U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw the largest net inflow since June 7, 2024, accumulating 9.45 million. Fidelity’s FBTC led the inflow on Monday with .03 million. Fifth Consecutive Day of Inflows for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs On Monday, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded .36 billion in trading volume and attracted 9.45 million in inflows. […]
Bitcoin News
US Bitcoin ETFs Record $226M in Outflows, Fidelity Led the Pack With $106M Exiting
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a decline on Thursday, with 6.21 million in outflows recorded during the trading sessions. Fidelity’s FBTC saw the largest outflows, with 6 million exiting the fund. Massive Outflows Strike U.S. Bitcoin ETFs On Wednesday, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs attracted 0.8 million, but on Thursday, they faced net […]
Bitcoin News
Fidelity Omits Staking From Spot Ethereum ETF Proposal
Amid growing speculation about the potential approval of spot ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Fidelity Investments has revised its ether ETF filing, omitting all staking features previously included in the proposal. This update follows reports that ETF issuers were allegedly instructed to revise their 19b-4 filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Fidelity Alters […]
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Fidelity Digital Assets Study: Bitcoin’s Volatility Declines as It Grows, Echoing Historical Asset Trends
A new study by Fidelity Digital Assets reveals that as bitcoin matures, its volatility is decreasing, making it less volatile than several S&P 500 stocks. “As the asset class matures and its total market cap grows, the inflow of capital is expected to have a smaller impact because it will be flowing into a larger […]
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Fidelity Digital Assets ‘Signals’ Report Revises Bitcoin Outlook to ‘Neutral’
The latest quarterly report from Fidelity Digital Assets (FDA) Research reveals key insights into the bitcoin and ethereum markets as of Q1 2024. With a detailed analysis of market conditions and future outlooks, FDA’s research report provides several predictions for short and long-term trends. Fidelity Digital Assets Spotlights Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Shifts in New […]
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GBTC Drops Nearly 3,000 BTC in a Day as Blackrock, Fidelity Command Record Inflow Streaks
Recent market data highlights that spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced a net outflow of 3.8 million on April 8, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw a substantial outflow of 3 million. GBTC Continues to Face Steep Outflows As of yesterday, GBTC possessed 325,686.78 BTC, but as per Grayscale’s website, this […]
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Fidelity Incorporates Staking in Spot Ethereum ETF Offering to Boost Fund’s Income
On March 18, the financial behemoth Fidelity Investments updated its application for a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) to encompass staking capabilities. The firm, Fidelity, has made it known that the sponsor might “from time to time” opt to “stake a portion of the fund’s assets through one or more trusted staking providers.” Fidelity Updates […]
Bitcoin News
Expert Predicts Bitcoin At $750,000 As Fidelity Advises 1-3% Allocation
In a major shift within the financial industry, Fidelity Investments, with its colossal .6 trillion in assets under administration, is now recommending that the traditional 60/40 portfolio model should evolve to include a 1-3% allocation to crypto, specifically through its spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). This groundbreaking move is not just a nod to the burgeoning crypto market but a potential catalyst for unprecedented demand, potentially channeling hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin.
Matt Ballensweig, Head of Go Network at BitGo, took to X (formerly Twitter) to express his anticipation, stating, “I’ve said this since the day of ETF approval – now that Pandora’s box has been opened, the multi-trillion dollar asset managers will sell BTC and crypto through their massive distribution channels for us. Fidelity now creates blueprint portfolios with 1-3% crypto.”
Echoing this sentiment, Will Clemente III, a renowned analyst, remarked on the potential ripple effects of Fidelity’s recommendation. “Fidelity now recommending a 1-3% crypto allocation in your portfolio. Gateway drug. What happens when that 1-3% becomes 3-6%? Slowly then suddenly,” Clemente noted, highlighting the potential for growth in crypto allocation.
What This Could Mean For Bitcoin Price
Adam Cochran, a partner at CEHV, further elaborated on the implications of Fidelity’s move for Bitcoin’s adoption and price trajectory. In a detailed analysis shared on X, Cochran laid out an ambitious future where the inclusion of crypto in traditional portfolios could lead to a substantial reevaluation of Bitcoin’s value. “How fucking wild is this to see. 60/40 portfolios are now 59/39/2,” Cochran began, underlining the historic milestone of crypto becoming a core asset class.
Cochran compares the adoption rates of the internet to cryptocurrency, stating, “Hell, the internet was 30 years in the making and didn’t reach 10m users till 1995. But the most non-conservative estimates put crypto ownership at 450M worldwide (conservative is more like 200M) that’s like the internet in 2001.”
He highlights the outsized economic impact of digital advancements, “Today the internet has somewhere around 5.5B users – 12x what it did in 2001. But according to BEA, the impact of the digital economy has been exponentially outsized with each year of growth.” By drawing this parallel, Cochran sets the stage for a crypto market that could see exponential growth in value and influence.
Cochran’s approach to calculating Bitcoin’s future valuation involves analyzing the potential influx of funds from traditional investments. “If that follows the change to 59/39/2, you’re looking at .6T in new buying… Given the current market is .24 trillion total marketcap… we get a cash to value rate of 9.3%.”
The core of Cochran’s analysis lies in his valuation prediction, where he states, “Prorata between coins at their current ratios and that’s 8,500 BTC and ,635 ETH in raw spot buying. But since we know notional causes things to run, and we’ve got things like ETH’s yield demand and burn, we’re usually several multiples above the price of our raw spot demand.”
Cochran’s conclusion reflects a strong belief in the transformative potential of cryptocurrencies within traditional investment portfolios. “At the end of the day, even gold hasn’t broken into the 60/40 portfolio in a meaningful way, so I think blowing past the T mcap of gold by a good multiple over time is a no-brainer.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,175.
Fidelity Director Analyzes Bitcoin Potential: Could It Hit $6 Trillion Market Cap?
In recent years, the debate surrounding Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential market share relative to gold has garnered significant attention, as recently approved Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) can bring Bitcoin significantly closer to gold in key metrics.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has put forward an analysis that sheds light on this subject. By examining the value of “monetary gold” and Bitcoin’s market capitalization, as well as considering the impact of halvings on Bitcoin’s supply, Timmer presents insights into the future dynamics of these two assets.
Gold Vs Bitcoin
Timmer’s analysis begins by estimating the share of gold held by central banks and private investors for monetary purposes, excluding jewelry and industrial usage. While this estimation is not exact, based on data from the World Gold Council, Timmer suggests that monetary gold accounts for approximately 40% of the total above-ground gold.
Drawing upon his previous calculations, Timmer posits that Bitcoin has the potential to capture around a quarter of the monetary gold market, with monetary gold valued at around trillion and Bitcoin’s market capitalization at trillion.
Timmer further delves into the impact of Bitcoin halvings on its price. Historically, halvings have had a substantial effect on Bitcoin’s value. However, Timmer raises the hypothesis that diminishing returns may occur in the future as the incremental supply of new Bitcoin decreases.
By comparing the outstanding supply and incremental supply of Bitcoin with those of gold, Timmer demonstrates that the diminishing impact of the halvings is likely to be more pronounced in the future.
As the number of coins available for mining dwindles, the influence of each subsequent halving event on Bitcoin’s price may diminish. This insight prompts Timmer to explore alternative ways to project Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
BTC’s Price Projections
To account for the diminishing impact of halvings, Timmer introduces the concept of a modified Stock To Flow (S2F) curve. This curve is derived by overlaying an asymptotic supply curve, representing the percentage of coins mined relative to the final supply cap, onto the original S2F curve.
Timmer proposes using a regression formula incorporating PlanB’s original S2F curve and the asymptotic supply curve as independent variables. This modified S2F curve aligns more closely with the supply dynamics of gold, reflecting a scenario in which Bitcoin’s scarcity advantage continues, but its impact on price gradually diminishes over time.
Using the modified S2F model and considering the supply characteristics of gold, Timmer generates hypothetical price projections for Bitcoin that place the cryptocurrency at approximately 0,000 by the end of 2024.
According to Timmer, if Bitcoin were to capture a quarter of the monetary gold market, it would represent a remarkable shift in the global distribution of wealth, which would gradually drive up the cryptocurrency’s price over the coming years.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin ETFs Experience Day 12 Reversal, GBTC Selling Slows, Fidelity And Blackrock Garner $400 Million
Bitcoin has witnessed a positive turn of events as it reclaimed the ,000 mark on Tuesday, thanks to a significant reduction in selling pressure from asset manager Grayscale. The reversal in Bitcoin ETFs during day 12 of trading has seen more inflows than outflows. Fidelity and Blackrock recorded a combined 0 million across their Bitcoin ETFs under the ticker names FBTC and IBIT, respectively.
Bitcoin ETFs Record Third-Largest Money Day
According to market expert James Mullarney, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has experienced a noticeable reduction in selling pressure, as reflected by the slowing down of GBTC selling.
Day 12 of trading showed a substantial inflow compared to outflow, marking the third-largest money day ever in net money flow, bringing in 6 million.
Mullarney further states that adding new Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to a net positive of billion in ETFs, with an estimated 25,000 Bitcoin added to the market. The new Bitcoin ETFs now hold a total of 150,000 BTC in aggregate.
Miners Sell Most Coins Since May 2023
Despite these positive developments with Bitcoin ETFs, there is an ongoing increase in selling pressure from miners. A recent CryptoQuant report reveals that miners have sold the most coins since May 2023.
The flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges reached its highest value since May 16, 2023, with over 4,000 Bitcoin amounting to approximately 3 million in selling pressure.
Although miners have increased their selling activity, CryptoQuant asserts that the market has absorbed this pressure “calmly”. It is important to note that the reserves in mining portfolios have remained at the same level since the beginning of January.
CryptoQuant highlights that it is crucial to consider that these actions do not necessarily indicate a “dump” by miners. The firm concluded:
It is true that there were several interactions with exchanges during this period, some quite significant, but this does not correspond to a “dump” on the part of these entities. Furthermore, it is necessary to be careful when reading messages like “miners are dumping coins”, this analyzes may not take into account the return of these coins to miners’ wallets.
New All-Time High For Bitcoin After November?
Renowned crypto analyst, CryptoCon, cautions against the belief that “this time is different” for Bitcoin, highlighting the recurring nature of its market cycles. With three completed cycles and a fourth underway, CryptoCon emphasizes that historical patterns, including the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, have consistently influenced Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
CryptoCon emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price movements have followed distinct cycles, and he warns against the notion that each cycle will deviate significantly from the preceding ones.
Despite the anticipation surrounding the launch of ETFs, historical evidence suggests that they have coincided with local price highs rather than instant new all-time highs.
CryptoCon argues that the repeated occurrence of such patterns should serve as a reminder that “this time is different” often proves to be an illusory belief.
According to CryptoCon’s analysis, a period of sideways movement is expected to commence soon after the completion of the ongoing correction, which saw BTC retrace to the ,500 level on Tuesday, January 23.
This phase is predicted to last approximately four months, culminating in a second early price peak in June 2024, according to Crypto Con.
Following this, the analyst foresees the possibility of new all-time highs occurring after November 28th, 2024. However, it is crucial to note that the cycle’s peak will occur within approximately 21 days from this date, around November 28th, 2025.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com