This weekend, following the first presidential debate of 2024, the prediction market Polymarket, powered by Polygon, saw a shift in the wager regarding whether incumbent President Joe Biden will withdraw from the race. Just two days prior, the odds of Biden stepping down were at 39%, and as of June 30, 2024, the probability has […]
Bitcoin News
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Inc., Reflects on His Company’s Transformational Pivot to Bitcoin and More
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Inc., took time out of running the Bitcoin Asia Conference in Hong Kong to sit down with Bitcoin.com’s COO, Jason Sheman. The conversation delved into the lessons learned from past mistakes, the strategic pivot to Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Conference, Bitcoin Layer twos, and stablecoins on Bitcoin. Bitcoin Asia Conference Highlights: […]
Bitcoin News
Lightspark CEO David Marcus: Lightning Network Will Become the World’s ‘Interoperability Neutral Settlement Layer’
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, a company that offers lightning network (LN) related services, has stated that LN will become the “interoperability neutral settlement layer” for the world. Marcus declared that only Bitcoin is “neutral enough” to be implemented as the enabler between national payment systems, granting companies and institutions adopting it an edge for […]
Bitcoin News
Larry David Reflects on Super Bowl FTX Ad: ‘Like an Idiot, I Did It’
At the premiere of “Curb Your Enthusiasm’s” final season, Larry David expressed remorse for his participation in a Super Bowl commercial for FTX, reflecting on the decision as misguided after the cryptocurrency exchange’s bankruptcy.
Larry David Admits Regret Over FTX Super Bowl Ad: ‘Like an Idiot, I Did It’
Larry David, the creator behind “Seinfeld” and “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” has recently expressed regret over his involvement in a Super Bowl ad for the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Speaking at the premiere of the final season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” David admitted that his decision to endorse FTX was misguided.
I asked people—friends of mine who were well versed in this stuff—’Should I do this ad? Is there anything wrong with this, with me doing this? Is this okay?’ And they said, ‘Yeah, this is totally on the up and up… Do it.’ So like an idiot, I did it.
In the 2022 Super Bowl commercial, David humorously rejected groundbreaking inventions like the wheel and the lightbulb, ending with a skeptical view of FTX. This ironic approach became controversial when FTX filed for bankruptcy in November 2022 after significant discrepancies in its accounting came to light.
Alongside other celebrity endorsers, including Tom Brady and Shaquille O’Neal, David found himself embroiled in a class action lawsuit. The suit accuses them of complicity in a “fraudulent scheme” with FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, aimed at deceiving unsophisticated investors.
“I’m in a class action lawsuit, which I would love to be part of,” David told the Associated Press. “Because part of my salary was in crypto—so I lost a lot of money.” It’s reported in a biography of Bankman-Fried by Michael Lewis that David was paid million for the ad, but the payment method remains unconfirmed.
Legal proceedings against FTX continue, recently the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia reversed a prior decision, now requiring FTX to be investigated by an independent examiner. As for FTX’s founder and former CEO, Bankman-Fried has been convicted of multiple federal fraud and conspiracy charges, with sentencing scheduled for March.
Do you think Larry David is culpable of any wrongdoing for partaking in the FTX Super Bowl ad? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
VESA Podcast Ep.I – David Orban
Today we’re taking a look at an important first. It is the start of the VESA Podcast, and as the first guest, we meet David Orban, who was generous with his time to record this conversation. A previous iteration of a podcast was already started in 2017, with some notable guests like Charlie Lee, but now the time was right for a rebrand and a jump up to speed on connecting with people in the scene.
It was also a blessing in disguise that the zoom recording of this podcast was recorded on zoom, and VESA erroneously remembered that the recording quality is HD, which it wasn’t. Luckily the upscaling of the 360p video with AI came to make it a crisp 4K, even if the titles of the books are washed out.
New Podcast
David is an investor, entrepreneur, author, keynote speaker, and thought leader of the global technology landscape. His entrepreneurial accomplishments span several companies founded and grown over more than twenty years. VESA and David first met in Dubai during VESA’s exhibition at the Dubai Mall. Their initial conversation spanned over many in depth topics, touching on the ever changing technology space, entrepreneurship, AI and ethics, and what the future holds for the scene itself. This is an interpretative summary of David’s appearance on the VESA Podcast recently and what that conversation looked like.
To listen to the entire episode on the VESA Podcast on You Tube, click here:
Listen on Spotify
Listen on Youtube
David joins the podcast from his home in Northern Italy, where he feels comfortable surrounded by his impressive library of books and high quality Italian food.
As a starting point, VESA dove into David’s view on his inner science, as he knew based on their previous conversation that David had completed a Vipassana, or a silent retreat. Complete silence with no technology, or any kind of entertainment or study material might seem counterintuitive for a technologist, but David credited the retreat as hugely impactful and positive.
– It is actually not easy, David says.
He describes the amount of discipline it requires to completely withdraw to a world without electronics, books, newspapers or even eye contact with other people. The discipline was self-administered, understanding the benefits of the practice.
He adds that the recommendation is to meditate one to two hours a day after completing the retreat, but that he hasn’t applied this yet to his daily routine.
The conversation then turns to the opposite end of the spectrum, a world of total electronic or machine integration. How far down the pike are we? Will we even realize, when the chip is installed, or has it indeed already been installed years ago due to our association with technology?
David offers that everything we experience can be dissected on the objective-subjective axis, and further by taking into consideration time and place. What is a subjective experience with little to no relevance to others, versus timeless truths will depend greatly on how the information is curated and presented. Technology as we know it is deeply entwined with the time and place aspect. Technology socializes us and points us in the direction of necessary skills and behaviours. This influence has to be modulated, he states.
MMA of Religion
VESA then wants to present an idea to David that he has been developing in his mind for a little while. The concept pertains to the evolution of religion and what the next step could look like in what could arguably be called a post-Christian world. He suggests that there could emerge an amalgam of religions that takes traditions from different faiths, an MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) of religion, as he calls it.
– I recommend people be immodest, but humble, David starts as he describes a person capable of connecting the dots across different fields and from various sources of authority.
– Many are uncomfortable in accepting revealed religions as the answer to essential questions, but as I saw after the collapse of the Berlin wall, people have a need for religious experiences and I respect that, so I feel an evolution to bridge that gap might very well be underway.
In many ways you have to regress 200 years in order to resonate with the current church paradigm of wooden long benches and hymns.
VESA notes that a similar ‘religious’ belief surfacing from different fields is the idea that we live in a simulation. This, he says, brings about an attitude which paired with rapidly evolving AI might lead to a pathologically Godless society, lacking spiritual nourishment and transcendence.
The perplexing phenomenon of our time is that at the same time we have the most advanced non-biological technology and the demand to return to being the centre of the universe, so to speak.
Do we live in a simulation?
Inspired by his revelations with his new AI Series Juxtaposers, VESA presents an idea that in the current cultural context of left vs right, what seems to be missing is differentiation between establishment and anti-establishment, and how some times these labels can flip on their heads simply because of provoking thought, as in the case of Russel Brandt, who is now seen as a right-wing person simply because he has vocalized anti-establishment views. This axiom is at the heart of the Juxtaposers- series, which includes polarizing figures like Andrew Tate, Ben Shapiro, AOC and more.
– If you think about it, the Amish are more anti-establishment than most, it’s just a low dopamine ride, he explains as to why he wanted to draw parallels between Andrew Tate as an Amish apple picker.
As a segway to another cultural context, VESA tells that he had mixed feelings about a video he viewed with Sam Altman and Android Jones discussing AI. To him, Android’s very name and his fervent opposition to AI was in stark contrast.
– In times gone past, we used to organize ourselves in guilds as a way to control who has the right to express certain trades. Now, perhaps for the first time, we have the opportunity to open the arts for everyone, David says.
– The current situation is a dam about to burst. The label ‘artist’ is open to everyone and we will devise new metrics of value as a result, he explains.
Listen on YoutubeVESA gives an example of him commissioning a rap song via AI that was purely produced as a soundtrack for him painting in his studio, and how not even the most indulgent king would have dreamed of doing something like that before.
Actioneer
Next, VESA wants to learn more about David’s company Actioneer. He offers himself up as an example of someone who is masterful at their craft and quite observant, but hesitates in fulfilling a role of a CEO or a COO in a company setting, which modern day artists need to consider. What can a company like Actioneer do for artists and others who find themselves in a similar position?
– The world is so complex that we need all the help we can get. AI can help us decode our questions better than ever before, as we look into a paradigm where the old system of educating, gaining a job, working and dying is being challenged, David says.
– The spearhead of this are the founders of startups, and the entrepreneurial spirit is what Actioneer supports. To a select few this has been available for a while through incubators and mentorships, and Actioneer can democratize this help and make it very abundant, he explains.
– We believe that the world will be as saturated with tools like Actioneer, as it is presently with access to the Internet, because they are such an integral part of our modern lives, he says.
VESA sums up the necessity of these tools by noting that if you don’t become an entrepreneur as an artist, you won’t be an artist for long.
To follow David Orban’s message, you can find him at:
David Orban Dot Com
All socials etc
______
Until next time,
VESA & Lotta
Crypto & NFT Artist
All links to physical, NFTs, and more below
http://linktr.ee/ArtByVesa
Lightspark’s CEO David Marcus Recognizes Current Non-Custodial Lightning Network Solutions Imply ‘Some Form of Compromise’
David Marcus, co-founder and CEO of Lightspark, an institutional Lightning Network (LN) payment solutions provider, referred to the state of custodial and non-custodial transactions on the network. While Marcus believes that custodial LN for institutions is ready for prime time, he acknowledged that non-custodial usage still implies compromising on some features.
Lightspark’s David Marcus: Lightning Network ‘Works Well’ for Institutional and Custodial Settings
David Marcus, co-founder and CEO of Lightspark, a Lightning Network (LN) payments solution provider, has referred to the state of custodial and non-custodial payments using Bitcoin’s Layer 2 scaling solution. On X, Marcus reiterated his belief in Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency that can serve as the base for a worldwide payments network.
Marcus stated:
Bitcoin is the only viable neutral settlement asset and network that can usher in a new era of global real-time payments. Everything else is either too centralized, not secure enough, doesn’t have the required regulatory clarity, or doesn’t have the required depth of liquidity.
Lightspark is based on this premise, seeking to allow institutions and customers to harness the power of the Bitcoin network but using LN to avoid high fees with near-instant transaction finality. According to Marcus, this task has been challenging, having previously stated that it was “incredibly complex and hard to build software around this protocol.”
Nonetheless, the company has managed to build a suite of tools and protocols that have simplified the use of LN for institutions in custodial scenarios. Marcus stated that the company has focused on this part of the market due to the volumes moved, seeking to have the most significant impact in the short and medium-term scenarios.
Non-Custodial LN Problems
The current situation with high on-chain fees and how some wallets manage channels and user payments have awakened the debate on the usefulness of non-custodial LN solutions when the base layer suffers from congestion.
Marcus specifically outlined two challenges: receiving payments offline and reducing the fees for opening channels for smaller transactions. While some solutions are in the works for tackling these difficulties in the future, he acknowledged that current non-custodial LN users had to face tradeoffs.
Marcus declared:
To be blunt, if you want full support for non-custodial Lightning with offline receive and want to make it economically viable, you have to accept some form of compromise on the trustlessness level of the solution.
Even after recognizing this, Marcus is bullish on the future, stressing Bitcoin is on the brink of becoming the internet’s money protocol and achieving mass adoption.
What do you think about David Marcus’ opinions on the current state of non-custodial LN payments? Tell us in the comments section below.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus Profiles Bitcoin as Global Payment Network
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark and co-creator of Diem, Meta’s failed cryptocurrency project, explained his intentions of turning Bitcoin into a global payments network. Marcus explained that there was no universal protocol for sending value over the internet and that we were still in the “fax era” of global payments.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus Wants to Get Payments out of the ‘Fax Era’
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark and co-creator of the defunct Diem cryptocurrency project, has talked about how Bitcoin might become a global payments network. In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Marcus detailed the need for a universal platform to allow money transfers to be as easy as text or video communication using today’s messaging apps.
When consulted about the need for a global payment system, Marcus stated that we are still in the “fax era” of payments, with no universal way of transacting money from one place to another without using common fintech apps in a fragmented market.
Lightspark, Marcus’s new startup, focuses on implementing solutions for enterprises using the Lightning Network, an expansion layer for Bitcoin, to streamline and accelerate the payment experience on top of Bitcoin. Lightspark has partnered with several companies, including Xapo Bank, Rain, Flexa, Chainalysis, Notabene, and TRM Labs.
Marcus believes the size of the payment business is “ginormous,” with a potential market of trillions of dollars that currently move through legacy bank-dependent cross-border payment systems like SWIFT.
Marcus: Bitcoin Will Not Be the Currency ‘People Will Use to Buy Things’
Marcus also stressed that, according to his vision, bitcoin will not be the currency used to make payments in the future due to its anticipated growth in price. On the contrary, Bitcoin will serve as a platform to empower the exchange of value using other fiat currencies.
On how this will be achieved, Marcus declared:
A fragment of a bitcoin on top of Lightning is like a small data packer on the internet only for value. And so, you can exchange at the edges of the network and send dollars to someone who will receive Japanese yen on the other side.
He further explained that this use case could be sustained using Bitcoin alongside Lightning Network, with transactions settling in real-time at “very, very low costs.”
What do you think about David Marcus’ intentions of using Lightning Network to make Bitcoin a universal settlement layer? Tell us in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Breakout Or Breakdown? Ark Invest’s David Puell Shares His Prediction
David Puell, an on-chain researcher at Ark Invest, today shared his insights in a detailed report, offering a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin’s current standing and future prospects. The report, titled “The Bitcoin Monthly: July 2023,” addresses several key topics that are central to understanding the current state of Bitcoin.
These topics include a comprehensive market summary, an analysis of Bitcoin’s low volatility and whether it indicates a potential breakdown or breakout, as well as a discussion on the impact of the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy as a leading indicator of price deflation.
Ark Invest’s Near-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction
Puell’s analysis reveals a mixed, but mainly bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency ending July at ,230, above its 200-week moving average and its short-term-holder (STH) cost basis of ,328. This suggests a strong support level for Bitcoin, indicating a potential upward trend, notes Puell.
However, Bitcoin’s 90-day volatility, which dropped to 36% in July, a level not seen since January 2017, presents a neutral outlook. Puell explains, “Based on its low level of volatility, we believe the Bitcoin price could be setting up to move dramatically in one direction or the other during the next few months.” This could mean a significant price movement, but the direction – up or down – is uncertain.
Puell also points to signs of miner capitulation as a bullish indicator. “During July, the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate dropped below its 60-day moving average, suggesting that miner activity had capitulated,” he states. Miner capitulation is typically associated with oversold conditions in BTC price, hinting at a potential bullish reversal.
The “liveliness” metric, which measures potential selling pressure relative to current holding behavior, also suggests a bullish trend. The analyst notes, “In July, liveliness dropped below 60%, suggesting the strongest long-term holding behavior since the last quarter of 2020.” This indicates that more holders are keeping their coins rather than selling them, which could drive the price up.
ARK’s own short-term-holder profit/loss ratio, which ended July at ~1, is also seen as a bullish sign. Puell explains, “This breakeven level correlates both with local bottoms during primary bull markets and with local tops during bear market environments.”
However, the future of Binance’s BNB token, which is facing increased regulatory pressure, looks bearish according to Puell. He warns, “As regulatory pressure increases on crypto exchange Binance, its native token, BNB, could be on the threshold of significant turbulence.” If BNB breaks down, it could potentially impact the overall stability of the crypto market, including BTC.
Macro Outlook
On the macroeconomic front, Puell discusses the potential impact of the Fed’s 22-fold increase in interest rates, which he views as bearish for Bitcoin and the broader economy. He states, “According to renowned economist Milton Friedman, monetary policy works with ‘long and variable lags’ that last 12-18 months, suggesting that the full impact of the Fed’s 22-fold increase in interest rates has yet to hit.”
The Zillow Rent Index, which leads the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) by roughly nine months, suggests that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could decelerate significantly below 2% by year-end. Puell views this as a bullish sign for Bitcoin, as it could potentially increase the attractiveness of non-inflationary assets like Bitcoin.
Lastly, Ark Invest takes a neutral stance on the falling US import prices from China, despite the yuan’s depreciation by ~12% since February 2022. He notes, “All else equal, China exporters should have increased prices to offset the depreciation of the yuan. Instead, they have cut prices, harming their profitability.”
In conclusion, Puell’s report presents a complex picture for Bitcoin. While there are a lot of signs for a potential bullish trend, there are also significant risks and uncertainties that could lead to bearish outcomes.
At press time, the BTC price was at .152. The most crucial resistance at the moment lies at .450. If BTC can overcome this resistance, a breakout from the multi-week downtrend might be possible.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus States Building on Bitcoin’s Lightning Network Is ‘Incredibly Complex and Hard’
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, a company that builds business-grade solutions to facilitate payments on top of the Lightning Network, shared his experience in developing on top of the Bitcoin scaling layer. Marcus stated that it is “incredibly complex and hard to build software around this protocol,” acknowledging the constraints the Lightning Network presents for builders.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus Acknowledges Lightning Network Constraints for Builders
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, a company that builds payments solutions on top of the Lightning Network, a second-layer scaling platform for Bitcoin, has given his opinion about the challenges that building on top of this protocol presents for companies.
Marcus, a veteran in the payments arena who was president of Paypal, head of Novi at Meta, and part of the Diem Board of Members, says Lightspark decided to build around the layer-2 protocol due to the “unique qualities” Bitcoin presents as an underlying network. However, he declared:
Building on Lightning and Bitcoin is likely at least 5x harder than building with other protocols. It’s so incredibly complex and hard to build software around this protocol.
Rigidity and Difficulty
Marcus attributes part of this difficulty to the rigidity of Bitcoin and the problems of changing its structure to include new code in its base layer, to accommodate the needs of specific solutions. On this issue, he stated:
Bitcoin layer 1 is incredibly rigid. Getting a new opcode to mainnet is almost mission impossible. Constraints are what they are.
However, instead of considering this difficulty a problem and abandoning the protocol to use other, less complicated chains, Lightspark took it as a challenge to build a payment solution that would be relevant “100 years from now.” Marcus concluded:
We recommitted ourselves to building on Bitcoin Lightning, and to doing whatever it took to realize its fullest potential. Because it’s time for the world to have a universal open protocol for payments.
Marcus is not the first to recognize the intricacies and overall difficulties of producing software around the Lightning Network. Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, CEO of Binance, also stated that including Lightning Network services on Binance’s platform was “more complicated” than it might appear, due to the utilization of on-demand invoices, different from pre-generated addresses.
Fiatjaf, a Bitcoin developer and the creator of the decentralized social protocol Nostr, also recently criticized the Lightning Network, calling it an “inelegant pile of ugly and complicated hacks.”
What do you think about David Marcus’ vision of building on top of the Lightning Network? Tell us in the comments section below.
Macro Strategist David Hunter Predicts Global Markets’ ‘Melt Up’ Surge in Q4 2023, Followed by Impending ‘Bust’
David Hunter, the chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, predicts an interesting development for global markets in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to him, global markets will experience a remarkable surge, aptly described as a “melt up.” However, this surge will be short-lived, as a substantial downturn is expected to follow. Hunter emphasizes that after this rise and fall, we won’t witness the same lofty peaks of the 41-year secular bull cycle for many years to come.
Contrarian Macro Advisors Exec Anticipates Global Markets’ ‘Melt Up’ in Q4 2023, Warns 80% Downturn Will Follow
In an interview with Kitco News’ lead anchor and editor-in-chief, Michelle Makori, David Hunter delved into the realm of the economy, unraveling a compelling narrative of a potential “melt up” scenario. Renowned for his remarkable knack for forecasting economic cycles and identifying market trends ahead of the curve, Hunter unveiled his forecast.
He painted a picture of the S&P 500 soaring by a staggering 36%, while the value of gold would ascend to ,000 per ounce by October. However, Hunter cautioned that these bullish scenarios will be fleeting, as an imminent and significant market bust looms on the horizon, paving the way for a profound recession.
“My S&P target is six to seven thousand,” Hunter explained during his interview with Makori. “My targets are gold to ,000 pre-bust and silver to pre-bust … We’ll probably see most of the melt-up move by the end of the summer, which could mean Labor Day, but it could stretch into September.”
So what exactly is a melt up? Traditionally, these market phenomena resemble bull traps, serving as deceptive and unreliable signals of an impending market surge. The gains experienced during a melt up are often viewed with skepticism because, despite the temporary upward momentum, the underlying fundamentals of the market continue to deteriorate. Throughout history, melt-ups have frequently paved the way for subsequent meltdowns, reminiscent of the notable ‘Fall Melt-Up of 2011,’ aptly dubbed the ‘Great Surprise.’
Hunter suggests that we have found ourselves nearing the culmination of a significant 41-year secular bull run that commenced in 1982. Hunter stressed:
That is when the disinflation trend began and interest rates peaked out. I think the highs of this bull market will not likely be seen again for decades.
Throughout the turbulent economic history of the United States, significant transformations such as the notorious ‘Great Depression’ and the formidable ‘Great Recession’ were marked by the occurrence of tantalizing melt-ups. These preludes to market busts enticed investors with their deceptive allure. Prior to the infamous stock market crash in 1929, an extended period of prosperity propelled stock prices to unprecedented heights, witnessing a staggering quadrupling in value from 1920 to 1929. Fueled by misguided optimism, investors fell victim to the illusory signals of the melt-up, succumbing to the temptation of borrowing extensively to pour more funds into the market.
According to Hunter, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s implementation of quantitative tightening measures has surpassed the optimal threshold, pushing it into the realm of going “too far.” Economist Steve Hanke echoes this sentiment, as he recently emphasized that the current monetary tightening bears an uncanny resemblance to the contractionary policies witnessed in “1938 or 1939.” In a recent interview, Hanke drew attention to the parallels between the present circumstances and the historical instances of economic shrinkage. While speaking with Makori, Hunter insists “We are in uncharted territory.”
“The formula is, really, economic fragility caused by the pandemic, plus potentially the biggest policy error [over-tightening] in history by central banks, and plus leverage,” Hunter said. “You’ve got a formula which takes a normal recession into something far worse.”
Hunter explained that the type of “bust” he envisions will entail markets recording an 80% drawdown, and while he predicts gold will reach an all-time high this year, precious metals like gold and silver will drop back to today’s levels. “I don’t think very many assets are going to be able to escape a deflationary bust,” Hunter added. The macro strategist concluded, however, that gold and silver will see upsides following the bust, and both could rise ten times higher in value after the bottom.
What are your thoughts on David Hunter’s forecast of a ‘melt up’ followed by a significant market downturn? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.