JPMorgan has cautioned investors that the price of bitcoin could fall to ,000 after the halving event in April. The global investment bank’s analysts explained that K is the level they “envisage bitcoin prices drifting towards once bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April.” The bank also recently stated that the bitcoin halving and the next major […]
Bitcoin News
JPMorgan Analysts Predict Bitcoin Crash To $42,000 Post-Halving – What You Need To Know
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, faces a potential downturn in its price following the anticipated halving event scheduled for April, according to analysts at JPMorgan led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
This event occurs approximately every four years and is expected to slash miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. As a result, JPMorgan analysts have warned that the Bitcoin price could drop toward ,000 post-halving.
Reason Behind The Potential Crash To ,000
The analysts attribute this potential decline to the reduced profitability for miners and the subsequent increase in BTC production costs. The analysts disclosed that the Bitcoin production cost has historically served as a “lower bound” for its prices, with the estimated range doubling post-halving to around ,000.
Nonetheless, a potential 20% reduction in the BTC network’s hashrate looms is primarily attributed to the departure of less efficient mining rigs from the operational landscape.
Consequently, this scenario may drive the estimated production cost range to ,000, calculated under an average electricity cost of .05 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
According to the analyst, Bitcoin miners with “below-average electricity costs” and “more efficient equipment” are expected to fare better following the halving event. In contrast, those with “higher production costs” may struggle to remain profitable.
Consequently, analysts anticipate an increased concentration within the Bitcoin mining industry, with publicly listed miners likely to hold a higher share.
Moreover, there is the prospect of “horizontal integration” via “mergers and acquisitions” among miners spanning different regions, aiming to leverage “synergies and minimize” collective operational expenses.
Bitcoin Market Sentiments And Potential Surge
Meanwhile, as JPMorgan analysts suggest a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price post-halving, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. Horsley predicts that the cryptocurrency will surge to 0,000 sooner than anticipated.
Bitcoin is going to eat into gold’s TAM faster than people expect.
0k Bitcoin could happen much sooner than most who’ve followed the space for years would imagine.
Why? For 15 years, Bitcoin proved it’s merits but was only accessible to some.
Bitcoin ETFs were Bitcoin’s…
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) February 28, 2024
Meanwhile, many metrics within the BTC market signal a potential surge for Bitcoin. On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has reached levels reminiscent of the parabolic bull run experienced in 2020, suggesting a forthcoming surge may be imminent.
MVRV hit 2.5, indicating a +150% average profit for all #Bitcoin wallets.
In Nov 2020, MVRV was 2.5 at K, preceding the all-time high and parabolic bull run.https://t.co/cx8nYhNeeI pic.twitter.com/PgRLietkkz
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2
Amid these varying forecasts and market sentiments, BTC trades at ,391, marking a slight retracement from its recent peak above ,000 – the highest level traded in the past two years.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Halving and Ethereum Upgrade ‘Are Largely Priced In’
JPMorgan Chase has discussed three main catalysts driving crypto prices over the coming months. The global investment bank’s analysts believe that the Bitcoin halving event and the next major upgrade of the Ethereum network are largely priced in. JPMorgan on Catalysts Affecting Crypto Prices Global investment bank JPMorgan Chase has provided its insights into three […]
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Bitcoin ETFs Boosts Coinbase (COIN) Shares As JPMorgan Upgrades Rating
The recent Bitcoin rally, propelling its price to the ,000 level, has positively impacted the stock of US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). After experiencing a notable dip to 5 at the start of February, Coinbase’s stock rose to 2 on Thursday, following a significant upgrade by a JPMorgan analyst.
Improved Prospects For Coinbase Amid Crypto Rally
According to a Bloomberg report, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington abandoned his bearish view on Coinbase weeks after downgrading the stock.
As Bitcoin traded higher, Coinbase shares gained as much as 7.8% following the upgrade. Worthington believes the exchange will likely benefit from the recent rally in digital asset prices, prompting him to shift his rating back to neutral.
This change in stance comes after Worthington’s January downgrade, where he predicted a potential deflation of enthusiasm for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, contrary to his previous forecast, Bitcoin ETFs have been successful in terms of trading measures, and the price of Bitcoin has surged beyond ,000, reaching its highest level since 2021. In a note to clients on Thursday, Worthington explained:
Given the acceleration in recent days of flows into Bitcoin ETFs and the significant price appreciation of Bitcoin and now Ethereum, we are returning to a Neutral rating on Coinbase as we see the higher cryptocurrency prices not only sustaining but improving activity levels and Coinbase’s earnings power as we look to 1Q24.
Coinbase’s stock experienced an 8% dip at the beginning of the year, following an impressive 400% surge in 2023. Analyst opinions on the stock remain divided, with buy, hold, and sell recommendations being roughly evenly split.
Worthington maintained his price target on the stock ahead of the company’s earnings report, which is scheduled to be released after the market closes on Thursday.
Worthington emphasized that Coinbase’s business is closely tied to token prices, with its core revenue being transaction-based. As the value of tokens increases and trading activity gains momentum, fees based on the value traded are expected to drive higher trading volumes, ultimately contributing to improved revenue for Coinbase.
Bitcoin ETFs Witness Significant Trading Volume
On February 14th, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs showcased notable figures, with Blackrock’s IBIT recording the lead with 1 million in volume.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) followed closely with 9 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC secured the third spot with 6 million. On the other hand, Ark Invest accumulated a volume of 9 million.
The nine ETFs’ total trading volume amounted to approximately .5 billion. Notably, the largest ETFs experienced higher trading volume than the previous day, with IBIT surpassing 0 million and GBTC exceeding 0 million.
Intriguingly, before the trading session, GBTC sent less than half of the Bitcoin it sent to Coinbase the previous day. Despite this decrease, GBTC’s total trading volume was 50% higher.
As the demand for Bitcoin continues to surge, ETFs play a crucial role in facilitating institutional and retail investors’ participation in the cryptocurrency market. The increased trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs highlights investors’ growing interest and confidence in digital assets.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at ,900 and encountering a critical resistance level at ,000.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
JPMorgan: 78% of Institutional Traders Surveyed Have No Plans to Trade Crypto
Global investment bank JPMorgan conducted a survey of over 4,000 institutional traders and found that 78% of them have no plans to trade crypto or digital coins, while 12% do. In addition, 61% of traders “predict artificial intelligence/machine learning as the most influential in shaping the future of trading over the next three years.” JPMorgan’s […]
Bitcoin News
JPMorgan Warns of Increased Risk for Crypto Market Due to Tether’s ‘Lack of Regulatory Compliance and Transparency’
JPMorgan has warned of increased risk for the crypto market resulting from Tether’s “lack of regulatory compliance and transparency.” The global investment bank’s analysts explained that other stablecoin issuers that have been more compliant with existing regulations are likely to benefit from the coming regulatory crackdown on stablecoins and gain market share.
JPMorgan Warns About Tether and Crypto Market Risks
Global investment bank JPMorgan released a report on Thursday cautioning that the rapid expansion of Tether’s USDT stablecoin is a risk for the crypto market overall. USDT is the world’s largest stablecoin, with a market capitalization exceeding billion at the time of writing.
JPMorgan’s analysts explained that Tether’s “lack of regulatory compliance and transparency” is an increasing risk for the overall crypto market. Noting that Tether falls short of competitor Circle, the issuer of USDC, when it comes to regulatory compliance for their stablecoins, the analysts wrote:
Stablecoins issuers that have been more aligned with existing regulations are likely to benefit from the coming regulatory crackdown on stablecoins and gain market share.
Responding to JPMorgan’s criticism of USDT and the risks to the crypto market, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated:
Tether’s market domination may be a ‘negative’ for competitors including those in the banking industry wishing for similar success but it’s never been a negative for the markets that need us the most.
“We’ve always worked closely with global regulators to educate them on the technology and provide guidance on how they must think about it,” the executive added.
Tether faced a million fine from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021 for misrepresenting its reserves, specifically claiming that USDT was fully backed by U.S. dollars. Following the fine, the crypto firm has strived to improve transparency by issuing quarterly attestations of its operations and finances. Tether reported a profit of .2 billion for 2023.
What do you think about JPMorgan analysts’ warning regarding Tether, USDT, and the risks to the overall crypto market? Let us know in the comments section below.
Morgan Stanley on Decline of US Dollar, JPMorgan Warns of a BTC Selloff, BTC Mining Improved, and More — Week in Review
Morgan Stanley has raised concerns about the potential decline of the U.S. dollar’s dominance due to the increasing interest in digital currencies. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has warned of a potential bitcoin selloff, anticipating a billion outflow from Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund. The profitability of Bitcoin’s SHA256 algorithm in mining operations has significantly improved, now ranking as the third most lucrative proof-of-work network. Finally, Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Mad Money expressed skepticism about bitcoin’s future, doubting its ability to recover amidst ongoing market challenges.
Morgan Stanley Sounds Alarm on US Dollar’s Dominance — Says Crypto Could Significantly Alter Currency Landscape
Morgan Stanley has warned about the risk of the U.S. dollar losing its dominance, fueled by growing interest in digital assets, including bitcoin. The investment bank stated: “A clear shift towards reducing dollar-dependency is evident, simultaneously fueling interest in digital currencies such as bitcoin, stablecoins, and CBDCs.”
JPMorgan Warns of Incoming Bitcoin Selloff With Anticipated Billion Grayscale Outflow
Global investment bank JPMorgan has warned of additional outflow from Grayscale’s bitcoin fund, cautioning that it will put “further pressure on bitcoin prices over the coming weeks.” The bank’s analyst also explained that the billion inflow into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles” or “from retail investors shifting from digital wallets held with exchanges/retail brokers to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs.”
Mining Digital Gold — These Are the Most Profitable Proof-of-Work Algorithms in 2024
In September 2022, Bitcoin’s SHA256 algorithm ranked as the seventh most lucrative proof-of-work (PoW) network for mining. Fast forward a year and four months, and this algorithm has ascended to become the third most profitable crypto network for mining operations.
Mad Money Host Jim Cramer Doubts Bitcoin Will Find Its Footing as Selloff Continues
Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC’s Mad Money show, has doubled down on his bearish bitcoin price outlook, predicting that the cryptocurrency will continue to struggle against the backdrop of a plummeting crypto market. “Unlikely that bitcoin finds its footing,” Cramer emphasized, after previously declaring the recent price drop a “nasty beginning” to a significant downward spiral.
Where would you put crypto market sentiment right now? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
JPMorgan Sees Downward Pressure Easing for Bitcoin as Grayscale Profit-Taking Fades
Global investment bank JPMorgan says that profit-taking from Grayscale’s bitcoin trust (GBTC) has largely happened already. “This would imply that most of the downward pressure on bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us,” the bank’s analyst explained.
JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Price Outlook
Global investment bank JPMorgan weighed in on the crypto market again this week following a bitcoin selloff that saw the price of BTC dropping from above K before the spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals to below K this week.
The bitcoin selloff is accompanied by massive outflows from Grayscale’s bitcoin trust (GBTC), which converted into a spot bitcoin ETF following the approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Jan. 10. Since Jan. 12, GBTC’s bitcoin holdings have decreased by 114,367.39 BTC, equivalent to .77 billion, based on the BTC exchange rates as of Jan. 27.
On Thursday, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said: “Given .3b has come out already from GBTC, we conclude that GBTC profit taking has largely happened already.” The analyst added:
This would imply that most of the downward pressure on bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.
Last week, Panigirtzoglou predicted that billion would exit GBTC, building on his earlier estimate that up to billion had been invested into GBTC in the secondary market during 2023 to take advantage of the discount to NAV. He explained that as this billion leaves the bitcoin space through GBTC profit-taking, bitcoin’s price will face downward pressure.
Sharing a similar view, Needham’s John Todaro said in a note that Thursday “registered one of the lowest days in net outflows from GBTC and the third consecutive day of declining outflows, which could indicate the beginning of a slowdown in redemptions.” He emphasized: “While it has been difficult to quantify how much more should come out of GBTC, we believe two of the largest drivers of selling [– outflows driven by the FTX estate and arbitrage funds –] are nearly done.”
This week, another JPMorgan analyst, Kenneth Worthington, said: “We think the catalyst in bitcoin ETFs that has pushed the ecosystem out of its winter will disappoint market participants.” The investment bank downgraded Coinbase stock (Nasdaq: COIN) from Neutral to Underweight.
Do you think JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou is right about the price of bitcoin? Let us know in the comments section below.
JPMorgan Sees Challenges Ahead for Crypto Market — Downgrades Coinbase Stock
Warning of a difficult time ahead for the crypto market, global investment bank JPMorgan has downgraded Coinbase stock. Emphasizing that crypto prices are already under pressure, JPMorgan warned of “greater potential for cryptocurrency ETF enthusiasm to further deflate,” driving with it lower crypto prices and trading volume.
JPMorgan’s Crypto Market Outlook, Coinbase’s Downgrade
Global investment bank JPMorgan downgraded Coinbase Global (Nasdaq: COIN) from Neutral to Underweight on Monday with a price target of . At the time of writing, Coinbase is trading at 3.43, down 28% over the past month. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington explained in a note Monday:
While we continue to see Coinbase as the dominant U.S. exchange in the crypto ecosystem and a leader in cryptocurrency trading and investing globally, we think the catalyst in bitcoin ETFs that has pushed the ecosystem out of its winter will disappoint market participants.
“We value the stock on a normalized earnings power at /share, suggesting [a] downside of 35% in its shares,” Worthington noted. While he acknowledged continued progress in initiatives like Coinbase’s derivatives platform and L2 network, Base, he sees the threat posed by a declining crypto market cap since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Jan. 10.
The analyst continued to explain that while it has been roughly one week since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, the initial net inflow into these funds “seems to be far less than the cryptocurrency community was touting in the financial media, and less than what we witnessed in the first week of flows into the Gold ETF when it launched in 2004.” He added: “We think much of the crypto-industry set a high bar for the ETF launches, and, while meaningful, we think expectations are simply too high and unrealistic.”
The JPMorgan analyst further detailed:
Cryptocurrency prices are already under pressure … We see greater potential for cryptocurrency ETF enthusiasm to further deflate, driving with it lower token prices, lower trading volume, and lower ancillary revenue opportunities for firms like Coinbase.
Last week, another JPMorgan analyst warned of an incoming bitcoin selloff with an anticipated billion Grayscale outflow. Grayscale converted its bitcoin trust (GBTC) into a spot ETF when the SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10. However, the conversion has been followed by massive outflows for Grayscale. Meanwhile, several newly launched spot bitcoin ETFs, particularly Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have seen strong inflows.
What do you think about JPMorgan’s view on the crypto market, spot bitcoin ETFs, and Coinbase? Let us know in the comments section below.
JPMorgan Warns of Incoming Bitcoin Selloff With Anticipated $3 Billion Grayscale Outflow
Global investment bank JPMorgan has warned of additional outflow from Grayscale’s bitcoin fund, cautioning that it will put “further pressure on bitcoin prices over the coming weeks.” The bank’s analyst also explained that the billion inflow into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles” or “from retail investors shifting from digital wallets held with exchanges/retail brokers to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs.”
JPMorgan Warns of Looming Bitcoin Selloff
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou shared his bitcoin’s price outlook on Linkedin Friday, specifically the impact of spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches and outflows from Grayscale’s bitcoin fund. Grayscale converted its bitcoin trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved it along with 10 other funds on Jan. 10.
“The bitcoin price declined by more than 10% since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs last week,” the JPMorgan analyst described. “It appears that profit taking, i.e. buy the rumor/sell the fact dynamics, took place in recent days as we had previously feared. The price of BTC rose past K in anticipation of the spot bitcoin ETF approval but dropped after the approval. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at ,697.
“The .5bn outflow from the Grayscale’s GBTC fund in particular has acted as a drag. It looks like GBTC investors who over the past year had been buying the GBTC fund at a significant discount to NAV to position for its eventual ETF conversion, have been taking full profit post ETF conversion by exiting the bitcoin space entirely rather than shifting to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs,” Panigirtzoglou detailed.
Noting that he has previously estimated that up to billion had been invested into GBTC in the secondary market during 2023 to take advantage of the discount to NAV, the JPMorgan analyst explained:
If the previous bn estimate proves correct and given .5bn has exited already then there could be an additional .5bn still to exit the bitcoin space via profit taking on GBTC thus putting further pressure on bitcoin prices over the coming weeks.
Cumulatively, Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF has seen an outflow of 50,106.59 BTC since Jan. 12, valued at over billion.
Panigirtzoglou also shared his analysis of the other spot bitcoin ETFs that launched on Jan. 11, including Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
“Outside GBTC, the other spot bitcoin ETFs got a decent bn of inflow in only four days: Thursday 11th, Friday 12th, Tuesday 16th, and Wednesday 17th. This is comparable to the inflows seen during previous bitcoin product launches such as the launch of CME bitcoin futures or the launch of futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” the JPMorgan analyst noted, adding:
As expected most of this bn of inflow reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles such as futures-based bitcoin ETFs which show outflows of close to 0mn since last Thursday or from retail investors shifting from digital wallets held with exchanges/retail brokers to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs.
What do you think about JPMorgan’s bitcoin price prediction and the estimated outflow from Grayscale? Let us know in the comments section below.