Asset management firm Bitwise has cautioned that data suggests the upcoming Bitcoin halving is a “sell the news” event. However, the firm explained that the market likely “prices in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimates the long-term impact,” emphasizing that the data “also suggests that, long-term, the halving may be conducive to price […]
Bitcoin News
Goldman Sachs On Bitcoin Halving: ‘It doesn’t Matter If It’s A Buy The Rumor, Sell The News Event’
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global banking and investment management firm, have offered valuable insights into the anticipated effects of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, on the price of the cryptocurrency. They emphasize that while the Bitcoin halving is a noteworthy event, other major factors will likely exert greater influence on Bitcoin’s future value.
Bitcoin Halving To Play Lesser Role In BTC’s Outlook
In a note to clients, Goldman Sach’s analysts have cautioned against reading too much into the past Bitcoin halving cycles and their impact on the cryptocurrency. Based on historical trends, the Bitcoin halving cycles tend to have a favorable effect on the value of Bitcoin, often triggering a bull run.
The bank noted that whether the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, becomes a “buy the rumor, sell the news event,” it would hold less significance for the cryptocurrency’s medium-term outlook.
They argue that the future performance of the pioneer cryptocurrency would be more heavily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the current market. Additionally, the analysts highlighted that the growing interest and demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) combined with the self-reflexive nature of the crypto market would be the primary contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price action and future outlook.
Sharing a similar perspective, analysts at CryptoQuant disclosed earlier in April that the 2024 Bitcoin halving was no longer a primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s bullish surge. They highlighted that factors such as increasing demand from large-scale investors and diminishing supply were now the key drivers of Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Analysts Warn Of Macroeconomic Influence On New Halving Cycle
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted that macroeconomic factors such as inflation could have a significant influence on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.
“Caution should be taken against extrapolating the past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions,” Goldman Sachs analysts noted.
Unlike previous halving cycles, the present economic conditions display high inflationary pressures and interest rates, which could cause the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle to diverge from historical patterns. In other words, the analysts have suggested that for Bitcoin’s historical halving bull runs to occur, macro conditions need to be supportive of investor risk-taking.
Currently, the United States faces challenges with high inflation, while interest rates stand above 5%. These conditions may exert pressure on Bitcoin’s market dynamics. However, despite the prevailing circumstances, many see the digital currency as a formidable inflation hedge and a beacon of hope against escalating inflationary pressures.
A Look at How Bitcoin’s Halving Might Trigger ‘Sell the News’ or ‘Sell the Rumor’ Reactions
With fewer than 300 blocks remaining until Bitcoin’s fourth halving, speculation has been rife, with many expecting a ‘sell the news’ scenario following an 11% drop in bitcoin prices. On the other hand, this downturn might just be the precursor to a shakeout and a subsequent significant uptick. Large holders, often known as ‘whales’, are […]
Bitcoin News
Performance of AI-Related Crypto Tokens Driven by News and ‘Memetic Speculation’ — Coinbase
Since the beginning of the last quarter of 2023, artificial intelligence (AI)-related crypto tokens have not only outperformed the top two crypto assets but have also outpaced key AI stocks such as Nvidia and Microsoft. According to a report by Coinbase, much of this market-beating performance of AI-related tokens can be attributed to AI headline […]
Bitcoin News
Fetch.AI (FET) Price Gains Another 15% Following This Big News
Fetch.AI (FET) has demonstrated remarkable performance in the crypto market today, securing its position among the top-three performers. The asset witnessed an impressive 17% gain within the last 24 hours, marking a significant milestone by crossing the threshold for the first time ever. This surge, propelling Fetch.AI to the 64th place among the top cryptocurrencies by market cap, is a testament to the growing investor confidence and market optimism surrounding its technological advancements and future potential.
Why Is Fetch.AI Price Up Today?
This surge in FET’s price can be attributed to a pivotal announcement by the Fetch.AI Foundation, which has evidently ignited investor interest. On March 5, 2024, the foundation unveiled a substantial infrastructure investment with the introduction of “Fetch Compute,” following a 0 million investment aimed at enhancing the development capabilities within the AI economy.
Introducing: Fetch Compute
Following a 0M investment in our infrastructure, we have secured the future for our growing ecosystem with a decentralized computing platform, offering advanced AI-focused @nvidia #GPUs
But wait, there's more for $FET stakers!
pic.twitter.com/i9FYkJnkLZ
— Fetch.ai (@Fetch_ai) March 5, 2024
Fetch Compute’s initiative to deploy state-of-the-art Nvidia GPUs, including the H200, H100, and A100 models, aims to significantly accelerate the pace of innovation within the Fetch.AI ecosystem. This strategic investment, funded through the Fetch Ecosystem Fund, is designed to empower developers and users with the computational power necessary for exploring and developing sophisticated models and solutions, addressing the pressing GPU shortage and setting a new standard for the global developer community.
A novel incentive mechanism was also announced, where starting March 7, 2024, users staking Fetch.AI’s native coin, FET, will be rewarded with Fetch Compute Credits. These credits can be used to access the computing power on the Fetch Compute network, directly benefiting FET token holders and fostering a robust development ecosystem.
Humayun Sheikh, CEO of Fetch.ai, emphasized the transformative nature of Fetch Compute, stating, “Fetch Compute is not just an infrastructure investment; it’s an investment in the future of AI and the ecosystem of innovative developers who are pushing the boundaries of what’s possible with our platform.”
Sheikh further elaborated on the significance of this initiative, “By marrying substantial compute resources with our unique compute credit system, we’re ensuring that our community has the support and tools necessary to bring their visionary AI projects to life.”
This strategic expansion not only enhances the utility of the FET token but also reinforces Fetch.AI’s infrastructure capabilities. The platform’s DeltaV, leveraging Language Models (LLMs) and AI Agents, aims to revolutionize the way users connect with services, thereby redefining the search experience. With the rollout of Fetch Compute, Fetch.AI solidifies its vision of a more intelligent, efficient, and interconnected AI world.
FET Price Enters Price Discovery
As the FET price has ascended beyond the mark, it has successfully concluded the bull flag pattern, we discussed in earlier price analysis, achieving a 290% increase. Now, the price of FET is entering a phase of price discovery. The Fibonacci extension levels may provide insights into potential future directions for the price. Potential price targets are at .04 (2.618 Fib), .18 (3.618 Fib) and .88 (4.236 Fib).
Ex-Ripple Director Heralds ‘Big News’ For XRP, Can Price Respond?
Sean McBride, the former Director of Global Talent Acquisition at Ripple, has hinted at significant upcoming news for Ripple and XRP. McBride’s announcement, made via a post on X (formerly known as Twitter), has sparked a mix of excitement and skepticism among followers and investors alike.
His post stated: “Big news coming from #Ripple and #XRP in the next couple days,” setting the stage for speculation on what the news could entail and its potential impact on XRP’s market performance. However, the reaction to McBride’s announcement has been varied within the XRP community.
Big news coming from #Ripple and #XRP in the next couple days
— Sean McBride (@seanmcbride16) February 6, 2024
Wietse Wind, the founder of XRPL Labs—a company known for developing XRP Ledger-based projects such as XAMAN (formerly XUMM), a digital wallet, and Codius, a smart contract platform—responded with a hint of skepticism, implying concerns about insider trading:
Must be quite the news if it is worth entering insider trading territory.
Another community member, identified as Faisal, expressed a more cynical view, suggesting a pattern of temporary engagement with Ripple’s technology: “Another company using Ripple’s products as a ‘pilot program’ and then never actually using it after?” This sentiment reflects a broader skepticism that has occasionally surrounded Ripple’s partnerships and the actual adoption of its technology.
In response to the negative feedback, McBride’s retort was blunt: “Yeah, all you non Ripple shareholders can STFU because, yes, big news IS coming, already has come, and XRP is going to explode so piss off if you don’t have anything positive to say.” This statement indicates a strong belief in the significance of the upcoming news and its potential to positively impact the XRP price.
XRP Price Shows No Reaction (Yet)
As of press time, the XRP price has not shown any significant reaction to McBride’s announcement. This lack of immediate market movement may suggest that investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
In a technical analysis of XRP against the US dollar (1-day chart), the price shows a continuation within a descending channel pattern, indicating a bearish market sentiment. As of press time, the XRP price hovered around the .50 mark.
The chart analysis reveals that the price of XRP is currently struggling below several critical Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) – the 20-day EMA at .52319, the 50-day EMA at .55345, and the 100-day EMA at .56877. This EMA positioning suggests a strong resistance level for any upward price movement. Furthermore, the 200-day EMA at .56220, although below the 100-day EMA, still acts as a potential resistance zone.
Volume indicators show a relatively stable volume with a slight increase in selling pressure, as denoted by the red volume bars. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.08, which is close to the oversold territory, but not yet indicative of a strong reversal signal.
Notably, the price is trading near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at .49894, a critical support level in the short term. This Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the major swing high at .74902 to the swing low at .43085. The price has already breached the 0.5 (.58993) and 0.618 (.55239) Fibonacci levels, which were previously acting as support levels, and is now testing the 0.786 level for potential support.
The descending channel pattern is defined by two parallel lines, with the price making lower highs and lower lows, which is typically seen as a bearish signal. For traders looking for a bullish reversal, a break above the upper boundary of the channel and the nearest EMA would be essential. Conversely, a drop below the 0.786 Fibonacci level could see the price test the .43085 level, which is the recent swing low.
Bitcoin News Catalyst: Could ETF Hype Cause BTC Price To Double?
Bitcoin price is struggling to crack resistance around ,000 per coin, but it might not be long until it does thanks to the backdrop of bullish spot BTC ETF news. The news could also be supported by a change in mass crowd psychology, according to Elliott Wave Principle and the current projected count in BTCUSD. All of this could cause the top cryptocurrency by market cap to double in a flash.
The Countdown To Bitcoin Price Doubling
During every major bull run, there is a phase where the rally is supported by the regular occurrence of bullish Bitcoin news. If it all seems to arrive at once, this is due to the way mass crowd psychology works, according to Elliott Wave Principle.
When an asset, in this case BTCUSD, reaches what’s referred to as an impulse wave, humans begin to behave in an impulsive way, selling at the first sign of a correction, and buying every minor pump that ultimately gets retraced. Because so many market participants are entering during this phase, things get extra volatile.
If this sounds familiar, this is precisely what’s going on with Bitcoin now, and it’s only going to pick up momentum as ETF-related investments are revealed. Compare the chart below referencing BTCUSD now versus late 2020. During the green box, bullish news was breaking all day long.
Show Me The Charts, And I’ll Tell You The News
An onslaught of big companies began buying BTC, such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square. From the bottom of what is labeled wave (iv) in BTCUSD to the top of wave (v) in 2020 into early 2021, the first ever cryptocurrency went on a 136% run. This caused price to more than double from around ,000 to ,000.
Today, Bitcoin is in a similar wave count, with news catalysts ready to help propel the crypto market higher. If the Elliott Wave Principle count is accurate, BTCUSD could see a similarly move where it doubles in a matter of a month. Another 136% increase from here would take BTC to around ,000 per coin and complete wave (v) and wave 3.
Wave 3’s are commonly referred to as an impulse wave. An impulse wave can be sub-divided into five sub-waves. When the powerful wave 3 ascent is over, only a short-lived wave 4 sharp correction should follow, at which point wave 5 will begin and complete the cycle.
Sell The News: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Participate In $2 Billion Selloff
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders have deposited billion in BTC to exchanges, the fourth largest amount in the last two years.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Have Spiked Up
As analyst James V. Straten explained in a new post on X, the BTC short-term holders have potentially participated in a very sizeable selloff recently. The “short-term holders” (STHs) are the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days.
The STHs comprise one of the two main divisions of the BTC market based on holding time; the other segment is called the “long-term holder” (LTH) cohort and includes the holders who mature past the 155-day cutoff.
Statistically, the probability that a holder would sell or move their coins on the blockchain drops the longer they keep them dormant. As such, the STHs are more likely to participate in selling at any point than the LTHs.
This behavior of the STHs is usually especially apparent whenever the cryptocurrency observes a sharp rally or crash, as these fickle-minded investors can’t help but fall prey to the FOMO or FUD of the situation.
One way to track whether the STHs are selling or not is through their exchange inflows. Investors may deposit to these central entities when they want to sell, so the volume going to these platforms can naturally provide some measure of the degree of selling pressure the holders are currently exerting.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH transfer volume going towards exchanges (in USD) over the past couple of years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin volume going from the wallets held by the STHs toward the exchanges has registered a spike recently. “Yesterday, over B worth of Bitcoin got sent to exchanges from STHs,” notes Straten.
From the chart, it’s apparent that during the last couple of years, there have only been three instances where the market saw these weak hands transfer more significant amounts to these platforms.
According to the analyst, .3 billion of the total billion inflow volume from the STHs involved coins carrying some profits. While the rest, 0 million, moved at a loss.
If these inflows were indeed for selling, it would appear that both types of sellers were in the market during the spike: those capitulating at a loss and those harvesting their profits. Straten remarks that the profitability ratio of this inflow volume is a bit suspicious, as the asset mostly moved flat or negative during this period.
This potential selloff from the STHs has come as the Bitcoin spot ETF is not far from being decided by the US SEC. The commission’s X account was also compromised earlier, and someone posted a fake approval announcement using it, to which the market reacted strongly.
Given the timing of the inflows, it would appear that the BTC STHs expect the event to be a sell-the-news type of deal, so once the decision is made, more inflows could follow.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around ,200, up more than 4% in the past week.
Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Labels Bitcoin ETF a ‘Classic Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Event’
According to the veteran trader Peter Brandt, the current bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) hype which has seen the “average guy on the street” clamoring to get may be a signal to experienced traders that it is time to sell them what they own. Brandt also characterized the expected approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as a “classic buy the rumor, sell the news event.”
Brandt Questions Maximalists’ Commitment to the Values of Bitcoin
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) to be a “classic buy the rumor, sell the news event.” Brandt explained that this conclusion is based in part on how the so-called bitcoin maximalists are eagerly awaiting the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and his years of experience as a pro trader.
In traditional stock trading, the phrase “buy the rumor, sell the news” refers to a trading strategy that involves buying a security based on speculation about an upcoming event and selling it when the event is announced. Some observers believe the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) much-anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs qualifies as such an event.
In a post on X, Brandt discusses two observations he has made. He points out the irony of BTC maximalists being unfazed by what would amount to the government’s influence or interference with crypto markets.
“BTC maximalists have viewed one of the predominant values of BTC is that it was outside the control of government — that it was not dominated by the same financial playground that has ruined so many things. So, how is it that so many BTCoiners view the SEC and ETFs as the savior of their financial future,” Brandt quipped.
Time for Experienced Traders to Get out
Regarding the ETF hype that has propelled BTC to its highest USD value in nearly two years, Brandt likens this current scenario to a guide commonly used by “old-time” career traders like himself. According to this guide, when the average person is itching to get in, that is usually a signal to old-timers that it is time to get out.
However, the veteran trader still acknowledges that his observations about bitcoin ETFs could be wrong. Brandt, who has clashed with BTC maximalists in the past, also asks those “smarter” than him to share their thoughts on the subject.
Responding to Brandt’s post on X, social media user Abel Chris said he disagreed with the veteran trader’s assertions. According to Chris, if the SEC approves 10 or more spot Bitcoin ETFs, the direction of the crypto asset’s price will be up. He added: “We may never see bitcoin at the current prices again. The next phase will be countries adopting bitcoin to back up their currency.”
Another user, Cristian Palusci implied that Brandt’s assertions about ETFs only apply to the “average European or American kid.” For bitcoiners from other parts of the world, the ETF approvals are a non-event.
“They are only interested in the fact that thanks to #bitcoin they have access to a parallel financial system, which protects their savings from the devaluation of local fiat currencies,” Palusci said.
Do you agree with Peter Brandt’s comments about BTC maximalists? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
Bitcoin.com News Expands Global Reach With Spanish and Russian Versions of Site
In a nod to the ever-growing global impact of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin.com News has launched Spanish and Russian versions of its site, aiming to provide non-English speakers with the latest in crypto news and insights.
Spanish and Russian Speakers Gain Direct Access to Crypto News as Bitcoin.com News Expands Language Offerings
In a move informed by the decentralized and global ethos of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.com News has unveiled Spanish and Russian versions of its popular news platform. This strategic expansion, underlining the increasingly international appeal of digital assets, is designed to increase access to timely, high quality crypto-related news for non-English speaking audiences worldwide.
The launch of the Spanish (news.bitcoin.com/es) and Russian (news.bitcoin.com/ru) sites comes at an important moment in the crypto industry. The sector’s growth has been meteoric, particularly in regions where English is not the primary language. Bitcoin.com News is committed to representing the inherently global nature of cryptocurrencies.
“By bringing crypto news to Spanish and Russian speakers we’re doing our part to give as many people the best possible up-to-date crypto news as possible,” said head writer for Bitcoin.com News, Jamie Redman. Redman noted:
Crypto empowers individuals, which is more important than ever in a world where much of modern technology centralizes power into the hands of a few tech companies, institutions, and government agencies. It’s important for everyone, irrespective of their language, to understand and participate in this digital revolution.
The expansion into these languages is particularly significant given the burgeoning crypto markets in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Both regions have seen an increase in crypto adoption due to various economic factors, including currency devaluation, lackluster access to financial tools, and a growing young, tech-savvy population.
Moreover, Bitcoin.com News is enhancing its community engagement by introducing Spanish and Russian channels on popular social platforms like Telegram and X. These channels aim to create a more inclusive and interactive environment for crypto enthusiasts to discuss and share insights in their native languages.
Spanish and Russian are just the beginning of Bitcoin.com News’ plans to broaden its global footprint. “As the crypto landscape evolves, so will our efforts to make the best crypto news product, including serving it to more people all over the world, in their own language,” Redman added.
The move by Bitcoin.com News is a testament to the borderless nature of cryptocurrency and its appeal across different cultures and languages. Bitcoin.com News is committed to democratizing access to crypto information, fostering a truly global community in the digital age.
What languages should Bitcoin.com News consider next for site-wide translation? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.