As bitcoin navigates a tumultuous trading range between ,022 and ,430, market analysts scrutinize oscillators and moving averages for future price direction clues. The cryptocurrency’s price hovers at around ,110 on April 19, 2024, reflecting a volatile day for traders after the escalating conflict in the Middle East and ahead of the halving. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s […]
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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Oscillators and Moving Averages Paint a Complex Picture
Amid shifting market sentiments, bitcoin’s market activity on Feb. 26, 2024, demonstrates both consolidation and fluctuation. Within the intraday, bitcoin’s value oscillated between ,926 and ,917, highlighting the persistent unpredictability of the crypto economy while bitcoin’s market capitalization remains over the trillion-dollar mark. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s (BTC) 24-hour trading volume hit .57 billion, indicating a decrease […]
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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Deciphering BTC’s Complex Market Behavior
Bitcoin’s price dynamics on Jan. 24, 2024, present a complex picture of market fluctuations and investor sentiment. With prices oscillating between ,878 and ,069 in the past hour and a broader 24-hour range of ,505 to ,515, the cryptocurrency exhibits notable volatility.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at 5 billion, with a 24-hour trade volume of .02 billion. These figures underscore the leading cryptocurrency’s continued presence in the market. While BTC is up 2.5% today, it is down 6% over the past week and 12% over the past fortnight, illustrating the short-term recovery amidst a medium-term downtrend. This fluctuation is critical for traders to consider in their strategies.
On the 1-hour chart, BTC shows a recent bounce from the low at ,505, reaching a local high of ,515, hinting at a short-term uptrend. The current consolidation phase, characterized by modest moves, suggests a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A potential entry point could be considered if there’s a breakout above ,515, signaling continued bullish momentum. At the same time, a break below the consolidation area could serve as an exit signal, indicating a weakening bullish trend.
The 4-hour chart reveals a more nuanced view of the ongoing downtrend, punctuated by a strong rise lifting prices from a low of ,505. However, the presence of smaller-bodied dips points to market indecision. For cautious investors, an entry might be prudent after a 4-hour candle closes above ,152, suggesting a shift in the short-term trend. Conversely, a drop below the significant low at ,505 could warrant an exit, signaling a potential resumption of the downtrend.
The daily chart portrays a pronounced bearish trend, with a high of around ,048, followed by smaller drops indicating stronger selling pressure. The recent rise near ,505, with increased volume, could suggest a short-term reversal or pullback. Traders might seek an entry upon confirmation of a trend reversal, such as higher lows or a break above a key resistance level with substantial volume. An exit strategy could involve mitigating losses if the price fails to sustain this pullback.
Oscillators offer insights into the market’s momentum and potential reversals. The relative strength index (RSI) at 39 and the Stochastic at 9 are neutral, indicating no clear overbought or oversold conditions. The commodity channel index (CCI) at -118 suggests a bullish opportunity, while the momentum indicator at -1677 aligns with this view. However, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) level at -797 indicates selling pressure, presenting a mixed signal overall.
Moving averages (MAs) provide a broader view of market trends. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs) for shorter periods (10, 20, 30, 50) suggest ongoing bearish activity, reflecting the recent downtrend. In contrast, longer periods (100, 200) indicate bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential reversal. This divergence between short and long-term averages highlights the current market uncertainty.
Bull Verdict:
Despite recent volatility, bitcoin’s technical indicators suggest a bullish trend may be on the horizon. The cryptocurrency’s ability to rebound from lower support levels, coupled with a potential shift in market sentiment as indicated by the latest oscillator readings and moving averages, underscores its resilience. Furthermore, the increase in trade volume and stabilization near key resistance levels could attract more buyers, potentially driving prices upwards.
Bear Verdict:
Current technical analysis points to a continuation of the bearish trend for bitcoin. As reflected in the daily chart, the persistent lower highs and high selling pressure signify a strong bearish sentiment. Oscillator indicators like the MACD Level suggest ongoing selling pressure, while the moving averages recommend a sell across shorter periods. The lack of a decisive breakout above major resistance levels and the potential for further downturns should caution investors.
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What do you think about bitcoin’s market action on Wednesday? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Circle CEO Says Investors Should Have Exposure to Bitcoin in Complex Geopolitical Environment
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire says in a complex geopolitical environment, bitcoin is an asset that investors should have some exposure to. He emphasized that “digital commodities are here to stay,” noting that bitcoin is the largest digital commodity asset. The executive also believes that stablecoins will be “explosive in terms of its growth in the coming years.”
‘Digital Commodities Are Here to Stay’
The CEO of crypto firm Circle, Jeremy Allaire, shared his bitcoin outlook in an interview with CNBC earlier this week. “Digital commodities are here to stay,” the executive began, emphasizing that “Bitcoin is the largest digital commodity asset.” He opined:
In a complex geopolitical environment, a complex macroeconomic environment, this is an asset that you should have some exposure to.
Allaire explained that many people who invest in bitcoin believe that the cryptocurrency “is a risk hedge asset.” He added that BTC “can be correlated to the availability of money supply but also can be uncorrelated,” noting that “It doesn’t fit every box, clearly.”
The Circle executive also provided his outlook for stablecoins. Circle is the issuer of U.S. dollar-based stablecoin USDC. Allaire stated that dollar-based stablecoins can be a strong store of value and a medium of exchange that has all the power of the internet. Noting that stablecoins are a huge innovation, he opined: “I expect it to be explosive in terms of its growth in the coming years.”
Many others believe that bitcoin is a risk hedge asset. Venture capitalist Tim Draper previously explained that he is bullish about bitcoin because “it’s a great hedge against inflation.” Famed hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has said several times that bitcoin is his preferred inflation hedge over gold.
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink detailed in July that bitcoin can hedge against inflation and “the onerous problems of any one country, or the devaluation of your currency, whatever country you are in.” Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, is currently seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
What do you think about the statements by Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire? Let us know in the comments section below.
Hong Kong Regulators Restrict Retail Investor Access to ‘Complex’ Crypto Products
The securities regulator and the central banking institution of Hong Kong have updated the region’s crypto policy in response to enquiries from the industry. In a circular on the virtual asset-related activities of intermediaries, the authorities introduced additional measures to protect retail investors, restricting their access to what they describe as “complex products.”
Hong Kong Updates Regulations for Virtual Asset Service Providers in Light of Market Developments
Hong Kong’s initial approach to regulating crypto assets, adopted five years ago, boiled down to limiting various activities in the market to professional investors only. Since then, however, the range of investment products offering exposure to virtual assets has expanded significantly and, for example, regulators allowed crypto trading platforms to serve retail investors.
In the light of market developments and in response to an increasing number of enquiries from industry players who want to further expand retail access to virtual asset (VA) products and services, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) have released a joint circular updating their policy in that regard.
The authorities pointed out that due to the still uneven global regulatory landscape, the risks they highlighted in 2018 are still valid today. They also noted that as crypto platforms may be unregulated or partially regulated, they may not be subject to the same standards that apply to service providers in the traditional financial space, posing additional risks.
“As these risks are not reasonably likely to be understood by a retail investor, VA-related products are very likely to be considered complex products,” the regulatory institutions said. Hence, intermediaries distributing such crypto products should comply with the SFC’s requirements for selling complex products, the announcement emphasized.
The SFC and the HKMA insisted that investor protection measures, supplementing the requirements under Hong Kong’s complex product regime, should be imposed to cover specific risks associated with VA products, pointing to a number of overseas non-derivative products such as crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) as an example.
The regulatory bodies are convinced that it’s necessary to impose additional measures to protect investors. These include allowing the offering of VA-related products which are considered complex only to professional investors. The government agencies elaborated:
For example, an overseas VA non-derivative ETF would very likely be considered a complex product and it should only be offered to professional investors.
Intermediaries should also assess whether retail investors have the knowledge to invest in virtual assets or VA-related products before they process a crypto transaction on their behalf. “If a client does not possess such knowledge, the intermediary may only proceed if it has provided adequate training to the client on the nature and risks of virtual assets,” the regulators said. “Intermediaries should also ensure that their clients have sufficient net worth to be able to assume the risks and bear the potential losses of trading VA-related products,” they added.
Hong Kong set out to become a hub for crypto assets and businesses as part of efforts to revive its status of a global financial center after the Covid-19 pandemic. The revised rules for the industry come in the wake of the crackdown on JPEX. The fraud probe of the crypto exchange resulted in the suspension of some of its activities and arrests as well as increased regulatory scrutiny over the entire sector. Earlier in October, the SFC and the Hong Kong police formed a special unit to monitor cryptocurrency exchanges.
Do you think Hong Kong regulators will stiffen crypto rules even further in the future? Tell us in the comments section below.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus States Building on Bitcoin’s Lightning Network Is ‘Incredibly Complex and Hard’
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, a company that builds business-grade solutions to facilitate payments on top of the Lightning Network, shared his experience in developing on top of the Bitcoin scaling layer. Marcus stated that it is “incredibly complex and hard to build software around this protocol,” acknowledging the constraints the Lightning Network presents for builders.
Lightspark CEO David Marcus Acknowledges Lightning Network Constraints for Builders
David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark, a company that builds payments solutions on top of the Lightning Network, a second-layer scaling platform for Bitcoin, has given his opinion about the challenges that building on top of this protocol presents for companies.
Marcus, a veteran in the payments arena who was president of Paypal, head of Novi at Meta, and part of the Diem Board of Members, says Lightspark decided to build around the layer-2 protocol due to the “unique qualities” Bitcoin presents as an underlying network. However, he declared:
Building on Lightning and Bitcoin is likely at least 5x harder than building with other protocols. It’s so incredibly complex and hard to build software around this protocol.
Rigidity and Difficulty
Marcus attributes part of this difficulty to the rigidity of Bitcoin and the problems of changing its structure to include new code in its base layer, to accommodate the needs of specific solutions. On this issue, he stated:
Bitcoin layer 1 is incredibly rigid. Getting a new opcode to mainnet is almost mission impossible. Constraints are what they are.
However, instead of considering this difficulty a problem and abandoning the protocol to use other, less complicated chains, Lightspark took it as a challenge to build a payment solution that would be relevant “100 years from now.” Marcus concluded:
We recommitted ourselves to building on Bitcoin Lightning, and to doing whatever it took to realize its fullest potential. Because it’s time for the world to have a universal open protocol for payments.
Marcus is not the first to recognize the intricacies and overall difficulties of producing software around the Lightning Network. Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, CEO of Binance, also stated that including Lightning Network services on Binance’s platform was “more complicated” than it might appear, due to the utilization of on-demand invoices, different from pre-generated addresses.
Fiatjaf, a Bitcoin developer and the creator of the decentralized social protocol Nostr, also recently criticized the Lightning Network, calling it an “inelegant pile of ugly and complicated hacks.”
What do you think about David Marcus’ vision of building on top of the Lightning Network? Tell us in the comments section below.
Abra CEO Crypto Firms Route to Remittances at Scale Will Be Complex but Successful
n Abra CEO Bill Barhydt has outlined why he thinks consumer cross-border payments and remittance services continue to be something of an uphill battle for many crypto firmsn
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How Hackers Stole $1.7 Billion in Crypto in 2018 Using Complex Strategies
While 2017 was the year of crypto gains, 2018 was the year of crypto theft, according to new data. Crypto-related thefts increased roughly 260% from 2017 to 2018, largely fueled by a number of high-profile cryptocurrency exchange hacks.
Blockchain analysis also shows that the hackers behind the crypto-stealing schemes and scams, are very careful, even calculated in their approach, oftentimes waiting patiently for the right moment to begin laundering the stolen funds.
Crypto Theft Tops .7 Billion in 2018, What Will 2019 Bring?
According to a new report from leading cryptocurrency forensics provider CipherTrace, who helps exchanges, security researchers, and law enforcement better understand the intricacies of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, revealed that around .7 billion in crypto had been stolen throughout last year.
Nearly billion alone came from cryptocurrency exchange-related thefts, highlighting the impact of the 0 million Coincheck hack that set the tone for the rest of the year. In fact, the bulk of crypto exchange hacks originated in Korea and Japan, where Coincheck is located, according to CipherTrace.
Related Reading | Japan Sees Rising Crypto Theft, 0 Million Stolen in First Six Months of 2018
The remaining 5 million in stolen crypto can be attributed to crimes outside of cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Twitter crypto scams, phishing attacks, fraudulent ICOs, and Ponzi schemes.
CipherTrace also says that the .7 billion number they arrived at only represents stolen digital assets the firm was able to validate themselves, and that they have little doubt that the true number of crypto asset losses is much larger.”
Crypto Hackers Use Advanced Tactics, Carefully Calculated Strategies
While CipherTrace’s investigation was geared toward coming up with a total sum of all stolen crypto, another blockchain analysis firm focused on figuring out the who, what, where, and when related to the explosion of cryptocurrency thefts last year.
Cryptocurrency exchanges were hacked out of ~B in 2018 by professional groups whose distinct “signatures” might be the key to defending against them. Read more in our latest blog #cryptocurrency #cryptocrime https://t.co/tD84oqxQQ1 pic.twitter.com/tCnCPbKqxz
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) January 28, 2019
Chainalysis revealed in the final installment of their Crypto Crime series of blog posts, that the majority of the stolen cryptocurrency could be at the hands of just two hacking groups. The firm claims that together, the “two groups are responsible for stealing around billion to date, at least 60% of all publicly reported hacks.”
Data suggests that the two prominent hacking groups were very calculated in their money laundering strategies, often waiting an extended period of over a month before beginning to move funds through a “complex array of wallets and exchanges in an attempt to disguise the funds’ criminal origins.”
Related Reading | Google Security Expert: Crypto is Like Catnip for Cyber Criminals
“A successful laundering scheme involves ‘placing’ criminal funds into the financial system, moving them around or ‘layering’ to avoid detection, and then ‘integrating’ those funds into the real economy, usually through a business, to make them look like legitimate profit,” Chainalysis explained.
At least 64% of the stolen digital currencies makes its way to a cryptocurrency exchange at some point, which explains why there has been a spike in law enforcement related requests sent to cryptocurrency exchange in recent months.
As for why hackers are increasingly targeting crypto in their criminal activities, a lead security expert for Google says that “cryptocurrency is like catnip” for cyber criminals due “the instantaneous nature of it, the very, very low transaction fees, the frictionless nature of money moving around,” along with crypto’s “pseudonymity.”
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National Bank of Canada Pilots Blockchain to Combat Complex Processes
n Canadas sixth largest commercial bank implements blockchain, smart contracts to simplify transaction processesn
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