The World Gold Council’s 2024 survey reveals that central banks plan to increase gold reserves amid geopolitical and financial uncertainties. Over 80% of respondents expect global bullion holdings to rise, and 29% of central banks plan to boost their own reserves. Motivations include strategic rebalancing, domestic production, and market concerns like crisis risks and inflation. […]
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin Price Slide: Extends Losses Amid Increased Selling Pressure
Bitcoin price extended its losses and traded below the ,000 level. BTC is showing bearish signs and might extend losses below the ,600 level.
- Bitcoin remained in a bearish zone and traded below ,000.
- The price is trading below ,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
- There is a connecting trend line forming with resistance at ,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
- The pair could continue to move down and even trade below the ,500 support zone.
Bitcoin Price Extends Its Decline
Bitcoin price struggled to recover above the ,500 resistance zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and started a fresh decline from the ,256 high. There was a move below the ,500 level.
There was a clear move below the ,500 and ,000 support levels. Finally, the price tested ,600. A low was formed at ,611 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the ,000 level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the ,256 swing high to the ,611 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below ,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting trend line forming with resistance at ,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the ,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the ,256 swing high to the ,611 low. The first major resistance could be ,250. The next key resistance could be ,500.
A clear move above the ,500 resistance might start a decent increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the ,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the ,500 resistance in the near term.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the ,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the ,000 level.
The first major support is ,600. The next support is now forming near ,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the ,200 support zone in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – ,000, followed by ,500.
Major Resistance Levels – ,000, and ,500.
Increased Bitcoin ETF Adoption Propels BTC Dominance To Highest Level Since 2021
Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a three-year high, signaling strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETF holding the largest digital asset and a challenging period for smaller tokens.
Bitcoin accounted for nearly 55% of the .4 trillion digital asset market at the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021. On Saturday, in particular, BTC’s dominance jumped to 57% as it briefly touched the ,000 mark.
The next largest tokens by market share include Ethereum (ETH), Tether’s USDT stablecoin, Binance exchange’s native token Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL).
BTC’s Rise Fueled By Successful US Bitcoin ETF Launches
According to Bloomberg, the recent success of the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs from prominent issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s rise.
These ETFs have garnered approximately billion in assets, making their debut one of the most successful in fund category history.
The inflows into these ETFs drove BTC to its current all-time high (ATH) of ,798 in mid-March, a clear resistance level for the largest cryptocurrency on the market, as evidenced by its inability to consolidate above the ,000 level following this achievement.
Although BTC is down about 6% since then, smaller digital assets such as Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen more significant declines of nearly 30% over the past month.
This drop coincided with reduced expectations for looser US monetary policy settings, often fueling speculative gains.
Hong Kong-Listed ETFs Boosts Bitcoin And Ethereum
Institutional investors’ allocations to the US Bitcoin ETF have greatly influenced Bitcoin’s performance relative to the rest of the market. Benjamin Celermajer, director of digital-asset investment at Magnet Capital, noted that strong institutional demand is a key driver.
On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw notable price jumps following indications that asset managers are preparing to launch Hong Kong-listed ETFs on both tokens. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to ,575, while ETH jumped 6.2% to ,260.
These rallies had a positive impact on the broader crypto market, lifting other notable tokens such as Polygon (MATIC), Cardano (ADA), the dog-themed meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana, which is now the top 5 cryptocurrency market winner, up over 8% on Monday.
Interestingly, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets traded in US dollars, has more than tripled since the beginning of last year, marking a significant rebound from the bear market experienced in 2022.
Lastly, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, an event that will cut the new supply of the token in half, expected around April 20th.
Previous Halving events have acted as a tailwind for prices, although there are growing doubts about whether history will repeat itself given BTC’s recent all-time high achievement.
BTC has successfully maintained its position above the ,000 threshold and has consolidated in this range. However, it is important to note that losses have accumulated over longer time frames.
Over the past fourteen and thirty days of trading, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines of over 21% and 24% respectively.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Tether Launches USDT on Celo Targeting Increased Usability
Tether, the company behind the issuance of USDT, the largest stablecoin in the cryptocurrency market, has announced the launch of its currency on Celo, an EVM-compatible blockchain. Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, stated that this move was focused on enhancing the “usability and accessibility of Tether for millions of people.” Tether Announces USDT’s Launch on […]
Bitcoin News
FinCEN Finds Increased Cryptocurrency Involvement in Human Trafficking
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has released an analysis that reports an alleged increase in the use of cryptocurrency in human trafficking cases. According to FinCEN, reports of cryptocurrency linked to these purposes grew from 336 in 2020 to 1,975 in 2021, an increase of almost 500%. FinCEN Alerts of Crypto Usage Linked to […]
Bitcoin News
JPMorgan Warns of Increased Risk for Crypto Market Due to Tether’s ‘Lack of Regulatory Compliance and Transparency’
JPMorgan has warned of increased risk for the crypto market resulting from Tether’s “lack of regulatory compliance and transparency.” The global investment bank’s analysts explained that other stablecoin issuers that have been more compliant with existing regulations are likely to benefit from the coming regulatory crackdown on stablecoins and gain market share.
JPMorgan Warns About Tether and Crypto Market Risks
Global investment bank JPMorgan released a report on Thursday cautioning that the rapid expansion of Tether’s USDT stablecoin is a risk for the crypto market overall. USDT is the world’s largest stablecoin, with a market capitalization exceeding billion at the time of writing.
JPMorgan’s analysts explained that Tether’s “lack of regulatory compliance and transparency” is an increasing risk for the overall crypto market. Noting that Tether falls short of competitor Circle, the issuer of USDC, when it comes to regulatory compliance for their stablecoins, the analysts wrote:
Stablecoins issuers that have been more aligned with existing regulations are likely to benefit from the coming regulatory crackdown on stablecoins and gain market share.
Responding to JPMorgan’s criticism of USDT and the risks to the crypto market, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated:
Tether’s market domination may be a ‘negative’ for competitors including those in the banking industry wishing for similar success but it’s never been a negative for the markets that need us the most.
“We’ve always worked closely with global regulators to educate them on the technology and provide guidance on how they must think about it,” the executive added.
Tether faced a million fine from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021 for misrepresenting its reserves, specifically claiming that USDT was fully backed by U.S. dollars. Following the fine, the crypto firm has strived to improve transparency by issuing quarterly attestations of its operations and finances. Tether reported a profit of .2 billion for 2023.
What do you think about JPMorgan analysts’ warning regarding Tether, USDT, and the risks to the overall crypto market? Let us know in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Blockchain Surpasses Half-Terabyte Amid Soaring Transactions and Increased Block Capacity
Although bitcoin’s price hasn’t eclipsed its historic peak, this year the network has shattered multiple records. These include reaching the highest level of difficulty, achieving an all-time high in total hashrate, and setting a new record for daily confirmed transactions. In 2023, another new milestone was achieved as the distributed ledger expanded to half a terabyte, surpassing 500 gigabytes in size to accommodate the entire blockchain’s records.
Bitcoin Exceeds 500 GB Blockchain Size Amidst Unprecedented Transactional Growth
To maintain an unpruned Bitcoin blockchain, node operators now need in excess of 500 gigabytes (GB) of available storage. Downloading the full blockchain would take about 47 hours and 44 minutes using a standard 24 Mbps ADSL connection.
Conversely, with a 100 Mbps fiber optic connection, the process shortens to roughly 11 hours and 22 minutes, assuming there’s no network congestion or server restrictions. Current data reveals that the Bitcoin blockchain’s size has reached 534.49 GB, exceeding half a terabyte (TB).
Around 431 days ago, or one year and two months back on October 15, 2022, the blockchain was approximately 432 GB. This indicates a growth of just over 100 GB in the past year, a rate faster than usual.
This acceleration is primarily due to the average Bitcoin block size increasing significantly in 2023, with this trend notably beginning on January 2, 2023. The rise of Bitcoin block sizes stems from the Ordinals inscription trend that started in December 2022.
By the first week of January, the average block size increased and by Feb. 12, 2023, it ramped up to 2.517 megabytes (MB). A great example is the mean average block size for Bitcoin between Jan. 1, 2020, and Nov. 30, 2022, (1,064 days) was approximately 1.2 MB.
But the mean average block size for Bitcoin from Jan. 3, 2023, to Dec. 19, 2023, (350 days) was approximately 1.705 MB. Across the entire 365 days in 2016, the mean average block size for Bitcoin was .781 MB, and in 2017 across the entire year, the mean average was .949 MB.
Besides 2018, the following years thereafter the average block size and the mean average across 365-day intervals has always been above 1 MB. The mean average for 2022 was 1.19 MB and so far, while 2023 is close to done, the mean average is now 1.70 MB.
While it is a considerable increase from yesteryears, 1.7 MB is still not enough for current block space demand. Presently, there are 306,379 transactions stuck in the mempool (a backlog of unconfirmed transfers) and miners need to clear 349 blocks just to get ahead.
A high-priority fee onchain on Dec. 20, 2023, is .32 per transaction. With Ordinal inscriptions and traditional monetary transfers, BTC is seeing upwards of 600,000 transactions per day or an average of 7.93 transactions confirmed per second.
The growth and evolution of the Bitcoin network in 2023 underscore the dynamic nature of the crypto landscape. While the size of the blockchain is increasing, surpassing the half-terabyte mark, Bitcoin continues to display remarkable resilience and adaptability.
The significant increase in average block size, primarily driven by the Ordinals inscription trend, reflects the ever-changing demands and innovations within the network. However, this growth has also highlighted the limitations of the current infrastructure, as evidenced by the considerable number of transactions stuck in the mempool and the need for higher transaction fees to expedite processing.
What do you think about the Bitcoin blockchain crossing beyond 500 GB? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Institutional Traders’ BTC Holding Percentage Increased ‘Almost Twofold’ Between January and September — Study
The bitcoin held by institutional traders (INS) in their respective crypto portfolios saw an “almost twofold” increase in the initial three quarters of 2023. Institutional traders’ BTC allocation shifted from under 40% in January to nearly 50% by the end of September.
The Spot Bitcoin ETF Factor
According to a study conducted by the crypto platform Bybit, the bitcoin held by INS saw an “almost twofold increase in their Bitcoin holding percentage” during the initial three quarters of 2023. The study report suggests that the accumulation trends by these traders depict a pattern which is distinct from that of VIP and retail traders.
For context, the BTC holding percentages for the VIP and retail traders at the start of 2023 and the end of Q3 are almost identical. Even after the June BTC price rally, which saw the crypto asset surge past the ,000 mark for the first time in 2023, these traders did not change their holding levels.
The study data meanwhile shows that institutional traders’ BTC allocation had shifted from under 40% in January to nearly 50% by the end of September. Coincidentally, September was the month when large asset managers like Blackrock began to signal their intention to launch spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“This alignment with the prevailing positive market sentiment toward Bitcoin can be attributed to favourable lawsuit outcomes, fostering anticipation for the SEC’s potential approval of a spot BTC ETF,” the Bybit report stated.
The report also notes that retail traders had the lowest holding percentage in BTC composition compared to INS and VIP.
VIP and Retail Traders Shun Ether Post Shapella Upgrade
According to the study findings, traders’ ether (ETH) holdings during the period fell because of “a broader lack of interest” in the crypto asset since the Shapella upgrade. On the other hand, the INS ether holdings percentage at the end of Q3 had gone past 20%.
However, when it comes to stablecoin holdings, retail traders “consistently exhibit the highest stablecoin percentage.” In the past, when bulls dominated markets, retail traders tended “to decrease their stablecoin holding percentage.”
In contrast, institutional traders have tended to reduce their stablecoin holdings in bearish markets and only increase them in bullish markets. Such maneuvers point to successful market timing by institutional traders, according to the study report.
What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport
Matrixport, a leading digital finance platform, today, November 22, released a comprehensive research note focusing on the significant implications of yesterday’s developments in the crypto industry, particularly regarding the prospects of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.
Following the guilty plea of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and the substantial financial settlements involved, Matrixport suggests that the path for approving a spot Bitcoin ETF might have become significantly clearer. The note highlights the regulatory crackdowns and compliance upgrades in the crypto sector, indicating a shift towards greater regulatory alignment with traditional financial (TradFi) systems.
“Some would argue that the US agencies have cleaned up the industry this year by dismantling the US crypto-related banks, as two of them were running an internal ledger that crypto companies could use 24/7 to transfer fiat. Arguably, few (perceived) major actors are left, and with Bitcoin only declining -3.4% during the last 24 hours, the market is stomaching a major risk-off event,” Matrixport remarks.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds At 100% Now?
The company points out that with stringent enforcement actions and enhanced compliance programs becoming the norm among crypto exchanges, the differentiation between regulated and non-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges may become a key metric in 2024. This shift is seen as instrumental in the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, a development long anticipated by the industry.
“The result will likely be that more exchanges will enhance their compliance programs and become part of a surveillance-sharing agreement, which will be instrumental in approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US,” the firm stated, adding, “With this plea deal, the expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF might have increased to 100% as the industry will be forced to follow the rules that TradFi firms must follow.”
The firm believes that this “whitewashing” of the industry will not only enhance Bitcoin’s adoption by institutional players but also position it as a safe-haven asset in investment portfolios. “More importantly, this industry’s whitewashing will strengthen the Bitcoin adoption case for institutional players and will likely become a safe-haven asset in investors’ portfolios,” Matrixport predicts.
The note also touches on the anticipated sale of the FTX exchange and its potential relaunch under a US securities law-compliant management team by Q3 2024. Matrixport speculates that this could lead to significant inflows, estimated between -50 billion, into any US-listed Bitcoin ETF. They also note the increasing trend of crypto firms making markets on CME-listed crypto derivatives, indicating a shift from retail-focused, unregulated exchanges to those that are fully regulated and cater to institutional clients.
‘Dark Cloud Has Been Removed’ As ETF Makes Progress
Analysts and industry experts have echoed Matrixport’s sentiments. Will Clemente, a noted analyst, stated, “With resolution on Binance, just a matter of weeks until Bitcoin ETF approval now.” Tony “The Bull” Severino, head of research at NewsBTC, commented, “A dark cloud has just been removed from the crypto market.” Conversely, Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer at Davis Polk, offered a more cautious view, suggesting that “It’s far more likely an ETF decision led the Binance resolution than the other way around imo. And I’m not convinced either is that likely.”
Remarkably, there has been some movement in the spot ETF approval process in the last few days. Ark Invest has kicked off the third round of amendments to the S-1 filings, Grayscale had a meeting with the US Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday regarding its “uplisting.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,483.
Bitcoin Miners Brace for Increased Challenge as Network Difficulty Hits New High of 57.32 Trillion
On October 3, 2023, at block height 810,432, the Bitcoin network experienced its second consecutive difficulty increase since September 19. The challenge of uncovering block rewards escalated as the difficulty reached a new pinnacle, rising by 0.35% to 57.32 trillion on Tuesday.
Bitcoin Network Difficulty Peaks at 57.32 Trillion
For the subsequent fortnight, Bitcoin miners confront a heightened level of difficulty following Tuesday’s 0.35% rise at block height 810,432. The metric climbed from 57.11 trillion to its present value of 57.32 trillion.
A difficulty rating of 57.32 trillion implies an elevated degree of effort needed to generate new blocks on the network. The difficulty undergoes adjustments every 2,016 blocks or approximately every two weeks.
If a greater number of miners enter the network and contribute computing power, leading to the mining of 2,016 blocks in less than two weeks, the difficulty will rise. Conversely, should miners exit the network and the same number of blocks take longer than two weeks to mine, the difficulty will decrease.
The most recent adjustment (+0.35%) was an increase, as was the change (+5.48%) that transpired on September 19. A difficulty level of 57.32 trillion creates a significant obstacle for miners seeking to discover blocks.
Miners must create a hash from the block’s data when attempting to mine new blocks. Utilizing the SHA256 hash function, a hash is generated as a fixed-length string of numbers and letters based on input data. Miners strive to find a hash lower than the current target value determined by the network’s degree of difficulty.
Bitcoin.com News reported four days ago that despite this escalated difficulty height, bitcoin miners have not been discouraged, and the hashrate remains above the 400 exahash per second (EH/s) range. As of October 3rd, Bitcoin’s seven-day simple moving average (SMA) for hashpower is 412 EH/s, following the increase in difficulty.
Although the difficulty is considerable, a modest 0.35% uptick may not deter miners over the next two weeks, and another increase could be on the horizon. The next change is anticipated to occur on or around October 17, 2023.
What do you think about the difficulty rising for bitcoin miners? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.