Fidelity Investments’ Director of Global Macro sees bitcoin as “exponential gold” and “an aspiring player on the store of value team.” According to his analysis, bitcoin’s price is “driven primarily by the growth in its network, which is in turn driven by bitcoin’s unique scarcity feature, as well as the monetary and fiscal policy cycle, […]
Bitcoin News
Expert Says Bitcoin Price Has Topped And Is In Exponential Decay, Why This Is Not A Bad Thing
Crypto expert Peter Brandt has boldly claimed that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may already be in. He made this conclusion based on his “exponential decay” thesis, which he noted may actually be good for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Why Bitcoin’s Price Has Topped
Brandt explained that historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price has topped. He further alluded to an “exponential decay,” which he noted could be used to describe Bitcoin. Brandt’s exponential decay thesis is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has significantly reduced in every subsequent bull cycle.
For context, Bitcoin, according to the crypto expert, recorded a 122x increase from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, that was only 21.3% of Bitcoin’s price gain in the previous cycle (between 2011 and 2013).
Source: X
Brandt further noted that the same thing happened between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase from its market low to market high, Bitcoin only recorded 18% of the price increase it saw in the previous cycle. Having laid this premise, the crypto expert concluded that this market cycle shouldn’t be any different as Bitcoin will likely see about 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle.
Taking ,473 as the market low for this cycle, he noted that 20% of the previous cycle’s gain would mean that the market high for this cycle was supposed to be ,723, a price level that Bitcoin already hit on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of ,750.
Meanwhile, the crypto expert acknowledged that Bitcoin historically records its most price gains after the Bitcoin halving, which just recently occurred. However, he added that the crypto community has to deal with the fact of the exponential decay, which has made him believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle.”
Why The Exponential Decay Might Be Bullish For Bitcoin
Brandt mentioned that Bitcoin would likely drop to the mid ,000 or its 2021 lows if it has indeed topped. He, however, added that this decline could be the “most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view.”
Related Reading: Brace For Price Impact: Dogecoin Whales Move Massive 456 Million DOGE To Exchanges
From a “classical charting point of view,” the crypto expert hinted that Bitcoin was still primed for major parabolic moves to the upside, even though it doesn’t happen now.
He also shared an example of what Bitcoin’s chart could look like when this move happens with the crypto token rallying above 0,000. Brandt also alluded to Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as an example of what Bitcoin’s price action could look like soon enough. Interestingly, he recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon be “King over Gold.”
Bitcoin: ‘Stink Ball’ or ‘Exponential Gold’? Munger and Fidelity Director at Odds on BTC — Week in Review
Berkshire Hathaway billionaire Charlie Munger may think Bitcoin is a “stink ball,” but director of global macro at financial giant Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, says the asset is “exponential gold.” Find out why, just below, in the latest Bitcoin.com News Week in Review.
Berkshire Vice Chair Charlie Munger Compares Bitcoin to a ‘Stink Ball’ Among Traditional Currencies
Warren Buffett’s right-hand man and the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, says he is concerned when the price of bitcoin rises. The 99-year-old compared the cryptocurrency to a “stink ball” among traditional currencies. “When you start creating an artificial currency, you’re throwing your stink ball into a recipe that’s been around for a long time, that’s worked very well for a lot of people,” the executive said.
Financial Giant Fidelity’s Director Sees Bitcoin as ‘Exponential Gold’
Financial services giant Fidelity’s director of global macro says bitcoin is “exponential gold.” He explained that gold is “too deflationary and clunky to be used as a medium of exchange,” noting that “investors own it primarily as a store of value — and one of the many reasons bitcoin is often compared to gold.”
Dubai Financial Authority Approves XRP as ‘Recognized Crypto Token’
Dubai’s financial regulator, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, has approved XRP as a recognized crypto token for use within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), a special economic zone. “Licensed virtual asset firms within the DIFC will now be able to incorporate XRP into their virtual asset services,” Ripple explained, adding that institutions located in the zone can now utilize XRP “to accelerate faster, more efficient global value exchange.”
Robert Kiyosaki Breaks Down Rich Dad’s First Lesson — Says Bitcoin Provides ‘Lifelong Financial Security and Freedom’
Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has broken down Rich Dad’s lesson number one. Explaining in simple terms why the rich become richer, the renowned author said: “They understand the importance of preserving tangible assets, such as gold, silver, and bitcoin, which offer lifelong financial security and freedom.”
What do you think? Is bitcoin a “stink ball,” “exponential gold,” or something else entirely? Be sure to let us know your thoughts, and your favorite crypto in the comments section below.
Financial Giant Fidelity’s Director Sees Bitcoin as ‘Exponential Gold’
Financial services giant Fidelity’s director of global macro says bitcoin is “exponential gold.” He explained that gold is “too deflationary and clunky to be used as a medium of exchange,” noting that “investors own it primarily as a store of value — and one of the many reasons bitcoin is often compared to gold.”
Fidelity’s Director Thinks of Bitcoin as ‘Exponential Gold’
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at financial services giant Fidelity, shared his bitcoin outlook in a series of posts on social media platform X this week. He wrote on Wednesday:
In my view, bitcoin is a commodity currency that aspires to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary debasement. I think of it as exponential gold.
“Historically, during structural regimes in which inflation runs hot, real rates are negative, and/or money supply growth is excessive, gold tends to shine and gain market share relative to GDP. Notable examples: the 1970s and 2000s,” Timmer detailed.
While noting that “Gold is money,” he argued:
It’s too deflationary and clunky to be used as a medium of exchange. Hence, investors own it primarily as a store of value – and one of the many reasons bitcoin is often compared to gold.
On Friday, the Fidelity director further discussed bitcoin on X. “Based on monthly data as of September, bitcoin still has a positive correlation to equities, but less so than many other assets,” he said. “Where might bitcoin sit in a 60/40 portfolio? In my view, it should sit squarely in the alts bucket. However, while bitcoin’s correlation is becoming less positive against the S&P 500, it is not negatively correlated against much else.”
Timmer additionally stated that BTC is “negatively correlated to the U.S. dollar and T-bills.” He continued: “Surprisingly, it is uncorrelated against gold. That’s bad because it puts a question mark behind the thesis that bitcoin is playing for the same team as gold. But it’s positive because we want as many of the alts to be uncorrelated against both the 60/40 index and against other alts.” The executive concluded: “If bitcoin and gold play on the same team but in different games, then that’s not too bad.”
What do you think about Fidelity’s director of global macro’s statements about bitcoin and gold? Let us know in the comments section below.
Why This Fidelity Investments Director Believes Bitcoin Is ‘Exponential Gold’
The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, recently provided insights into the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and went as far as labeling the crypto token as “exponential gold.”
A Glance At Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
In a post released on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption curve potentially allow it to be a “high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans,” likely alluding to the fact that the token’s features make it a great option to hedge against inflation. That is why he sees the token as “exponential gold.”
He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape,” which places it in good company with other major innovations that went through such an adoption journey. One of them is mobile phones, as Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s adoption curve in 2020 resembled that of mobile phones in the ‘80s and ‘90s.
Bitcoin, however, seems to have moved to another stage in the adoption curve, as Timmer stated that the “real-rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022.” He further suggested that Bitcoin has moved past the stage of a rapid rise as its adoption curve has flattened out. With this, Timmer believes that it now shares similarities with the adoption curve of the internet in the 2000s as the crypto token “has not made much progress since 2021.”
Bitcoin Volatility: Good Or Bad?
In a subsequent post, Timmer put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective as he compared it with other asset classes. First, he shared a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic era ranging from 2020 to this year. The SPX seemed to provide the best risk-reward with close to 24% return.
Timmer then went on to share another chart, which included Bitcoin this time around. The foremost cryptocurrency notably stood out from the rest, as he mentioned that Bitcoin was “in a different universe,” with a 58% return.
Bitcoin’s high volatility seems to have contributed to such returns in no small way, as Timmer mentioned that the crypto token’s huge drawdowns also come with large gains. To drive home his point, he shared another chart that showed drawdowns and rallies, which various asset classes have experienced from their 2-year high and low, respectively.
The chart showed that Bitcoin experienced a 54% drawdown from its two-year high but is also up by 84% from its low in the same period.
This is more impressive when one considers how other asset classes have fared in the same period as Timmer stated that Government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward math.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Burn Rate Sees Exponential 627% Jump
Shiba Inu has seen an impressive recovery in its burn rate after recording a slow start to the week. The recent acceleration could suggest that investors are once again rousing and choosing to actively contribute to the reduction of supply which could lead to an increase in price.
Shiba Inu Burn Rate Rises 627%
Thursday, September 21, has proven to be one of the best weeks for the meme coin in terms of its burn rate. According to Shiba Inu burn tracking website Shibburn, the cryptocurrency saw a 6277% jump in its burn rate in the space of 24 hours.
This acceleration in the burn rate has seen more than 194 million tokens incinerated in the one-day period across multiple transactions. A number of these transactions carried reasonable amounts of tokens in the millions. However, one transaction stands out as the major reason behind the spike in burn rate.
A single transaction was seen carrying over 137 million tokens to the burn addresses. This transaction alone was enough to match the previous day’s figures, and with more contributions from the community, the total tokens burned in the last 24 hours is closing in on 200 million.
The burn rate is also up 31.62% in the last week as well. Shibbrun reports that more than 653 million tokens have been burned in this seven-day period. As of the time of writing, there are 410,659,642,147,703 SHIB tokens sitting in the burn address.
HOURLY SHIB UPDATE$SHIB Price: .00000727 (1hr -0.01% ▼ | 24hr -0.37% ▼ )
Market Cap: ,282,495,643 (-0.34% ▼)
Total Supply: 589,340,357,852,296TOKENS BURNT
Past 24Hrs: 194,116,333 (627.43% ▲)
Past 7 Days: 653,032,836 (39.5% ▲)— Shibburn (@shibburn) September 22, 2023
Shibarium Takes Center Stage
The recovery in burn rate could be attributed to the rising interest in the Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain Shibarium. Launched less than a month ago, the blockchain has already marked some impressive milestones since then.
One of the major milestones is the fact that the total transactions on the network have already crossed the 3 million mark. Additionally, wallet addresses on the blockchain crossed 1.25 million with daily transactions sitting above 42,000.
The network has, so far, produced more than 760 blocks while gas fees remain low at 1.55 Gwei. The network also saw a spike in new verified contracts earlier in the week, suggesting that more developers are choosing to build on the network.
Shiba Inu lead marketer Lucie also took to X (formerly Twitter) to urge investors to use decentralized exchanges (DEXes) on the network instead of centralized exchanges. According to her, doing so would help accelerate the SHIB burn since the burns are set per transaction. So a rise in usage and transactions would translate to more tokens being burned.
Former SEC Official Anticipates Exponential Shifts in Crypto Regulations After Election Day
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s former head of internet enforcement has outlined potential changes in the U.S. and at the SEC that could have positive impacts on the crypto industry, including the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The changes could include a Republican president being elected, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler resigning, and “crypto mom” Hester Peirce being appointed as the acting SEC Chair.
Possible Changes at SEC That Could Benefit Crypto Industry
Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) official John Reed Stark highlighted potential changes that could benefit the crypto industry, including the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), in a lengthy tweet on Sunday. Stark is currently president of cybersecurity firm John Reed Stark Consulting. He founded and served as chief of the SEC Office of Internet Enforcement for 11 years. He was also an SEC enforcement attorney for 15 years.
A number of companies in the U.S. are seeking SEC approval to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, including Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager. However, the SEC has not approved any spot crypto ETFs so far. Stark opined:
My take is that the current SEC will NOT approve a bitcoin spot ETF application for a range of compelling reasons.
The former SEC official referenced Better Markets, a non-partisan independent nonprofit organization advocating for economic security, which outlined on Aug. 9 why the SEC should reject spot bitcoin ETF filings.
However, Stark believes that the SEC could undergo changes that benefit the crypto industry if a Republican is elected president of the United States in 2024. The 2024 U.S. elections are scheduled to be held on Nov. 5. He stated:
The crypto-regulatory tides could shift exponentially after Election Day.
He explained that under a Republican U.S. president, the SEC’s crypto-enforcement efforts would likely “decrease significantly.” He clarified that this could involve focusing more on fraud cases, “shifting efforts away from charging pure registration violations (such as the failure of a crypto-trading platform to register as an exchange, broker-dealer and clearing firm).” In addition, Stark expects the new SEC to “become far more receptive to approving a bitcoin spot ETF and far more likely to take other significant crypto-friendly regulatory actions.”
The former SEC enforcement official proceeded to explain that when a new U.S. president is elected, the SEC chairman typically resigns and the new chairman position is usually confirmed and filled in a span of three to four months after Inauguration Day. He continued:
Hence, should a Republican get elected President, Chair Gensler would likely resign and the senior Republican appointed SEC Commissioner (in this case famed ‘crypto-mom’ Hester Peirce) would possibly become acting Chair.
Stark noted that if Peirce “becomes acting Chair of the SEC, given her lengthy track record of dissent and opposition to most crypto-related SEC actions, the world should expect that most U.S. SEC crypto-related enforcement and most crypto-related SEC disruption would grind to a screeching halt.”
Last week, Stark warned that the crypto regulatory onslaught will never end under the current SEC.
What do you think about the statements by former SEC official John Reed Stark? Let us know in the comments section below.
Surge in Ordinal Inscriptions Ignites Exponential Growth in BRC20 Token Economy
Over the past four days, there has been a surge in Ordinal inscriptions, and as a result, the BRC20 token economy has experienced significant growth with over 10,000 additional coins. The current value of the BRC20 token economy now stands at 7.75 million, comprising a total of 24,677 distinct tokens.
Bitcoin Users Issued More Than 10,000 New BRC20 Tokens In a Permissionless Fashion in 4 Days
Bitcoin is embracing functionalities that were previously synonymous with the Ethereum blockchain, such as the innovation of new tokens and the generation of non-fungible token assets. As the clock struck 10:43 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 16, the BRC20 token economy achieved an impressive valuation of 7.75 million.
Archived records indicate that the collective market capitalization of its 24,677 distinct digital tokens has soared 16.56%, surpassing the 7 million mark observed just four days earlier.
As of now, the largest market valuation in the BRC20 token realm is commanded by the ordi (ORDI) token, which stands at 2 million. Each ORDI is currently being traded at .31, although it may not hold the title of the highest-valued coin per unit.
The MEME token, valued at .68 per coin, and the OSHI token, valued at 7.50 per unit, surpass ORDI in individual worth. However, both MEME and OSHI have considerably smaller supplies compared to the abundance of ORDI (21M), making them more scarce.
Parallel Surges: BRC20 Transactions and Bitcoin’s Backlog Converge
In the world of BRC20 tokens, PUNK token boasts a value of 3 per coin, and the token called GOLD holds a trading price of .82 per unit. Over the last 24 hours, a total of 6,705,219 in BRC20 trade volume has been generated, with ORDI trades accounting for 7.88 million of that sum.
The remaining BRC20 token markets observe trade volumes of 0,485 or even less during the same time frame. According to data from Dune Analytics, 5,906,735 BRC20 transactions have been successfully processed onchain.
Just like the spike in Ordinal inscriptions witnessed on May 7, a parallel surge in transaction fees for deploying, minting, and transferring BRC20s coincided with the Bitcoin network’s backlog of unconfirmed transactions. The frenzied BRC20 activity occurred on May 7 and 8, 2023.
Interestingly, BRC20s face a similar controversy, stemming from the fact that they emerge from the same technological foundations. Bitcoin maximalists vehemently oppose both Ordinal inscriptions and BRC20s, wishing to confine Bitcoin’s blockchain to solely financial transactions. However, the wider market seems to embrace the trend, demanding its continuation and growth.
What are your thoughts on the evolving landscape of BRC20 tokens and their impact on the wider cryptocurrency market? Let us know your insights and opinions in the comments section below.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): How To Ride Massive Trends
Trading the crypto market can be tough and requires more than buying and selling crypto assets; if you aim to become a successful investor and trader in this field, this requires skills, patience, and psychology to stay ahead of the game. Investors and traders are always looking for ways to stay profitable in crypto by adopting different trading strategies, using indicators, oscillators, and chart patterns to have an edge and remain profitable in a bullish and bearish market. Studies have shown that the crypto market ranges by over 70%, while the remaining percentage allows traders to spot trending opportunities. Let us discuss the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), one of the widely used indicators by traders and investors to remain profitable and ride massive trends in the crypto market.
What Is Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Daily BTC Price Chart Maintaining A Downtrend Under 50 and 200 EMA | Source: BTCUSD On Tradingview.com
The Exponential Moving Average is a type of Moving Average tool employed in the technical analysis of crypto assets by many traders and investors to spot potential buying and selling areas and identify an asset’s current trend.
There are two common Moving Averages: the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Most traders prefer using EMA because it filters the price actions and volatility that come with trading in the crypto market and gives traders a more realistic value than the SMA by placing more weight on recent price data.
Trading with EMA gives a trader more opportunities. It helps you to identify dynamic support and resistance, enabling you as a trader to enter and exit trades when the trend reverses against your trade.
As a trader, you do not need to start learning the formulas and how the Exponential Moving Average was achieved, all you need to do is make use of it on tradingview.com while analyzing your crypto assets.
How To Use EMA And Ride Massive Trends
The commonly used Exponential Moving Averages are the 50 and 200-day EMA for long-term traders to spot trends and ride early trends based on the high timeframes. For short-term trading, traders use 8 and 20-day EMA to spot trends, entries, exits, and potential price reversals.
Example Of 50 And 200-Day EMA
Daily BTC Price Chart Maintaining A Downtrend Under 50 and 200 EMA | Source: BTCUSD On Tradingview.com
From the chart above, the price of Bitcoin/United State Dollars (BTCUSD) trades below the 50 and 200 EMA, indicating a downtrend price movement with the 50 and 200-day EMA acting as resistances for the price of Bitcoin (BTC), preventing the price from going higher. The 50 EMA responds faster to a price change, so a break and close above the 50 and 200 EMA indicates a potential change in the trend from bearish to bullish.
Example Of 8 And 20-Day Exponential Moving Average
BTC Price Chart For 8 And 20-Day EMA | Source: BTCUSD On Tradingview.com
The 8 and 20-day Exponential Moving Average is used for short-term trades and can be used to spot short changes in trends. The 8-day EMA responds faster to change; as such, a crossover from below could mean a potential change in price from a downtrend to an uptrend. A close of prices above the 8 and 20 EMA could mean a potential change in price from bearish to bullish.
For better confirmation, it would be ideal to trade this indicator with other trading strategies and chart patterns like the descending triangle from the Image above for better trading confirmation and profitability.
Featured Image From Investopedia, Charts From Tradingview
NewsBTC
“Exponential Decay” Of The Dollar To Benefit Bitcoin Long-Term
Bitcoin is now reeling after a rejection prevented further highs around the time Coinbase Global went live on the Nasdaq. The same stock market has also been booming alongside crypto – both markets gone parabolic against a common denominator: the dollar.
The greenback’s “exponential decay” is poised to continue, further benefiting crypto and equities. However, some short term abatement of hyperinflation could bring pause to the bull market.
When nearly every stock or crypto chart denominated in the same asset USD $ is parabolic, you’re looking at an exponential decay of the denominator. In the short term, there is a risk that they crash the market in order to abate some of the effects of the ongoing hyperinflation.
— Jess Martini 🍸 (@btcty) April 20, 2021
USD Inflation Drop Goes Parabolic Against Bitcoin, Stock Market
Flash back to around 14 months ago, before Black Thursday rocked finance and to when the pandemic first began. The stock market and cryptocurrencies were decimated by the panic that ensued.
But as a result of governments flooding the money supply with more money than ever before, both markets went ballistic. A bull market broke out in both stocks and cryptocurrencies, bringing all major indices to new all-times, and Bitcoin breaking all previous records.
Related Reading | Bitcoin, Coinbase Crypto Euphoria Is Blind To Potential Dollar Reversal
The stock market and crypto are doing well for completely different economic factors and are such different asset classes, the real reason for the sudden parity is due to the dollar.
Crypto and the stock market have both gone parabolic against the dollar | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Exponential Decay To Continue, According To Dollar Currency Index
The dollar is in trouble – there’s no doubt about it. It’s value against other top world currencies according to the DXY has fallen. Against Bitcoin and stocks, the drop has gone parabolic.
Zooming out on the DXY could suggest that the worst is yet to come for the greenback. A massive symmetrical triangle has formed, similar in shape as the one Bitcoin broke upward from to start the bull market.
If the above pattern confirms, the dollar's fall hasn't even started | Source: TVC-DXY on TradingView.com
Except before Bitcoin consolidated, the previous trend was up. In the dollar, the prevailing trend has been down, and that’s where things could still be headed if “exponential decay” continues as expected.
A fall of such magnitude as the measure rule would project, could take the top currency in the world down to historic lows. And with USD as the base currency at which all other assets are measured, price action could get a little wild.
Related Reading | Potential Island Reversal Leaves Bitcoin Bulls Stranded
If that happens, even if somehow a strategy rolls out to prevent against short-term inflation and the dollar gets some air, fiat is dying a fast death at the hands of Bitcoin.
Technical factors in Bitcoin and stocks also point to correction enough to where the dollar gets some immediate relief. But after that, it is right back to destruction of the global reserve currency.
Featured image from Pixabay, Charts from TradingView.com