As the Bitcoin network nears its fourth halving event, numerous market watchers and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are curious about whether the price will experience a temporary decline before the halving occurs. Historically, bitcoin’s value has surged six to seven months ahead of halvings, yet there has consistently been a significant decrease before the subsequent increase that […]
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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analyst Predicts $100,000 Peak Before Halving Event
Crypto analyst Adam Back believes there is a chance Bitcoin (BTC) could hit the 0,000 price mark ahead of the halving event in April. This prediction comes as Bitcoin continues its recovery from a rather bearish January. Data from the price tracking site, CoinMarketCap, reveals that BTC’s price gained by 11.02% in the last week, moving into the ,000 zone.
Dual Bull Cycle? Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Bull Run Pre-Halving
In a post on X on February 10, Adam Back shared a Bitcoin price forecast in which he predicted the digital asset to attain a new all-time high (ATH) price before the much-anticipated halving event on April 12, 2023. Back based his projections on Bitcoin’s historical price data stating that just like on Friday, BTC crossed the ,000 mark on October 1, 2021, in what would be a 41-day journey to its current ATH of ,045.
1st oct 2021 #bitcoin crossed k like yesterday, then on it’s way to the k ATH. that run-up took 41 days. there are 70 days to the halving. just another data point for what it looks like, and how we may yet get a new ATH or even 0k before the halvening. pic.twitter.com/jmtQIHcenR
— Adam Back (@adam3us) February 10, 2024
The analyst explained that he anticipates that BTC will maintain its present upward trajectory, embarking on a bull run to possibly notch a new ATH within the next 70 days leading up to the Bitcoin halving event. Back’s price prediction comes across as somewhat unique as, historically, the Bitcoin bull run usually occurs months after the halving event.
However, the crypto analyst explains in subsequent responses to certain X users that he anticipates the recent launch of the Bitcoin spot ETFs to induce a bull run before the halving event. Following a rather rocky launch, the Bitcoin spot ETF market appears to have finally found its expected rhythm, with consistent positive net inflows recorded throughout last week.
Notably, on Friday, the budding ETF market experienced a total net inflow of 1.5 million, second only to the 5.3 million recorded on the first trading session on January 11. In addition, Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see a consistent decline in outflows recording a new low of .8 million.
Adam Back predicts that a consistent development of the Bitcoin spot ETF market over the next few weeks could trigger a bull run pre-halving, causing the asset to potentially reach the 0,000 price mark. In addition, the analyst supports Bitcoin still to repeat its bull run months after the halving event, painting a dual bull cycle.
BTC Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at ,716, reflecting a 0.88% gain in its price over the last day. However, the token’s daily trading volume is down by a staggering 59.68% and is valued at .92 billion. Meanwhile, BTC continues to dominate the crypto market with the largest asset market cap of 6.17 billion.
BTC trading at ,668 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
NewsBTC
Bitcoin Halving Prep: Analyst Outlines Key Points Ahead Of Event
Anticipations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event are high in the cryptocurrency community, with hopes of BTC witnessing a massive rally post-event. Nonetheless, several key factors should be considered prior to the halving.
Important Considerations Ahead Of The Impending Bitcoin Halving
Ali Martinez, a famous cryptocurrency analyst has revealed the major key points investors need to watch out for ahead of Bitcoin halving. The analyst shared his opinions on the subject through the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
In the X post, Martinez pointed out just four important factors to consider as the event drew near. The upcoming halving, expected to take place by April this year, will be the fourth time it has been done.
One of the first and key areas highlighted by Martinez to spot is the post-Bitcoin halving corrections. Martinez stated that within a month following the 2020 and 2026 halvings, BTC saw substantial corrections, which preceded this price surge.
He explained that within a month after the 2016 event, the price of Bitcoin fell by 30%. He also said a similar scenario played out in the 2020 halving, which saw price plummet about 7%.
The Bitcoin halving has always been viewed as a bullish development that leads to a significant rise in the price of BTC. This is primarily due to the fact that as demand increases, the quantity of fresh BTC coming into the market declines.
For the second key point to look out for, Martinez has underscored massive post-halving rallies. According to him, there is typically a sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin after the post-halving drop.
In particular, the expert asserted that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of Bitcoin surged by 11,000%, 2,850%, and 700%, respectively. Due to this, many experts anticipate that BTC’s price will reach a new all-time high after the event is concluded.
Significant Change In The Market
Martinez’s third crucial aspect to consider is the bull market durations. As is widely known, every previous halving event often ushers in a bull market.
He then shared a calculative time of how long the market rallied during all the previous halving. Martinez stated that the 2012, 2016, and 2020 bull market lasted for 365 days, 518 days, and 549 days, respectively.
Meanwhile, the last part pointed out by the expert is the next market top. He believes that Bitcoin will get to a new peak by April or October 2025. Martinez anticipates this to take place if only the upcoming event follows historical patterns. So, he has urged the crypto community to be vigilant and observe these patterns.
As of now, BTC is trading a little above ,000, showing a decrease of almost 2% in the past 24 hours. Its trading volume has increased by 14% today, while its market cap is down by 1.90%.
Glassnode Co-Founder Warns: Bitcoin’s Surge Could Trigger A $1 Billion Liquidation Event – Here’s Why
A notable perspective recently came from the Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, Negentropic on X, who recently shared insights into Bitcoin price dynamics. Notably, the analysts highlighted liquidity as a crucial factor for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Bitcoin Market On The Brink Of Spike In Volatility
Negentropic revealed that BTC’s recent ascent above ,200 has created a significant liquidity pool for long positions, marked by a “neutral impulse” in the market.
This trend indicates that Bitcoin aims to bridge the liquidity gap above the ,000 mark, which hints at potential volatility and significant market changes.
So far, about 9 million in liquidations have taken place, leading Negentropic to predict that continuing the bullish momentum could trigger liquidations worth billion in short positions.
“Liquidity is KEY.”
1. Bitcoin Analysis: Bitcoin surged to .2k, providing liquidity for long positions, with a neutral impulse.
2. Liquidity Gap: The price is moving to fill the liquidity gap above k, indicating potential volatility. Approximately 9 million in… pic.twitter.com/wStqXqmLRN
— 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) January 29, 2024
This scenario could catalyze a market uplift through a “short squeeze,” a rapid price increase forcing short sellers to exit their positions. Such market movements often result in dramatic shifts, providing a fertile ground for Bitcoin’s growth.
Meanwhile, in a post uploaded last week, Negentropic linked the burgeoning liquidity in the crypto market to China’s efforts to stabilize its markets by injecting substantial liquidity. According to the Glassnode co-founder, this development could serve as a crucial catalyst for crypto like Bitcoin and equity markets as we progress into the first half of 2024.
The Liquidity surge begins.
China will try to prop up its markets by massive liquidity. It is very to be the catalyst that will make crypto and equity markets soar into the first part of 2024
@HenrikZeberg https://t.co/LBXBRh6D35
— 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) January 23, 2024
This perspective aligns with the broader market recovery, as Bitcoin shows signs of resurgence following reduced selling pressure, particularly from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Bitcoin trades for ,166, up 6% in the past week. However, despite this uptick, the asset’s daily trading volume remains subdued, down from billion last Monday to billion today, indicating a cautious market sentiment.
BTC Bullish Signals Strengthen
Amid these market developments, bullish forecasts continue to emerge. Crypto analyst Jelle recently suggested that with Bitcoin reclaiming the ,000 level, it might be “time to focus on longs once again.”
#Bitcoin made stellar progress over the weekend, reclaiming ,000 and making it back into the range.
Time to focus on longs once again. Bull market stays on! pic.twitter.com/T7fgmsVIGs
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) January 29, 2024
Echoing this sentiment, Michael van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst and pundit, expressed optimism in his latest YouTube video. He argued that the recent price correction in Bitcoin might have reached its conclusion.
Further supporting the bullish sentiment, Ali’s chart analysis reveals an increase in large Bitcoin holders. An additional 46 entities now possess 1,000 BTC or more, a 3% rise in just two weeks.
Even amidst this market correction, #Bitcoin whales are not slowing down – they’re accumulating more $BTC!
In fact, there’s been a notable increase in major players: 46 new entities now hold 1,000 #BTC or more, marking a 3% increase in just two weeks. pic.twitter.com/GVNInKW7A2
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 24, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Market Strategist Gareth Soloway Eyes $15K Bitcoin in Event of Stock Market Slide
In a recent interview with Gareth Soloway, the chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com, Soloway suggested that bitcoin might revisit the K level should a significant stock market sell-off occur.
Soloway Predicts Potential Bitcoin Dip to K
Two days ago, in a freshly released Youtube video, Gareth Soloway of verifiedinvesting.com engaged in a new interview with Michelle Makori, Kitco News’ lead anchor and editor-in-chief, delving into bitcoin’s latest trends and its potential future trajectory. Soloway shared insights on his approach to analyzing various data sets for forecasting future trends and drawing conclusions. He highlighted the alignment of the 2017 and 2021 bitcoin bull markets with significant events: the introduction of regulated bitcoin futures in 2017 and the Coinbase initial public offering (IPO) in 2021.
Soloway said:
These big news stories create so much hype and the top in bitcoin.
For Soloway, the current bitcoin price level and its recent downturn following specific developments seem logical. He spoke about the outflows from GBTC, noting that “there was a lot of smart money that bought ahead of this news.”
The substantial discount at which GBTC was trading, he added, was “kind of an extra bonus to them as well.” The market strategist said his greater concern is a bearish view on BTC that could occur if we see a peak in the S&P market or a de-risking occurrence in the broader markets.
“I do worry that bitcoin could head back down,” Soloway told Makori. “If we saw a 50% drop in the stock market, I do see bitcoin retesting that ,000 level,” he added.
Soloway’s remarks coincided with Deutsche Bank releasing a survey involving over 2,000 respondents, where a third anticipated BTC’s value falling below K. Additionally, 15% of participants from the Deutsche Bank survey forecasted BTC prices ranging from K to K by the end of 2024. Concurrently, Arthur Hayes, the ex-boss of Bitmex, predicts BTC could hit lows of K to K. Soloway is closely monitoring these developments and mentioned that the upcoming three-plus weeks are critical to observe.
Despite these bleak projections, in the long term, Soloway remains optimistic about bitcoin, expressing his intention to increase his BTC holdings if prices continue to decline. Previously, in his conversation with Makori in late October, he accurately predicted the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. It remains to be seen if his predictions regarding an equities sell-off and BTC potentially reaching the K mark this year will materialize. As of Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024, BTC is maintaining its position above K, currently undergoing a phase of consolidation.
What do you think about Gareth Soloway’s bitcoin prediction? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Crypto CEO Bets Big: ‘Perfect Storm’ Event To Slingshot Bitcoin To $1 Million
Crypto aficionados should have more reasons now to be upbeat. Samson Mow, prominent figurehead and former CSO at Blockstream, has ignited the Bitcoin landscape with a new, audacious prediction for the king of digital currencies.
He envisions a colossal price surge, aptly named the “Omega Candle,” culminating in a staggering million per coin milestone. This prophecy arrives alongside the recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, sending ripples of excitement through the market.
OMEGA IS COMING. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/CrJRkmFCym
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) January 11, 2024
Crypto: The ‘Perfect Storm’ To Million
Mow paints a picture of a “perfect storm” brewing, one fueled by a potent cocktail of bullish catalysts. The approval of spot ETFs by the SEC stands as the centerpiece, paving the way for institutional investors to finally enter the Bitcoin arena with ease.
This, Mow believes, could trigger a wave of advertising campaigns targeting traditional financial markets, drawing even more capital towards the digital gold.
Beyond the immediate impact of ETFs, Mow anticipates a ripple effect across the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. He cites potential nation-state adoption, similar to El Salvador’s pioneering move, as another potential engine for growth.
#Bitcoin ETFs are approved & trading begins soon in the perfect storm.
ETF ad campaigns
Nation-state adoption
The Halving
Veblen Effect
118x Multiplier
Supply Shock
Recursive Demand Shock
Low $BTC supply on exchanges
Max Pain Theory
Renewed QE
FASBOmega Candles await
pic.twitter.com/8YsuW1OtS7
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) January 11, 2024
Additionally, the upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving in April, which reduces the block reward for miners by half, is expected to further tighten supply and exacerbate any pre-existing demand surge.
This confluence of forces, Mow argues, could culminate in the legendary Omega Candle – a dramatic vertical surge represented by a single, elongated green candlestick on price charts. While the term lacks a precise technical definition, it vividly portrays the magnitude of the predicted rise.
Adding fuel to the fire is prominent Bitcoin supporter Max Keiser. He predicts a mass exodus from traditional gold ETFs towards Bitcoin ETFs, lured by the digital asset’s superior performance and faster growth potential.
On Fast Horses & Omega Candles
“Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race,” Keiser proclaims, echoing billionaire Paul Tudor Jones’s sentiment that Bitcoin offers a more compelling investment proposition than gold.
However, amidst the hype, skepticism remains. Mow’s million target appears fantastical to many, considering Bitcoin’s current price of around ,000.
The “Omega Candle” itself, lacking any technical basis, is more akin to a metaphor than a concrete indicator.
Additionally, some experts caution against over-exuberance, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market and the potential for unforeseen obstacles, such as regulatory roadblocks or market downturns, to derail the projected trajectory.
Ultimately, while Mow’s vision ignites the imagination of Bitcoin enthusiasts, approaching it with a healthy dose of skepticism is crucial.
The “Perfect Storm” may become a legend etched in Bitcoin’s lore, but only time will tell if it illuminates a path to million or merely flickers briefly before fading into the annals of market speculation.
Featured image from Shutterstock
Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Labels Bitcoin ETF a ‘Classic Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Event’
According to the veteran trader Peter Brandt, the current bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) hype which has seen the “average guy on the street” clamoring to get may be a signal to experienced traders that it is time to sell them what they own. Brandt also characterized the expected approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as a “classic buy the rumor, sell the news event.”
Brandt Questions Maximalists’ Commitment to the Values of Bitcoin
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) to be a “classic buy the rumor, sell the news event.” Brandt explained that this conclusion is based in part on how the so-called bitcoin maximalists are eagerly awaiting the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and his years of experience as a pro trader.
In traditional stock trading, the phrase “buy the rumor, sell the news” refers to a trading strategy that involves buying a security based on speculation about an upcoming event and selling it when the event is announced. Some observers believe the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) much-anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs qualifies as such an event.
In a post on X, Brandt discusses two observations he has made. He points out the irony of BTC maximalists being unfazed by what would amount to the government’s influence or interference with crypto markets.
“BTC maximalists have viewed one of the predominant values of BTC is that it was outside the control of government — that it was not dominated by the same financial playground that has ruined so many things. So, how is it that so many BTCoiners view the SEC and ETFs as the savior of their financial future,” Brandt quipped.
Time for Experienced Traders to Get out
Regarding the ETF hype that has propelled BTC to its highest USD value in nearly two years, Brandt likens this current scenario to a guide commonly used by “old-time” career traders like himself. According to this guide, when the average person is itching to get in, that is usually a signal to old-timers that it is time to get out.
However, the veteran trader still acknowledges that his observations about bitcoin ETFs could be wrong. Brandt, who has clashed with BTC maximalists in the past, also asks those “smarter” than him to share their thoughts on the subject.
Responding to Brandt’s post on X, social media user Abel Chris said he disagreed with the veteran trader’s assertions. According to Chris, if the SEC approves 10 or more spot Bitcoin ETFs, the direction of the crypto asset’s price will be up. He added: “We may never see bitcoin at the current prices again. The next phase will be countries adopting bitcoin to back up their currency.”
Another user, Cristian Palusci implied that Brandt’s assertions about ETFs only apply to the “average European or American kid.” For bitcoiners from other parts of the world, the ETF approvals are a non-event.
“They are only interested in the fact that thanks to #bitcoin they have access to a parallel financial system, which protects their savings from the devaluation of local fiat currencies,” Palusci said.
Do you agree with Peter Brandt’s comments about BTC maximalists? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
Injective Poised For Breakout? Unlock Event Sparks $60 INJ Price Surge Forecasts
Injective (INJ), the native token of the decentralized exchange protocol Injective Protocol, stands poised for a pivotal moment. On January 21st, a final tranche of 3.66 million INJ tokens will be unlocked, bringing the total circulating supply to a definitive 100 million.
Injective Token Unlock: Market Dynamics Shift
This marks the culmination of a phased release schedule outlined in Injective’s token distribution plan, and will see the remaining 16% of token supply flood the market.
Analysts remain divided on the potential impact of this event. Some anticipate increased selling pressure due to the sudden influx of tokens, potentially leading to a price dip. Others view the unlock as a positive catalyst for liquidity, making INJ easier to trade and potentially attracting new investors.
Final Cliff Unlocks Alert
Mark your calendars for January 21, 2024$INJ will be fully unlocked (100%)
Get ready for the massive cliff unlocks.
3.66 m tokens
132.4 m dollars
4.35% of cir. supply
Allocations:
– Advisors: .04 m
– Team: 0.37 m$INJ was… pic.twitter.com/EYCyv4hsuC— Token Unlocks (@Token_Unlocks) January 7, 2024
Regardless of the short-term price action, the full token unlock undeniably represents a turning point for Injective, marking the complete transition from initial distribution to sustained market dynamics.
It will be fascinating to observe how the community and market respond to this milestone event, and whether it paves the way for further growth and adoption of the Injective Protocol.
$INJ Bullish Flag Formation..!!
Seems lie Ready for Another Bullish Rally.#Crypto #InjectiveNetwork #INJ pic.twitter.com/OcPsNJ7laX
— Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) January 6, 2024
Some market participants, such as analyst Captain Faibik, believe that Injective may be ready for another rally in anticipation of the impending event. According to Faibik, INJ has established a bullish flag and might see a rise beyond .
Faibik examines the chart and finds two rallies that are joined by a brief period of consolidation. These might potentially lead to a continuing upswing with higher highs and lowers.
However, given that the market crashed on January 3 and that INJ price originally dropped to .55, selling pressure could be imminent. The 4-hour chart shows rising volatility, and the Bollinger Bands point to overbought circumstances following INJ’s prior surge to .28.
INJ Price Analysis
The price of INJ has been trending downwards over the past 24 hours. It is currently trading at .412, down from a high of .875 earlier in the day.
- The Bollinger Bands (BB) are also trending downwards. This suggests that volatility is decreasing, as the price is staying closer to the moving average.
- The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is negative. This indicates that bears are currently in control of the market.
- The volume is relatively low. This suggests that the recent price decline is not due to a large amount of selling pressure.
Overall, the chart suggests that INJ is in a bearish trend. However, the low volume suggests that this trend may not be sustained. It is important to note that this is just a snapshot of the market and that conditions can change quickly.
The ongoing unlocking of the token holds the promise of bolstering INJ’s social metrics, indirectly contributing to a positive influence on its price.
This is particularly crucial as increased community engagement often aligns with higher social metrics, reinforcing the token’s popularity. The sustained high Social Dominance of INJ signifies robust community support, a vital factor in navigating the unpredictable cryptocurrency market.
Simultaneously, the improvement in INJ’s Weighted Sentiment indicates a prevailing bullish sentiment within the market. This positive outlook among investors sets the stage for heightened trading activity, potentially triggering an uptrend in the token’s valuation.
Both Social Dominance and Weighted Sentiment serve as valuable indicators, providing insights into the token’s current state and the prevailing market sentiment.
Featured image from Shutterstock
Experts Weigh in on Bitcoin ETF Approval As Sell-the-News Event
As the SEC’s decision on bitcoin ETFs looms, market participants prepare for market impact. Analysts reflect on the possibility of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation.
A Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Trigger Major Market Movements
With the cryptocurrency community eagerly anticipating the SEC’s decision on several pending bitcoin ETF applications, and the likelihood of approval appearing strong, many are now pondering how to position themselves for such an outcome. It is possible, for example, that the notable rise in Bitcoin’s price over the past year, especially since the precipitous run-up starting in September 2023, has been savvy market participants front-running the approval announcement. In which case the prudent thing to do might be to sell into the announcement of approval. The imminent decision, expected between Jan. 8 and 10, has investors and analysts weighing the implications of an approval on bitcoin’s price dynamics.
The current setup appears to be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. The concept of “buy the rumor, sell the news” is a common phenomenon in financial markets, where asset prices tend to increase in the lead-up to anticipated events due to markets acting as forward pricing mechanisms. Theoretically, given sufficient information, announcements such as the much-telegraphed bitcoin ETF approval should already be reflected in the market price of the asset at the time of the announcement.
However, once the anticipated event actually occurs and becomes public knowledge, some investors may choose to sell their shares to realize gains. This can happen even if the news is positive because the market might have overestimated its impact, or simply because investors are taking profits. Essentially, the actual event may not provide as much of an additional positive impact as the initial rumor or expectation did. This pattern is particularly relevant in the volatile and sentiment-driven cryptocurrency market, where news and expectations can significantly influence prices.
Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde from K33 Research puts the ETF approval being a sell-the-news event at 75%. “Everything points towards traders being considerably exposed ahead of the verdict, with derivatives pushing massive premiums following BTC’s last three months of continuous upside momentum. A sell-the-news event could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as a non-significant share of short-term market participants has eyeballed the event as an area for profit taking.”
History might provide some insight. bitcoin has experienced “sell the news” events before. Notably, in 2017, Bitcoin’s value peaked at ,000 after the CME Group’s launch of Bitcoin futures. Similarly, in 2021, Bitcoin reached another high of ,000 following Coinbase’s successful IPO, only to see its value decline in the subsequent months.
Capriole Investments, in an update post, recommended caution in the lead-up to a potential ETF approval, seemingly in anticipation of short time frame sell-the-news style price action. “In the more likely scenario that approvals do occur in January, we must wonder how much more short-term upside can be expected following approval?” On higher time frames it’s a different story: “the ETF approval will be a major catalyst that will open up a lot of long-term capital flows into Bitcoin”
The importance of time frame was present in every analysis of Bitcoin price action after approval, with general agreement that over longer time horizons the approval would be bullish for bitcoin. Michael Anderson of Framework Ventures summed it up well in a recent episode of Hidden Forces.
I would actually say that, yes, there are a lot of people that are already in the market that recognize the potential of these rulings, the potential of these approvals, and that’s where the run-up has been so far. But what really matters is what happens after the approvals and after the launches. Because that’s when the real buying starts.
Do you think a Bitcoin ETF approval would be a sell-the-news event? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Is A Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval A Sell The News Event? Experts Respond
All attention of crypto investors has turned toward January 10 when the first Spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to be approved. As usual, the excitement triggered by this has seen prices recover across the space, with no doubt about the bull sentiment leading up to the event. However, arguments have arisen about whether this bullish sentiment would continue if a Spot ETF is eventually approved or if it will end up being a “sell the news” event.
What Is A Sell The News Event?
The phrase “sell the news” is popular in investing circles and is usually associated with a major event that ends up moving prices. BlackRock and 12 other asset managers filing for Spot Bitcoin ETFs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is an example of such a major event.
When the event is positive, it has a good impact on assets in the industry, and in the case of crypto, the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies begin to rise. This is usually from the anticipation surrounding the event and investors taking up positions in order not to miss a major move. Mostly, this is because investors expect that the main event, such as the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, would trigger further price increases.
However, this is not always the case for the market. There have been instances where the main event actually sees prices fall across the board. Such a case is referred to as a “sell the news” event as prices are expected to decline as the euphoria reaches its climax.
The potential approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF has been argued to be a ‘sell the news’ event by many in the space, given that prices have already gone up so much. However, not everyone believes this is the case as crypto experts begin to chime in.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Not A Sell The News Event
One of the first crypto experts to share their thoughts around this is Andrew Kang. Kang took to X (formerly Twitter) to explain that the Bitcoin price is actually still mispriced even after rising more than 100% in one year to cross ,000.
Kang explains that a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval would see all of these asset managers trying to grab between and billion in fees. They will also be pushing for marketing which Kang believes every dollar spent on marketing in 2024 becomes even more important in 2025.
“When you think about the size of the opportunity, it shouldn’t surprise us to see marketing/ad spend on the scale of 2021 bull madness,” Kang said. “When you consider the importance of timing for issuers, maybe we even take it a level further. It’s going to be a bonanza.”
Also responding to and buttressing Kang’s point is @ChainLinkGod who gave their own insight into how bullish an approval is. They explain that all of the asset managers who have filed for Spot ETFs are inherently long on Bitcoin.
“Yes, they don’t technically have any directional exposure, but all else equal, a 10x in the price of bitcoin is a 10x in yearly management fees,” ChainLinkGod explains. They further add that each applicant will be looking to become the dominant player as this means they will be able to harvest billions of dollars in fees passively for years.
“All of which involves massive ad spend, shilling $BTC at every public appearance, and advising all their clientele *this year* to get exposure to $BTC via their ETF,” they explain. Given this, a potential approval is more bullish than bearish for Bitcoin as the players struggle for dominance.