State Street Global Advisors has partnered with Galaxy Asset Management to provide advanced digital asset-based strategies, expanding investor access to the digital asset ecosystem beyond cryptocurrencies and bitcoin. “We believe we are in a strong position to make digital assets more accessible to the broader investment community through the creation of new ETFs offering exposure […]
Bitcoin News
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn: Mt Gox Bitcoin Distributions Unlikely to Disrupt Market
After a decade-long wait, creditors of the defunct Mt Gox exchange are set to receive in-kind distributions of bitcoin and bitcoin cash starting in July. The head of research from Galaxy Digital predicts the market impact of these distributions will be less severe than anticipated. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Likely to Retain Mt Gox Bitcoin Distributions […]
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana: Galaxy Digital CEO Predicts Next Market Movements
Mike Novogratz, the CEO and founder of Galaxy Digital, shared his insights on the current state of the cryptocurrency market. According to Bloomberg, Novogratz predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will likely remain within a relatively narrow trading range for the current quarter as the adoption of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance continues to evolve.
Stagnant Crypto Market
Per the report, Novogratz described the current phase in the crypto market as a consolidation period. He emphasized that Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and other cryptocurrencies, including Solana (SOL), are expected to consolidate.
This consolidation phase suggests that the Bitcoin price will likely trade within a range of approximately ,000 to ,000 until significant market events drive prices higher.
The crypto market has experienced a period of stagnation following the historic bull run witnessed in the past two quarters. This surge was fueled by the launch of spot US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Bitcoin Halving, which reduced the supply of new BTC.
However, Bitcoin’s price trend reversed due to diminishing optimism surrounding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), amid consistently strong economic indicators.
According to Novogratz’s analysis, if his predictions hold, Solana could continue to consolidate within its current trading range of 0 to 0. This consolidation has been observed over the past month, indicating a period of stability for the cryptocurrency.
Similarly, Ethereum’s price has closely mirrored Bitcoin’s movements and has traded between the ,870 and ,200 levels.
Ethereum recently failed to consolidate above the significant ,000 mark reached in mid-March. As a result, Ethereum has experienced a period of price consolidation within the range above.
Bitcoin Volatility Persists
Novogratz acknowledged the tailwinds that propelled the market during the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
Galaxy’s CEO believes that these tailwinds will likely persist throughout the current quarter and possibly the next unless there are significant developments, such as the Fed initiating rate cuts due to an economic slowdown or until the regulatory landscape becomes clearer after the upcoming election.
Moreover, Novogratz noted a significant shift in counterparties’ willingness to lend crypto for extended periods without collateral, a trend that was not prevalent just six months ago. He emphasized that engagement in the crypto space has reached a new level, with growing interest from individuals and institutions alike.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin experienced a 2.7% decline, trading at ,400. Since achieving a record high of ,700 on March 14, the largest cryptocurrency in the market has undergone a 16% decline. Despite this, Galaxy Digital reported notable first-quarter results, with net income more than tripling to 1.7 million.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Galaxy Digital to Debut $100 Million Crypto Fund Initiative
Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency venture capital firm, is in talks with third parties to launch its first cooperative crypto investment fund. The fund, called Galaxy Ventures Fund I, LP, will focus on crypto projects still in their early stages and is seeking to raise and allocate 0 million to 30 startups over the next three […]
Bitcoin News
Galaxy CEO: US Debt Crisis Drives Demand for Bitcoin
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has proposed several measures to prevent a U.S. debt spiral. The executive explained that the U.S. debt crisis makes it “so easy to convince people to buy bitcoin and other hard assets.” He emphasized that implementing these measures could give the U.S. a chance to avoid a “debt death spiral.” […]
Bitcoin News
Galaxy Digital CEO: Bitcoin Unlikely to Fall Below $55,000 — ‘That’s the New Floor’
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz says he doesn’t believe the price of bitcoin will fall back down to the K-K level. “I think that’s the new floor unless something dramatic happens,” he described. “This has been a wild ride of an asset,” he added, noting that we’re in price discovery mode and if you look […]
Bitcoin News
Galaxy Digital CEO Anticipates BTC Reaching $100K This Year Citing ‘Runaway Momentum’ in Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz firmly believes that bitcoin will reach 0K this year. “Right now there are more buyers and sellers,” he explained, adding that there is “runaway momentum” in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In addition, he pointed to a “new phase of bitcoin” as the asset class welcomes baby boomers. He further asserted […]
Bitcoin News
Galaxy Digital Sees ‘Tremendous Global Demand for Bitcoin’ — CEO Says ‘There’s a New Army of Buyers’
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz sees “a tremendous global demand for bitcoin,” emphasizing: “This is probably the first time in the history of bitcoin that we have true price discovery.” Noting that there is “a new army of buyers” and there is also “an army of salespeople,” he expects the price of bitcoin to be […]
Bitcoin News
Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle? Galaxy Lead Researcher Answers
In a comprehensive analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, delved into the intricacies of the current Bitcoin market cycle, answering the question “Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle?” As Bitcoin trades robustly around ,000, with a notable spike to .000 yesterday, the crypto landscape is witnessing unprecedented dynamics, marked by a surge in ETF inflows, strategic acquisitions by corporate entities, and a palpable shift in investor sentiment towards digital assets.
Thorn emphasized how different this cycle is:
Effectively, the bull runs of 2017 and 2020 hadn’t yet begun at this stage in Bitcoin’s supply schedule.
52 days before 2nd Halving (9-JUL-16) BTCUSD 5.22 (-59.86% from ATH)
52 days before 3rd Halving (11-MAY-20) BTCUSD ,174 (-68.56% from ATH)
52 days before 4th Halving (20-APR-24) BTCUSD ,330 (-12.16% from ATH)
Why This Bitcoin Cycle Is Different
Central to his analysis is the record-breaking influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Thorn highlighting, “The BTC ETFs took in a whopping net 6m of BTC yesterday (Tuesday Feb. 27), with BlackRock alone seeing 0m of inflows, its largest ever day.” This significant movement of funds not only underscores the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin but also marks a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency’s journey towards mainstream financial recognition.
A key aspect of Thorn’s analysis is the unwavering strength of Bitcoin’s long-term holder base, which he estimates to hold about 75% of the total BTC supply. “Long-term holders are still mostly holding strong,” Thorn notes, emphasizing the community’s resilience and faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. This demographic, characterized by their ‘diamond hands’, plays a crucial role in stabilizing the market and buffering against the volatility that often defines the crypto space.
Thorn further elaborates on the analytical tools and metrics that provide insight into Bitcoin’s market behavior. He introduces the MVRV Z-Score, a novel approach to understanding the cyclicality of Bitcoin’s price action by comparing its market value to its realized value. This metric offers a window into the perceived overvaluation or undervaluation of Bitcoin at any given point. Currently, the MVRV Z-Score is close to 2, while previous cycle tops saw the metric spike to 8 (in 2021) or even above 12 (in prior halving cycles).
Addressing the speculation around the acceleration of the Bitcoin cycle, Thorn firmly dispels concerns that the market is prematurely peaking. He argues against the notion that we are “speedrunning the ‘cycle’”, instead asserting that the advent of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States represents a transformative shift with far-reaching implications. “This time is different,” Thorn asserts, pointing to the ETFs’ disruption of traditional Bitcoin price cycles and their impact on investor behavior and intra-crypto dynamics.
The Spot Bitcoin ETF Effect
Thorn underscored the transformative impact of Bitcoin ETFs, positing that we are merely at the beginning of a significant shift in how Bitcoin is accessed and invested in, particularly by the institutional sector. “Despite incredible volumes and flows, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Bitcoin ETF story is still just getting started,” he stated, pointing to the untapped potential within the wealth management sector.
In their October 2023 report titled “Sizing the Market for the Bitcoin ETF,” Galaxy laid out a compelling case for the future growth of Bitcoin ETFs. The report highlights that wealth managers and financial advisors represent the primary net new accessible market for these vehicles, offering a previously unavailable avenue for allocating client capital to BTC exposure.
The magnitude of this untapped market is substantial. According to Galaxy’s research, there is approximately trillion of assets under management (AUM) across banks and broker/dealers that has yet to activate access to spot BTC ETFs. This includes .1 trillion managed by broker-dealers, .9 trillion by banks, and .3 trillion by registered investment advisors, cumulating to a total US Wealth Management AUM of .3 trillion as of October 2023. This data underscores the vast potential for Bitcoin ETFs to penetrate deeper into the financial ecosystem, catalyzing a new wave of investment flows into Bitcoin.
Thorn further speculated on the upcoming April round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings, suggesting that these filings might reveal significant Bitcoin allocations by some of the largest names in the investment world. “In April, we will also get the first round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings, and (I’m just guessing here…) we are likely to see some huge names have allocated to Bitcoin,” Thorn anticipated. This development, he argues, could create a feedback loop where new platforms and investments drive higher prices, which in turn attracts more investment.
The implications of this feedback loop are profound. As more wealth management platforms begin to offer access to Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of new capital could significantly impact BTC’s price dynamics, liquidity, and overall market structure. This transition represents a key moment in the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class, moving from a speculative investment to a staple in diversified portfolios managed by financial advisors and wealth managers.
We Are Still Early
Thorn’s optimism extends beyond the immediate market indicators to the broader implications of Bitcoin’s integration into the financial mainstream. He anticipates a new all-time high for Bitcoin in the near term, fueled by a combination of factors including the ETFs’ momentum, increasing acceptance of BTC as a legitimate asset class, and the anticipatory buzz surrounding the upcoming halving event. “All this is to say, my answer to that burning question – where are we in the cycle? – is that we haven’t even begun to reach the heights this is likely to go,” he concludes.
Thorn’s analysis culminates in a bullish forecast for Bitcoin. As the community stands on the cusp of the fourth BTC halving, Thorn’s insights offer a compelling vision of a market poised for unprecedented growth, driven by a confluence of technological innovation, regulatory evolution, and shifting global economic currents. “Bitcoin is prime time now, and while it might be hard to believe, things are just starting to get exciting,” Thorn declares, capturing the essence of a market at the threshold of a new era.
At press time, BTC traded at ,065.
Galaxy CEO Cautions Bitcoin May Fall To $42,000 Ahead Of Major Rally
In an exclusive interview with CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, provided an in-depth analysis of the current state and future trajectory of Bitcoin amidst a rapidly evolving financial landscape. The conversation spanned a variety of topics, including the recent surge in Bitcoin prices following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin Amid Market Consolidation And Institutional Adoption
Opening the discussion, Novogratz touched on the remarkable rally Bitcoin has experienced, while also suggesting a potential consolidation phase. “We’ve come a long way fast, both in US stocks and in crypto… It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s some consolidation,” he stated.
Despite this, he emphasized the significant milestone achieved with the opening of the institutional and Retail Investment Advisor (RIA) channels to Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs. “We’ve got baby boomers who own most of the wealth in America, and they’re getting their first easy access to Bitcoin… And I don’t think that’s going to stop,” Novogratz elaborated, underlining the transformative impact of ETFs on Bitcoin accessibility.
When probed about the pace at which financial advisors could start recommending Bitcoin, Novogratz offered an optimistic forecast: “I would tell you at least double in six months.” He attributed this to both demand from clients and the inevitable adaptation of large platforms. “Their customers are calling and bitching at them and saying, we want to buy Bitcoin with you,” he quoted, highlighting the grassroots demand driving institutional platforms towards crypto adoption.
Addressing potential short-term price movements, Novogratz candidly acknowledged the possibility of a downturn. “It could be some regulatory kerfuffle, it could just be the market got a little long and you get people scared,” he speculated, pinpointing a price range of “,000… ,000” as the potential downside. This acknowledgment of volatility underscores his realistic view of the crypto market’s susceptibility to external pressures and internal dynamics.
BTC Price Targets
Looking ahead, Novogratz responded to Tom Lee’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching 0,000 by year’s end with cautious optimism. While hesitant to commit to a specific number, he concurred that Bitcoin is likely to retest its all-time highs, emphasizing the market’s momentum when it attracts new buyers.
“You know, when markets get new buyers and start breaking out, it’s hard to have a price prediction,” he remarked, suggesting that surpassing the ,000 mark could open the door to unprecedented price levels like 5,000 to 0,000, contingent on broader economic conditions such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies.
Delving into Bitcoin’s correlation with the macroeconomic environment, Novogratz presented a nuanced perspective. He acknowledged Bitcoin’s dual identity as both a macro asset and a nascent technology in an adoption cycle.
On the topic of Bitcoin’s correlation with broader economic indicators, Novogratz highlighted the dual narrative that has come to define Bitcoin’s market behavior. “It’s a macro asset…And the second, we’re early on in the life cycle, so there’s an adoption cycle,” he pointed out.
Thus, he emphasized the unique position of Bitcoin at the intersection of a burgeoning asset class and a macroeconomic hedge. He added, “Right now, this is all adoption. This is new buyers coming in and being told the big-picture story that you need to have this in your portfolio.”