpain point of ,000 and a notional value of .68 billion.
262,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, a Maxpain point of ,400 and a notional value of 0… pic.twitter.com/LSKNGKVjrH— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) January 12, 2024
With Bitcoin’s Put Call Ratio currently at 0.9, as reported by Greeks.live, it implies that traders are leaning towards a bearish move for Bitcoin. This anticipated decline may contribute to Bitcoin’s current dip, despite the recent commencement of spot Bitcoin ETF trading in the US.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Potential
Despite the current dip, market analysts suggest this downturn might be short-lived. As highlighted by crypto trader Mags, the breakout from a smaller broadening wedge pattern signifies a bullish sentiment in the short term.
The +55% surge marks a recovery from previous lows and prepares the stage for a potential ascent toward the upper trendline of a larger broadening wedge. Such a pattern hints that Bitcoin could be primed for further substantial price movements shortly.
Additionally, the ‘Max Pain’ point, as identified by Greeks.live, is currently pegged at ,000 for Bitcoin, holding a total notional value of .68 billion. This point, where option holders face the most financial loss, is a critical indicator of the market’s potential direction.
According to Greeks.live’s analysis, the nearing expiry of 36,000 BTC options implies that the market is poised for significant movements. In anticipation of these dynamics, Greeks.live reported a shift in trading strategies has been observed, with a growing emphasis on ‘LONG GAMMA’ approaches.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Record Crypto Options Volume Expires Pre-Bitcoin ETF Deadline: Analyzing BTC And ETH Reactions
The recovery of the overall crypto market this year has spurred a surge in the digital-asset derivatives market as institutional investors seek exposure to the crypto space.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, the deadline for US regulators to approve or reject Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has prompted traditional investors to turn to crypto options and futures, leading to unprecedented trading volumes.
Crypto Options Trading Hits Record High
Before the options expiry on Friday morning, crypto options trading volume reached a new all-time high, with options worth a notional value of billion, as highlighted by Bloomberg. Of this total, Bitcoin contracts accounted for .7 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) options represented .5 billion.
Despite the expiration of many options, the impact on the major cryptocurrencies has been limited. With its strong support floor at ,000, Bitcoin has maintained its position for a potential uptrend once bullish momentum returns and buying pressure increases.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has traded within the same range as the previous day, at ,200, experiencing only a 0.4% decline. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has yet to fully recover from its 3.4% drop over the past seven days.
In contrast, ETH was hit by the expiration of options contracts. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency on the market, fell more than 2%. EHT dropped to ,316 after hitting an annual high of ,445 on Thursday.
However, while heightened trading activity may accompany the expiration of options, it is unlikely to impact spot market prices, according to Luuk Strijers significantly, Deribit’s chief commercial officer.
Strijers notes that clients are rolling their positions to 2024 expiries, and additional activity is anticipated after the expiry. The focus of attention and trading activity will primarily be on the impending ETF decision, Bloomberg notes.
Surge From Traditional Asset Managers
The cryptocurrency market has undergone a strong rally this year, with Bitcoin surging nearly 160% following a turbulent 2022 marked by industry scandals and price declines.
The recovery has been fueled partly by the optimism surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would attract a broader range of investors to the asset class.
Ryan Kim, head of derivatives at digital-asset prime brokerage FalconX, highlights the growing participation from crossover macro accounts, referring to large traditional asset managers allocating a small percentage of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies and crypto-focused hedge funds.
In addition, according to Bloomberg, perpetual futures, a favored tool for leveraging crypto trades, are trading at a significant premium compared to spot prices, indicating rising demand for such products.
Overall, the surge in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, driven by options expiry and the pending decision on Bitcoin ETFs, reflects the growing interest of institutional investors in the crypto space.
The record-breaking trading volumes and increased participation from traditional asset managers highlight the evolving landscape of digital assets.
As the market awaits the regulatory verdict on Bitcoin ETFs, it remains to be seen how these developments will shape the future trajectory of the crypto market and its integration with traditional financial systems.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com