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Grayscale Drops Bombshell Report: Crypto Bull Run Progresses To ‘Middle’ Phase, Future Outlook Detailed
The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge after a prolonged bear market and the intensified crypto winter caused by the collapse of crypto exchanges and firms during 2022 and part of 2023.
Notably, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced substantial price surges, accompanied by renewed interest from institutional investors entering the market through recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Adding to the industry’s positive outlook, asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer, Grayscale, believes that the current state of the market indicates that the industry is in the “middle” stages of a crypto bull run.
Grayscale recently released a comprehensive report detailing their key findings and insights into what lies ahead. A closer analysis of the report by market expert Miles Deutscher sheds light on the factors contributing to this assessment.
On-Chain Metrics And Institutional Demand
Grayscale’s report starts by highlighting several key signals indicating that the market is currently in the middle of a bull run. These include Bitcoin’s price surpassing its all-time high before the Halving event, the total crypto market cap reaching its previous peak, and the growing attention from traditional finance (TradFi) towards meme coins.
To understand how long this rally might sustain, Grayscale emphasizes two specific price drivers: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong on-chain fundamentals.
Grayscale notes that nearly billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just three months, indicating significant “pent-up” retail demand. Moreover, ETF inflows have consistently exceeded BTC issuance, creating upward price pressure due to the demand-supply imbalance.
Grayscale’s research focuses on three critical on-chain metrics: stablecoin inflows, decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL), and BTC outflows from exchanges.
According to Deutscher, the increase in stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) by approximately 6% between February and March suggests enhanced liquidity, making more capital readily available for trading.
Furthermore, for the analyst, the doubling of the total value locked into DeFi since 2023 represents growing user engagement, increased liquidity, and improved user experience within the DeFi ecosystem.
The outflows from exchanges, which currently account for about 12% of BTC’s circulating supply (the lowest in five years), indicate rising investor confidence in BTC’s value and a preference for holding rather than selling.
Based on these catalysts, Grayscale asserts that the market is in the “mid-phase” of the bull run, likening it to the “5th inning” in baseball.
Promising Outlook For Crypto Industry
Several key metrics support Grayscale’s analysis, including the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which indicates that investors who bought BTC at lower prices continue to hold despite rising prices.
According to Deutscher, the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, currently at 3, implies that there is still room for growth in this cycle. Additionally, the ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which integrates multiple ratios, currently stands at 79/100, suggesting that the market is approaching historical cycle peaks with some upward momentum remaining.
Furthermore, retail interest has yet to fully return this cycle, as evidenced by lower cryptocurrency YouTube subscription rates and reduced Google Trends interest for “crypto” compared to the previous cycle.
Ultimately, Grayscale retains a “cautiously optimistic” stance regarding the future of this bull cycle, given the promising signals and analysis outlined in their report.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise Files for Spot Ethereum ETF With SEC, Highlights Detailed Correlation Analysis
Bitwise Asset Management has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), a move aimed at providing investors with regulated exposure to ether without direct ownership of the cryptocurrency. Bitwise Aims for SEC Approval With Spot Ethereum ETF, Backed by Correlation Data Bitwise’s proposed ETF, conducted in […]
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Binance Immense XRP Holdings Exposed In Detailed Proof of Reserves Report
Binance, the largest crypto exchange in the world, just released its 11th report for its reserves, and the numbers are staggering as always. According to the report, Binance’s XRP holdings, in particular, have increased in the past month. This is evident, as there have been reports of investors depositing XRP into exchanges in the past month.
Binance Releases Proof Of Reserves Showing Massive XRP Holdings
According to Binance’s Proof of Reserves report, the exchange holds a staggering amount of XRP to cover 104.15% of customer balances.
Binance currently has over 2.738 billion XRP tokens worth more than .35 billion against customer deposits of 2.629 billion XRP tokens. This marks a rise of almost 50 million XRP in its reserve as compared to the previous month’s total of 2,686,407,725 XRP.
As one of the first major exchanges to list XRP in 2017, Binance has been known to be one of the major places for XRP trading. Data from Coingecko shows a trading volume of million of Binance’s XRP/USDT trading pair in the past 24 hours, representing over 16.9% of the total XRP trading volume. This massive XRP stash cements Binance as one of the top holders of XRP and the amount of XRP trading on the exchange.
Binance’s Reserves And XRP’s Promising Outlook
The latest reserve report shows Binance is fully backed on other cryptocurrencies. Based on the report, the exchange has a BTC ratio of 104.67%, ETH ratio of 107.29%, BNB ratio of 113.72%, USDT ratio of 118.45%, BUSD ratio of 106.99%, USDC ratio of 104.09%, and LTC ratio of 101.31%.
The Proof of Reserves report is part of Binance’s push for more transparency. By disclosing its reserves, it aims to assure users that client funds are backed 1:1. While some have backed the reserve data to be consistent with on-chain data, regulators have expressed concerns about the legitimacy of Binance’s reserve audit.
XRP has also witnessed movement into other exchanges in the past few months, as recent sporadic updates regarding Ripple have always put the cryptocurrency in the limelight. According to NewsBTC, XRP witnessed a 1,300% surge in trading volume on exchanges at some point.
According to predictions from crypto analysts, XRP is set for massive gains in the near future. A new forecast by an analyst predicts that a recently formed 39-month cycle could push XRP as high as ,000. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at .5228, up by 4.92% in the past month.
(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).
Featured image from Pandaily
India Having ‘Detailed Discussions’ With G20 Members on Crypto Regulation
India is having “detailed discussions” with other G20 members about forming a collective standard operating procedure (SOP) to regulate crypto assets, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has revealed. She also called for “a globally coordinated approach on the regulation of crypto assets” during her recent meeting with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
G20’s Crypto Regulatory Discussion Underway
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman answered some questions regarding crypto mining and regulation on Monday in Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament.
Noting that cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated in India at the moment, Sitharaman explained: “Whether it’s mining or whether it’s the asset or whether it’s the transaction, we recognize that it is very, completely almost, driven by technology, and a standalone country’s effort in controlling or regulating it is not going to be effective.” She added:
There is an evolving consensus and that’s why in the G20, we are raising this issue and having detailed discussions with the members so that a standard operating protocol [SOP] emerges after the discussions.
The Group of Twenty (G20) comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.K., the U.S., and the European Union. The G20 members represent around 85% of the global GDP, over 75% of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.
The Indian finance minister further told parliament that the aim of the discussions with other G20 members is to have “a coherent, comprehensive approach where all countries work together in bringing some regulation — whether it’s mining, whether it’s transacting — and therefore all this is being looked at comprehensively.” She emphasized:
We are working together to get a collective SOP on it.
Sitharaman similarly told reporters on Saturday that the issue of regulating crypto assets will be taken up at G20 meetings under India’s presidency.
“Crypto is heavily tech led and less of human intervention,” the Indian finance minister was quoted by PTI as saying. “We are talking to all nations that if regulation has to be framed then one country cannot frame it alone. So we are speaking to all for forming a standard operating procedure so that it is effective … All these are part of [the] discussion. The process of discussion is on in G20.”
Sitharaman’s statements followed her virtual meeting with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday where she discussed the role of the IMF and other relevant international organizations “to develop a globally coordinated approach on the regulation of crypto assets,” the Indian finance ministry described on Twitter. India’s Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said earlier this month that the Indian government plans to introduce measures around crypto this year.
At the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting last October, the Indian finance minister “called for an effective tax reporting regime and information exchange between jurisdictions for crypto assets to combat offshore tax evasion,” India’s Ministry of Finance described at the time.
While India does not have a regulatory framework for crypto, the government is taxing crypto income at 30% and has imposed a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on crypto transactions.
Earlier this month, Sitharaman presented this year’s Economic Survey to parliament highlighting the need for “a common approach to regulating the crypto ecosystem.” This year’s Finance Bill also introduced new crypto tax penalties, including jail time for nonpayment of crypto TDS.
Meanwhile, India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has continued to recommend a complete been on crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has warned that cryptocurrencies are a risk to the country’s financial system and will cause the next financial crisis if they are not banned.
Do you think India and the G20 will come up with a collective standard operating procedure to regulate crypto assets this year? Let us know in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Flickers Near $35,000 as Bond Yields Drop; A Detailed Outlook
Bitcoin wobbled between gains and losses on Wednesday as traders measured on-chain sell-off signals against the drop in the benchmark bond yields.
The flagship cryptocurrency surged around 0.5 percent to ,335 ahead of the New York opening bell. It was trading at ,233 on Coinbase exchange at its intraday high, pointing to bullish attempts to log another bull run towards ,000.
![Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT](https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ulKQaEC2-860x509.png)
Bitcoin feels bearish sentiment under ,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Fundamentals supported a choppy outlook in the cryptocurrency market.
Benchmark Bond Yield Trims Lower
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped after rising seven days in a row. Its gains appeared amid an auction of new bonds that attracted strong demand from dealers (not investors). They scooped up the majority of billion worth of new government debt, covering 20 percent of the securities. Yields fall as the bond prices rise.
Strong demand at an auction of bn of 10-year notes overnight and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials began to SAP momentum from the recent strong rally in US Treasury yields.Policymakers have played down talk of tapering asset purchases#XAUUSD #GOLD #DXY
— Alice CFA 🎓 (@canduys) January 13, 2021
Bitcoin traded higher as the long-term bond yields remained capped under 1 percent after the March 2020 rout. Traders anticipated that the Federal Reserve’s commitment to purchase government debt to support the US economy would send mainstream investors looking for better returns in the cryptocurrency market.
That somewhat turned true as billionaire investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, alongside mainstream corporations including MicroStrategy, Ruffer Investments, Square, etc., put their capital into the Bitcoin market. That helped the cryptocurrency emerge as a perceived safe-haven asset.
But with the yield back above 1 percent, especially as the President-elect Joe Biden commits greater government spending, along with economic growth, Bitcoin’s potential to champion another upside run looks meager short-term.
![US 10-year Treasury note, US10Y, bond yields](https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/xHzrntVJ-860x509.png)
US 10-year bond yields dropped two days in a row. Source: US10Y on TradingView.com
Meanwhile, many analysts note that the Fed would cap the Treasury yields because they have committed to support the US economy. The central bank would purchase bonds infinitely until they achieve inflation above 2 percent and maximum employment.
“I don’t think we will see rates move much higher because there is still a lot of demand,” said Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy for State Street Global Advisors in Europe. Meanwhile, he noted that additional stimulus prospects would protect riskier assets.
That may include Bitcoin, given its shoulder-to-shoulder gains with the global stock market in 2020.
On-Chain Bitcoin Data Disappoints
While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains stronger, its short-term bias brings forth eerie viewpoints.
Ki-Young Ju, the chief executive officer at CryptoQuant—a South Korea-based blockchain analytics platform, noted that outflows from Coinbase Pro, a US-based digital asset exchange that deals in Bitcoin over-the-counter, dropped significantly.
“Miners are selling, no significant stablecoin inflows, no Coinbase outflows, and 15k BTC flowed into exchanges since yesterday,” Mr. Ju said Tuesday. “We might have second dumping.”
Grayscale Investments, a New York-based trust that deals in Bitcoin, also stopped reporting their cryptocurrency purchases since December 25. The firm was responsible for creating a supply crunch after it raked up a total of 572,644 BTC.
![Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT](https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ErmprpyVoAMDA34-860x377.jpeg)
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holdings. Source: ByBt.com
“When inflows start coming in, indicating institutional demand, that’s when Bitcoin could start to rally upwards again,” said market analyst Joseph Young. “Worth observing.“
Grayscale reopened on Tuesday after the holiday season.
NEO Releases Detailed Financials Ahead of Cryptocurrency Relaunch
Many of the companies associated with NEO have proven to be a lucrative boon for token cofounders Erik Zhang and Da Hongfei.
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No, Forbes, Facebook’s Newly Detailed Not-So-Crypto is No Rival for Bitcoin
The launch of a crypto-like-currency by social media giant Facebook has been the topic of many discussions in the Bitcoin and digital asset space recently. However, little was known about it outside of the company developing a mysterious blockchain department and rumours about a WhatsApp-based digital coin being launched by the firm.
According to a report published today by Forbes more details of the project have emerged. Nothing is particularly exciting about today’s revelations but we really wish the publication would drop the “rival to Bitcoin” angle.
Facebook Announces Further Details of its Intranet to Bitcoin’s Internet
The social media giant Facebook has disclosed further details about its plans to launch a digital currency (very) loosely inspired by Bitcoin. The company will reportedly be launching “GlobalCoin” – snappy, we know – in early 2020 and will offer some form of payments network between a dozen countries at first.
According to reports, Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of Facebook, met with Bank of England governor, Mark Carey, to discuss the plans and has also put the idea to US Treasury officials, as well as money transfer firms, and the top brass at the Gemini crypto exchange.
Zuckerberg told a Facebook developer conference last month that he thought payments was an area that the firm could really make things easier for people. However, the move also stinks of a desperate attempt to stay relevant amid dwindling users and security controversies such as the Cambridge Analytica scandal last year.
Fast, Cheap, Centralised Payments, Two out of Three Ain’t Bad, Right?
The fact that today’s announcement did not move the Bitcoin market whatsoever could be evidence of a much more mature market – particularly given that publications like Forbes seem hell bend on branding GlobalCoin as an alternative to Bitcoin. The very headline of the article is “Facebook And WhatsApp Break Cover With Bitcoin Rival Plans”, it then goes on to reference the scheme as a rival to Bitcoin multiple times in the text.
Facebook is gearing up to launch a rival to bitcoin as soon as next year as it accelerates plans to diversify its revenue away from advertising https://t.co/UB3kQP91vu pic.twitter.com/jCYNHG8eI3
— Forbes (@Forbes) May 24, 2019
In the following video, Bitcoin evangelist discusses the kind of private versions of digital assets that firms such as Facebook and JP Morgan have been exploring recently:
The social media executive’s stance could not be more different from that of crypto, and more specifically Bitcoin, uber-optimist Jack Dorsey. Dorsey is Zuckerberg’s equivalent at Twitter and nicely demonstrates how a CEO not hell-bent on world domination behaves.
He sees radical freedom-creating opportunity in Bitcoin so has decided to back companies developing on it, provide consistent price support with ,000 monthly buys, and champions the network at every available opportunity. Every heard of TwitterCoin? No, neither have we. That’s because he doesn’t want his hands all over your wallet, as well as every detail of your personal life.
Whilst GlobalCoin poses little risk to Bitcoin itself, some from the crypto asset space are optimistic about how the news will impact the the purely decentralised asset. Spencer Bogart of Blockchain Capital recently speculated on the on boarding potential of such a scheme:
“It will be like being on the internet so people can spin-out and start owning bitcoin, Ethereum… Bitcoin has gone from zero users ten years ago to somewhere between 30 million to 100 million–the estimates are tough. And Facebook has billions of users.”
Related Reading: US Senate Mulls Regulatory Implications of Facebook’s Mysterious Crypto Project
Featured Image from Shutterstock.
The post No, Forbes, Facebook’s Newly Detailed Not-So-Crypto is No Rival for Bitcoin appeared first on NewsBTC.
Hong Kongs Securities Regulator Issues Detailed Guidance for Security Token Offerings
n Hong Kong’s securities regulator, the Securities and Futures Commission, has issued official guidance on security token offeringsn
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