Bitcoin’s price on July 3, 2024, stands at ,177, with a 24-hour intraday range from ,712 to ,974. The trading volume over the past 24 hours reached .36 billion, and the market capitalization is currently at .18 trillion. Analyzing various time frames and technical indicators reveals consistent bearish signals, suggesting caution for traders. Conversely, the […]
Bitcoin News
SEC Closing Salt Lake Regional Office After Failed Legal Battle Against Crypto Firm
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced the closure of its Salt Lake Regional Office (SLRO) due to attrition and a focus on organizational efficiency. This move will reduce the number of SEC regional offices from 11 to 10. The jurisdiction for Utah, previously held by SLRO, will now be managed by the […]
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin Traders Closing More Positions As Prices Range Above $60,000
Bitcoin has been trending lower after failing to break above ,000 in early May, deflating hopes of immediate price gains post-Halving. Taking to X, one analyst shared on-chain data that paints a more nuanced picture than a simple loss of confidence in recent weeks.
Bitcoin Open Interest Remains Low: Bullish?
The analyst, pointing to CryptoQuant data, observes that leveraged traders on perpetual trading platforms like Binance appear to be closing their positions more than opening new ones. The analyst notes that the reading is at -20% at the monthly change in Open Interest.
At this level, it shows that more traders are closing more positions than opening new ones. This development suggests that most traders adopt a strategic wait-and-see, watching prices evolve.
Despite the decrease in positions opening, it’s important to note that this is not a sign of BTC’s downfall or the invalidation of a potential surge. The analyst interpreted this contraction as a strategic move by traders, who are cautiously optimistic and not exiting the market due to bearish expectations.
In a separate post, the analyst added that the Bitcoin market needs the current wave of liquidation and “negativity” for accumulating short positions. All short positions opened at spot levels bet that BTC will continue trickling lower, even breaking below ,500.
However, the more short positions there are, the higher the possibility of a “short squeeze” forming. When this happens, there will be a sudden price spike, liquidating shorts and forcing sellers to buy back into the market to prevent further damage.
BTC Inside A Trade Range: Will ,000 Fail?
Despite the potential upside hinted by on-chain data, prices remain confined within a narrow range. Last week, bulls failed to close above ,000, confirming the impressive march from May 3.
Bitcoin found resistance and is moving lower toward the psychological ,000 level. From price action, losses below this line might fast-track the collapse toward ,500 registered in early May.
Going forward, traders will closely monitor how prices evolve after the all-important Halving on April 20. Considering the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the involvement of institutions, some analysts expected prices to shoot higher immediately.
Nonetheless, this has not been the case. Prices continue to hang amid fluctuating inflows to spot ETFs, and the United States Federal Reserve is still not slashing interest rates.
GBTC’s Closing NAV Discount and Steep Fees Trigger Outflows, ETF Analyst Expects ‘More Over Time’
Last week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlit the debut of 11 diverse spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which, in their initial two days on the market, experienced a substantial .65 billion in trading volume. Concurrently, while a host of new entrants enjoyed strong inflows, Grayscale’s GBTC encountered notable outflows, coinciding with the fund’s discount to net asset value reaching its lowest point since February 2021.
Reduced NAV Discount Prompts GBTC Outflows
On Saturday, Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, shared insights on the “nine newborn” spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have impressively gathered .4 billion in cash. Balchunas observed that this surge in capital markedly outstrips the 9 million outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), leading to a net investment growth of 9 million. He further noted that these trades boasted an average premium of 20 basis points.
Following his analysis, when queried about the significant withdrawal from GBTC, Balchunas responded:
Lots of [traders] came in to play the discount closing so they [are] leaving to take profits, there’s also captive [average investors] who may have decided to stomach the tax hit in order to flee the 1.5% fee … I’d expect more [over] time.
Balchunas’ observations resonate with the recent outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), as onchain analysts noted a significant movement of 4,000 BTC, valued at 5 million, exiting GBTC’s bitcoin wallet holdings on Friday. This coincides with GBTC’s discount to its net asset value (NAV) reaching its lowest point since February 2021, a stark contrast to its prior premium status before February 23, 2021. Alongside this shift to a more normalized NAV discount, Grayscale’s ETF management fees stand out as the highest among the 11 ETFs approved last week.
Notably, seven of these funds boast management fees below 0.30%, with Bitwise’s BITB leading at a minimal 0.20% fee. Ark’s ARKB, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Blackrock’s IBIT each offer a competitive 0.25% fee, matched by Valkyrie’s BRRR and Vaneck’s HODL. Close behind is Franklin Templeton’s EZBC at 0.29% and Wisdomtree’s BTCW at 0.30%, while Invesco’s fee is slightly higher at 0.39%. Hashdex’s 0.94% fee for its DEFI fund is the only one approaching GBTC’s substantial 1.5% management fee, suggesting that the more favorable fees of these new funds could be a factor in investors’ shift away from GBTC.
Furthermore, an appealing incentive for investors in the U.S. is the temporary waiver of management fees offered by seven of the 11 newly approved spot bitcoin ETFs, allowing early investors to participate without any fees for a limited time. This is a significant change from when GBTC, traded over-the-counter (OTC), charged a 2% management fee, which was reduced in anticipation of its ETF transition. As new entrants strive to emulate Grayscale’s decade-long leadership in this domain, it’s noteworthy that GBTC still holds a formidable 618,000 BTC, dwarfing the recent inflows to these new ETFs by a long shot.
What do you think about GBTC’s outflows? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Smart Contract Tokens Solana and Avalanche Surge, Closing in on BNB and Ethereum
Recently, the smart contract platform tokens solana (SOL) and avalanche (AVAX), both considered layer one (L1) crypto assets, have been narrowing the gap with ethereum (ETH), the most prominent smart contract platform in terms of market valuation. Over the past month, solana has experienced a 42% surge, while avalanche has soared by 104%.
Solana and Avalanche Make Strong Comeback in Crypto Market
Following the collapse of the Terra blockchain and the FTX failure, SOL and AVAX suffered substantial declines against the U.S. dollar. These cryptocurrencies, once ranked among the top ten, were briefly ousted from their elite top ten status.
However, they have since reclaimed their positions among the top ten leading tokens, with SOL currently in fifth place, having overtaken XRP, and AVAX at ninth, excluding Lido’s staked ether (STETH) from the count.
Since the beginning of 2023, both SOL and AVAX have registered impressive triple-digit growth. Solana has escalated by 734% since Jan. 1, 2023, while avalanche has increased by 306% year-to-date, with 104% of this growth occurring in the last month alone.
Solana is now the closest contender to ethereum, needing an additional .04 billion to surpass BNB, the fourth-largest crypto asset. However, solana’s market capitalization remains 7.6 billion behind ethereum’s. At present, SOL is trading 68.20% below its all-time high of 9 per unit, which it reached on Nov. 6, 2021.
Similarly, AVAX is 69.6% below its peak price of 4, recorded on Nov. 21, 2021. Currently, at 2:34 p.m. (EST) SOL is priced at .59, up 13.1% in the last 24 hours, while AVAX is trading at .96, reflecting a more than 9% increase in the same period.
Among the leading smart contract platform tokens by market capitalization, SOL and AVAX hold the third and fifth positions, respectively. Over the past week, these two cryptocurrencies have outperformed all others within the top ten smart contract platform coins.
The notable resurgence of solana and avalanche underscores the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market at any given time. Despite past setbacks, both SOL and AVAX have demonstrated signifcant growth, challenging the dominance of established players like BNB, ADA, and XRP.
What do you think about solana and avalanche and their market performances? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
CME Group Dominates Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Amidst Speculations of $40K Gap Closing
Recent data indicates that CME Group maintains its top position in bitcoin futures open interest, holding .29 billion, followed closely by Binance with .65 billion. A comprehensive analysis of 14 distinct exchanges offering derivatives reveals a combined open interest totaling .74 billion as of Dec. 10, 2023.
Rising High: CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Surges and the Enigmatic K ‘CME Gap’
Continuing its dominance in bitcoin futures open interest (OI), CME Group has maintained its leading position since ascending to the top in the second week of November 2023. Back then, CME Group’s OI stood at .06 billion, surpassing Binance, which logged .87 billion. On November 10, 2023, the aggregate open interest amounted to .25 billion. Presently, these figures have significantly increased.
Coinglass data from Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, reveals that CME Group registered an open interest (OI) of .29 billion, equivalent to 120.54K BTC. In comparison, Binance recorded 105.74K BTC, or .65 billion. Bybit’s OI stands at .39 billion, while Okx reports .08 billion, Bitget at .30 billion, and Deribit at .24 billion. Overall, these figures contribute to a total of .74 billion in OI across 14 exchanges in the previous day.
In the last 24 hours, about 0.35 million was liquidated, marking a 40% decrease from the previous day’s totals. During the same period, long positions accounted for 48.67%, while short positions made up 51.33%. Even as CME Group leads the futures market, it also has a notable gap at the ,000 mark. This “futures gap” is the difference between BTC’s price at the close and reopening of CME’s market, a variance from the ongoing prices on 24/7 native crypto exchanges like Binance, Okx, Bybit, and Bitget.
There’s speculation that this gap might close, indicating a potential correction for BTC. This theory suggests that BTC’s price might realign to the level it was when the CME futures market closed. The likelihood of the CME gap filling is a subject of ongoing debate, but historical trends and analyst insights suggest a 60-80% chance of these gaps eventually closing.
What do you think about CME Group surpassing Binance in terms of bitcoin futures open interest? What are your thoughts about the K ‘CME Gap?’ Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Attorney Paints Picture of Mistakes, Not Crimes, in Closing Argument
Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer Mark Cohen gave a final argument Wednesday, portraying the FTX founder as someone who “did his best” and made mistakes but did not commit crimes.
Bankman-Fried’s Lawyer: ‘Mistakes Are Not a Crime’
Sam Bankman-Fried‘s attorney, Mark Cohen, is well-known for representing convicted sex offender Ghislaine Maxwell. This year, he is defending the former FTX chief. After a series of witnesses and testimony from Bankman-Fried himself, Cohen delivered his closing argument to the courtroom jurors.
“Mistakes are not a crime. Why does the government get to speak twice? Because they have the burden of proof,” Cohen told jurors in his closing statement. He said the government tried to turn Bankman-Fried into “some sort of monster” but had not shown criminal intent. Cohen’s closing statements were streamed on the social media platform X by Matthew Russell Lee of Inner City Press
Cohen acknowledged there was a “messy truth” to how Bankman-Fried and his cohorts ran FTX but said he was innovative in building a “legitimate business.” He portrayed the collapse of FTX as a liquidity crisis and not a Ponzi scheme.
“People suffered losses is not the question,” Cohen said. “Sam didn’t have to testify. The government was unfair. If he answered too long, they said it was too long. Same for short. If he tried to explain, they said he was being evasive. It’s heads I win, tails you lose.”
The lawyer added:
Unlike the government’s witnesses, Sam was far from polished. He couldn’t remember everything he said to Congress. No one can know that. If he’s the criminal mastermind they say he is, why did he speak to Congress?
Cohen attacked the credibility of prosecution witnesses who took plea deals, saying they shifted blame to Bankman-Fried to get sentencing reductions. He said the widespread code access and transfers between FTX and Alameda were not secret crimes but part of a young, undisciplined company trying to innovate.
The defense lawyer cited private chats and emails to contend Bankman-Fried was discussing rescues for FTX up until the end. “Ask yourself, if you’re a fraudster, why would you repay the lenders, and not just take the money and run?” Cohen asked.
In conclusion, Cohen portrayed the case as “a difference in business judgment” and not criminal behavior. He acknowledged that “some decisions turned out very poorly” but maintained that Bankman-Fried told the truth. “Sam acted in good faith, he didn’t want to defraud. Find him not guilty,” Cohen implored the jury.
What do you think about Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Closing In On This Bullish Crossover, Relief Finally Ahead?
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is closing in on a crossover that has historically proved to be bullish for the price of the crypto.
Bitcoin Short-Term And Long-Term UTXO Age Bands Approach Crossover
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC has usually observed a significant rise following the formation of such a crossover.
The relevant indicator here is the “UTXO Age Bands,” which tells us the percentage of the Bitcoin supply that each group is holding right now.
The different Age Bands denote the time period between which each UTXO (or simply, each coin) falling into said band was last moved.
For example, the 6m-12m UTXO Age Band includes the part of the BTC supply that hasn’t been transferred since six to twelve months ago.
In the context of the current topic, the Age Bands of interest are the 1m-3m and the 2y-3y groups. The first of these represents the short-term UTXOs (as they haven’t aged much yet), while the latter denotes the long-term UTXOs.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in both these Bitcoin UTXO Age Bands in the last several years:
Looks like the two metrics have been approaching each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the 1m-3m Bitcoin UTXO Age Band has been declining recently, while the 2y-3y group has been observing a rise.
If both the indicators continue going in the current trajectory, then they will soon meet and go through a crossover, where the long-term Age Band will overtake the short-term one.
The quant has also highlighted the trends that followed in the price of BTC when such a pattern previously formed during the past few years.
It seems like whenever this kind of crossover has taken place for the crypto, the price has gone onto see a significant rise in the long term.
The significance of this cross is that it represents a shift in supply from short-term buyers (who are often weak hands) to the long-term holders (strong hands).
It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin UTXO Age Bands will go on and complete the cross, and if the same trend as in history will follow now as well.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around .5k, down 1% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 13% in value.
The price of the coin seems to have recovered back above .5k during the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Why Closing Out The Year Below $50,000 Could Be Bad For Bitcoin
A lot of predictions had put the price of bitcoin at 0,000 by the end of the year and although there are still some weeks left to go, it does not look like these predictions will come to pass. Bitcoin has however maintained a bullish trend despite price crashes and massive liquidations rocking the digital asset in recent times.
Since analysts, and the crypto market in general, has been so focused on the bullish future of the asset, there has not been much attention paid to a low for the year. As the end of 2021 rolls around, it is important to not only look at the bullish end-of-year predictions but also how the cryptocurrency might be affected depending on the price bitcoin closes at.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Open Interest Takes Second Largest Dump Of 2021
Crypto analyst Justin Bennett addresses this in his latest issue of the weekly newsletter. Bennett maps out the outlook for the digital asset, as well as the implications of bitcoin closing out the year below ,000.
Options Contracts Becoming Worthless
Some of the bitcoin options contracts are set to expire at the end of the year and the profitability of these options contracts depend greatly on what price BTC is when they expire. Since the crash, bitcoin has struggled to maintain its value above ,000 and this has not been good for the options contracts. Bennett notes that a close below ,000 would see all of these contracts expire worthless, playing into what he called the “max pain theory”.
The crypto analyst is not particularly confident in the digital asset’s ability to finish the year above ,000. He expressed that he expects the consolidation in larger cap cryptocurrencies to continue through the last month of the year.
Bennett however notes that there is a wide range for bitcoin due to the December 4th candle. This means that anywhere between ,000 and ,000 is possible going forward, providing a massive margin for the digital asset.
BTC price continues downtrend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Volume Is Concerning
Bennett also points to the lack of volume in the cryptocurrency. One thing is to start a rally or a breakout, but the other thing is to get enough volume to match that breakout. Otherwise, a rally would not be successful.
Related Reading | Number Of Bitcoin Lightning Network Nodes Jumps 23% In Three Months
“If we’re to see Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market breakout later this month or even January, we need to see volume to match the price increase,” said Bennett. “Without volume, any rally or even breakout is more likely to fail.”
As bitcoin continues to consolidate following a ,000 test, the market is quietly waiting for more institutional money to pump into the market. Currently, Bennett has put the bitcoin key support at ,000. “Below that is the April trend line near ,000,” Bennett notes.
Featured image from Bitcoin News, chart from TradingView.com
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Infinite Launch – The Next Disruptive Launchpad Listing On Kucoin After Closing $2.2M Fundraising Rounds
Infinite Launch is a next-generation cross-chain gateway for top Decentralized Finance(DeFi) and Non-Fungible token(NFT) projects with its unique allocation mechanism. The platform’s goal is to provide investors with access to the allocation pool regardless of the amount.
Infinite Launch has raised .2 million in funding from reputable investors, including IBA, Everse Capital, Lotus Capital, and Phoenix Newtribe. By combining industry expertise with their extensive strategic network, these investors provide Infinite Launch with values that go far beyond money. In addition, Infinite Launch intends to raise capital to fund all future projects on the Launchpad platform.
Infinite Launch has developed a new system known as the Diamond-hand Mechanism, which aids in the creation of long-term investors for DeFi and NFT projects as well as the minimization of the pump and dump attempts.
The Diamond-hand mechanism encourages token holders to lock their tokens for a longer period, resulting in a guaranteed slot for allocation. Infinite Launch platform aims to prevent small investors from reaping a sufficient profit from launchpad projects after IDO. Big investors frequently dump the token upon listing.
“We created an innovative system to address a major pain point for small investors when investing in a launchpad project. Small investors lack the financial resources to obtain a rank and earn guaranteed allocation, so they must rely on luck to obtain a slot for the IDO.” said Henry V, Co-founder of Infinite Launch.
It is also worth noting that Infinite Launch will be listed on Kucoin after IDO, one of the largest Centralized Exchanges in the crypto space. It will be listed on KuCoin on November 25th, 2021 at 11:00 AM UTC.
Infinite Launch appears to be positioned as one of the leading IDO launchpads. This Launchpad looks promising based on the platform’s goals and vision and is set to explode.