The stock market has been caught within an intense uptrend over the past couple of days while Bitcoin consolidates within the upper-,000 region.
The ongoing equities rally has come about due to renewed hopes of the economy seeing a “V-shaped” recovery due to most countries across the globe easing their pandemic-related lockdowns.
Recent employment data within the US also gave the markets a significant boost, although the accuracy of this data has been disputed.
Analysts don’t believe that the stock market will be able to see too much further momentum, as one analyst is noting that equities are showing signs of peaking.
If it does reverse its newfound uptrend and declines in the near-term, one trader believes that this could have grave implications for where Bitcoin trends next.
US Stock Market Shows Signs of Peaking as Bitcoin Consolidates
Bitcoin and the equities market formed an incredibly strong correlation throughout late-February and March, with the traditional market’s plunge in mid-March sending the benchmark cryptocurrency spiraling down to lows of ,800.
Bitcoin and traditional assets also recovered in tandem, although BTC’s rebound allowed it to post gains that were a multiple of those seen by the benchmark indices.
This correlation has waned in the time since, but the market’s next major trend should provide insight into whether or not the correlation has been permanently broken.
One analyst recently explained that he does believe that equities are close to reaching their peak, with the decline from here potentially proving to be brutal for bulls.
“I think the stock market is reaching a top here soon. Do we close that gap? Maybe… What I’m most interested in is what happens to BTC if stocks were to make a top and see a large correction. Pressure is on,” he noted while pointing to the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average seen below.
Image Courtesy of Bitcoin Jack
After seeing a massive upswing yesterday, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are both trading down just under 1% today.
BTC Could Be Gravely Impacted by Next Decline
Bitcoin has yet to confirm its status as a non-correlated asset, as its recent uptrend has come about in tandem with that of most other major markets.
The same analyst who noted that he is anticipating equities to see a sharp decline also believes that Bitcoin could see another bout of capitulation if his bearish outlook plays out.
“It’s been my theory since pre-capitulation that BTC would dip with the stock market, as the order flow suggested a huge amount of bulls trapped before the liq crash and then decouple, but BTC still hasn’t proven itself to be risk-off,” he explained.
How Bitcoin reacts to the stock market’s volatility in the weeks ahead could provide significant insight into whether or not it is truly a risk-off asset.
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Textbook Wyckoff Analysis Shows Bitcoin Is About to See a Brutal Drop to $7,000s
Since plunging as low as ,600 earlier this week, Bitcoin has mounted a strong comeback that took prices as high as ,900 on June 4th and 5th.
The more than 10% bounce has convinced many traders of the bull case, hence why funding on futures exchanges remains positive, showing longs are more aggressive than shorts. Yet analysts are starting to fear that the rally to ,900 is just noise in a bearish medium-term trend.
Related Reading: No, Bitcoin Forming a Weekly TD Sequential “9” Doesn’t Kill the Bull Trend
Bitcoin Is Trading In a Wyckoff Distribution, Analysts Assert
Analyst Adam Li noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action from April to today looks similar to a schematic laid out by prominent technical analyst Richard Wyckoff.
Over his career, he made a number of schematics that he saw appear on the charts of assets time and time again. They are separated into two types: the bullish Wyckoff Accumulations and the bearish Wyckoff Distributions.
According to Li’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price action looks like the start of a Wyckoff Distribution. Should the pattern play out in full, the cryptocurrency will plunge to the ,000s by September.
Wyckoff Distribution chart shared by Adam Li, a cryptocurrency trader. A Wyckoff Distribution is a bearish pattern.
Li isn’t the only analyst currently suggesting Bitcoin is trading like an asset going through a Wyckoff Distribution.
A prominent pseudonymous trader shared that while there are a number of ways you can interpret the recent price action, the volume is showing signs of distribution:
“Volume-wise I can’t look past distribution up here given the reaction to the high sweep. There are very few re-accumulation ranges that we would expect to see that contain a move above the range which was so strongly rejected. Typically in a re-accumulation structure this move would hold, not come back inside. That’s usually one of our first signs of distribution,” the analyst wrote in reference to this week’s attempted (and failed) breakout past ,500.
Technical Trends Corroborate Bear
Technical indicators corroborate the bearish charts.
A trader shared at the end of May that BTC’s weekly chart is printing four clear signs that the asset is rolling over to the downside. They are as follows:
The Tom Demark Sequential, an indicator that prints “9” signals at or near important points in an asset’s trend, just printed a “9.”
Hidden bearish divergences are forming between the Klinger trend indicator and the price.
Bitcoin formed a “Heikin-Ashi spinning top” pattern last week, which suggests a reversal of the bull trend.
The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks momentum has seen a bearish cross for the first time since February.
Chart from Crypto Hamster (@CryptoHamsterIO on Twitter).
Adding to this, John Bollinger, the prominent technical analysis behind the Bollinger Bands indicator, recently wrote:
“The is a Head Fake at the upper Bollinger Band for $btcusd, time to be cautious or short.”
Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: 0M of Bitcoin Liquidated, Ethereum DeFi Adoption Limited, Bloomberg Is Bullish
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Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt,
Textbook Wyckoff Analysis Shows Bitcoin Is About to See a Brutal Drop to ,000s
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Analyst Who Called Bitcoin Drop to $3,000s Expects Another Brutal Bear Market
Bitcoin has rallied strongly since the ,700 lows established in March. From the bottom of the crash, the cryptocurrency is now up just shy of 150%.
Although this upswing has convinced many in the industry that the bear market is over, some beg to differ. Prominent analysts and commentators say that the cryptocurrency has a chance at retesting the ,000s.
Backing this prediction, they cite simple technical factors and the looming specter of a deeper recession in the global economy.
Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Satoshi Isn’t Dumping His BTC, China ‘Bans’ Cryptocurrency Mining
Bitcoin Poised to Plunge Towards ,000s
Earlier this year, a prominent trader called for Bitcoin to fall to the ,000s and for XRP to reach .11. At the time, this call was laughed off, as the cryptocurrency market was surging higher.
The trader has since been proven correct as Bitcoin, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies took a nosedive in March due to a worsening global economy.
While BTC has since recovered, the same trader still expects Bitcoin to correct even lower.
He indicated in the chart below that he still sees a scenario where the leading crypto falls to ,000, and maybe even as low as ,000.
Chart from il Capo of Crypto
The calls for an extension to the Bitcoin bear market have been echoed by Ross Ulbricht.
Ulbricht is a very early cryptocurrency adopter that is known for running the Silk Road marketplace.
He explained in a Medium post titled “Bitcoin by Ross #9: A Strong Signal for Lower Prices” that Elliot Wave analysis suggests BTC is in the second phase of a multi-year bear market.
Here's my latest #BitcoinByRoss post: A Strong Signal for Lower Prices.https://t.co/2VxoyT28NZ
— Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) April 11, 2020
Elliot Wave is a form of technical analysis that indicates markets move in predictable wave phases due to investor psychology.
Ulbricht, who is also an early trader according to some accounts, suggested that Bitcoin could return to the ,000s or even ,000s by June or July, or well into 2021.
Related Reading: The Million Bitcoin Pizza Story Has an Unexpected Silver Lining
The Rally on the Other Side Will Be Huge
Despite the expectations from prominent market participants of downside, the consensus is that the rally on the other side will be large.
Ulbricht, for instance, wrote that the sky is the limit for Bitcoin in the long run:
“I am still bullish long-term… The point is — long term — the sky is the limit. The remainder of wave II and the start of wave III will seem like insignificant fluctuations by the time wave III is under way. Decades from now, anything below ,000 will seem cheap.”
There are fundamental reasons analysts have to be this optimistic.
Tuur Demeester, the founding partner of Adamant Capital, recently explained that the money-printing by governments is making ,000 Bitcoin possible.
The idea goes that with there more fiat money in the system than ever before, BTC stands to greatly benefit due to its scarcity.
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There’s a Brutal Twist Behind $1 Million Bitcoin Price Predictions
If you told an early Bitcoin adopter ten years ago that the cryptocurrency would one day hit million, they would’ve laughed. Ten years ago, a single coin traded for less than .00; at times, it traded for a price well under a cent.
But times have changed. Now, instead of getting laughed at, those predicting the leading cryptocurrency will hit seven digits are applauded. It’s become a common sentiment in the Bitcoin market that the asset will eventually rocket higher, leaving all other assets in its wake.
There is evidence to back these forecasts up, but one commentator recently reminded Bitcoin investors that the cryptocurrency hitting seven digits would come with serious societal consequences.
Bitcoin Hitting Million Won’t Be Easy
As the global macroeconomic outlook has grown increasingly dire over the past few weeks, with the IMF going as far as to claim the ongoing recession is the worst since the Great Depression, calls for Bitcoin to skyrocket have increased.
Image courtesy of National Post
Contradictory as it may sound, the sentiment goes that as the ongoing economic crisis worsens, the more flaws in the monetary system that is the basis of modern society will be revealed, proving Bitcoin’s bull case.
Prominent investors, such as one of the earliest Facebook executives, Chamath Palihapitiya, say that the crisis will be such a boon for the cryptocurrency that it could trade at a price of millions in the coming years.
While potentially true, it’s a dangerous sentiment, according to one trader.
Ceteris Paribus, an industry investor, recently remarked that he doesn’t “even know if he wants” a million Bitcoin to happen in the coming few years.
The trader explained that from how he sees it, it would require a “catastrophic collapse of the current monetary system” for transpire, whereas fiat currencies will lose all their value within a short period of time, resulting in mass societal discourse.
Ceteris Paribus explained that for Bitcoin to truly hit the purchasing power of million — over 13,000% higher than the current market price — there will be an unpleasant transition “if it comes this quickly.”
Even Still, It’s a Popular Sentiment
Despite the issues that could result in a million Bitcoin price, that hasn’t stopped the topic from being promoted by serious analysts in a serious manner. Simply put, there is legitimate evidence to suggest a shocking shift to a new monetary standard will transpire.
Ray Dalio, co-head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, put it best in a recent interview: there will be a “new world order” after this crisis.
Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and the current CEO of Real Vision, explained that from how he sees it, the ongoing crisis is showing that there’s a bona fire risk that there will be a “failure of our very system of money” or at least a collapse of the “current financial architecture.”
Bitcoin, Pal wrote in a recent research note, is the solution due to its position as the likely “future of our entire medium of exchange system, and of money itself and the platform on which it operates.”
Chart courtesy of Raoul Pal at Global Macro Investor
From how Pal put it, the risk that traditional financial systems will collapse is unavoidable, hence his assertion that Bitcoin will rally so far and so fast, even if that comes at the cost of discourse in society.
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Historically Accurate TD9 Indicator Says XRP is Set to Face Brutal Pullback
XRP, the third-largest ranked cryptocurrency by market cap, may face continued underperformance compared to the rest of the crypto space, as the historically accurate TD Sequential indicator has triggered a signal on the asset’s daily charts.
However, a conflicting signal triggered earlier this month makes predicting the trend ahead a bit more confusing given how accurate the indicator has been in the past.
TD9 Sell Signal Triggered on XRP, Suggests Brutal Pullback Against BTC
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other altcoins like Tezos and Chainlink have all had strong 2020 performances, despite the shocking selloff in mid-March that eliminated most of the year’s gains thus far.
Related Reading | Ripple Poised to Triple By Q4 2020 After XRP Forms Classic Bottom
But XRP, the cryptocurrency often referred to as Ripple, continues to have a stagnant return on investment for holders of the altcoin, despite the asset’s price charts regularly suggesting that the downtrend is coming to an end and an explosive move is imminent.
The third-highest ranked cryptocurrency by market cap has just triggered a “TD9” sell signal on the TD Sequential indicator, created by market timing guru Thomas Demark.
The highly accurate indicator is used throughout all financial markets to proficiently time tops and bottoms and has been used in cryptocurrencies with much success.
The same signal recently marked Bitcoin’s top on daily timeframes, and prior to that, nailed the top of the early 2020 rally while the cryptocurrency was still trading well above ,000. An over ,000 drop followed.
The successful calls date all the way back to Bitcoin’s all-time high at ,000.
Indicator Provides Conflicting Signals Across Varying Timeframes
With how accurate the indicator is at calling tops and bottoms, what happens in a situation where the indicator gives a positive buy signal on higher timeframes but issues a sell signal on smaller ones?
The latest signal is a TD 9 sell on XRP/BTC daily price charts, however, as the new month started, the candle open for April 2020 triggered a TD 9 “buy” signal on monthly timeframes for the cryptocurrency asset.
The two conflicting signals are confusing, as one points to downside ahead, while the other suggests a strong sustained reversal may be underway.
Oftentimes, it’s the largest timeframes that dictate the overall trend, so the sell signal on the daily timeframe could suggest that there’s one more brutal pullback ahead before the asset begins to stage a strong recovery.
Related Reading | XRP on Life Support: Rebound Soon or Risk Further Drop to 5 Cents
XRP is down over 90% on the USD trading pair from its all-time high of over .50 per token, but the asset has just as far to climb on the BTC pair.
The asset is currently trading at roughly 2700 sats, having fallen from a high of over 23000 sats.
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What’s Next For Bitcoin After Brutal Rejection At Key $7,000 Price Point?
Just two hours ago, Bitcoin started to rally after trading at ,700 for most of Saturday morning and afternoon, rallying as high as ,020 in a vertical move that brought the asset 4%. But, as fast as the cryptocurrency rallied, it was rejected, returning to where it began just minutes later — a loss for bulls hoping BTC could establish a higher high on the daily chart.
Joe McCann — a noted crypto trader and an AI/Cloud specialist at Microsoft — remarked that the recent explosive move is most likely related to a futures short squeeze caused by negative funding rates on BitMEX:
“Funding rate continues to maintain its negativity yet price won’t go down. If bulls keep this up there will be an epic squeeze coming… There’s the squeeze.”
With the surge’s gains having since been reverted, what are analysts thinking comes next for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market?
Analysts Are Growing Bullish On Bitcoin
Surprisingly, despite the strong rejection at the key ,000 technical resistance, analysts are bullish about the short-term to medium-term prospects of the leading cryptocurrency.
According to a Bloomberg report published April 3rd, Bitcoin recently pushed above a key technical resistance, allowing the DVAN Buying and Selling Pressure Gauge to print a “positive divergence and a buy signal.”
The last time this indicator printed a buy signal was at the start of the year, which preceded Bitcoin’s rally from ,000 to ,500 within 50 days’ time.
Furthermore, prominent crypto trader TraderSmokey recently noted that Bitcoin has passed above the 12-hour Kumo cloud, the central aspect of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which suggests an uptrend could be forming.
Not Everyone Is Convinced
Unfortunately, not everyone is convinced: a well-known trader remarked that looking through the perspective of Elliot Wave analysis, it still seems somewhat bearish. He shared on April 3rd:
“[T]heres [sic] so many different ways you could count BTC here: either wxy, larger triangle, larger flat, I’m not too sure, the one thing that does stick out is the series of 3 wave moves and lack of 5 wave motives. [F]or this reason, I think its still too early to call a bottom.”
His sentiment was corroborated by other Elliot Wave-focused analysts, who explained that Bitcoin’s recent rally on declining volume looks “corrective,” suggesting a reversion lower is growing more and more likely as time elapses.
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Mounting Resistance Signals Ethereum Could Soon See Brutal Selloff
Bitcoin and the crypto market have been firmly caught in the throes of immense volatility over the past several days and weeks, with Bitcoin’s sharp swings leading altcoins like Ethereum to follow suit and incur some notable volatility.
Ethereum, which recently experienced a strong upswing, has erased a portion of these recent gains, and is now entering what appears to be a bout of sideways trading.
One analyst is noting that ETH was able to tap its key high-time-frame resistance at 0 in the course of its recent rally, with its firm rejection here being a grave sign of what’s to come next.
Ethereum Sheds Some of Its Recent Gains as Crypto Market Enters Consolidation Phase
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading down just under 7% at its current price of 2, which marks a notable decline from daily highs of over 0 that were set at the peak of the crypto’s recent upswing.
This rally first began on Thursday afternoon and marked a resolution to the extended bout of sideways trading around 0 that the cryptocurrency has been caught within for multiple days earlier this week.
After posting an upwards break of this consolidation period, ETH rallied as high as 3 in tandem with Bitcoin’s climb to highs of ,900, with this movement leading the crypto into a strong resistance level that has since led it to decline further.
It now seems as though Ethereum is entering what could be another bout of sideways trading as it ranges between 0 and 5.
ETH Could See Brutal Selloff Following Recent Rejection
Crypto Michaël – a prominent cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter – has been long noting that he was eyeing a movement up to ETH’s key high-time-frame resistance levels at roughly 0 and 0.
Because it was rejected at 0 during the course of its recent uptrend, it does appear that a brutal decline to its current support at around 0 could be imminent.
“Ethereum: Also expecting to see more support tests on this one. Rallied towards the 2-153 target beautifully. Bounced on 0 zone and instantly rejected 5. Might see a rally to 0-144, but expecting to see 3-107 after. Bias changes by break and flip 0-143.”
$ETH #ETHEREUM
Also expecting to see more support tests on this one. Rallied towards the 2-153 target beautifully.
Bounced on 0 zone and instantly rejected 5.
Might see a rally to 0-144, but expecting to see 3-107 after.
Bias changes by break and flip 0-143. pic.twitter.com/Jq3H6VA0Sp
— Crypto Michaël (@CryptoMichNL) March 21, 2020
Unless Bitcoin incurs a notable upwards movement in the near-term that also sends ETH rallying higher, it is probable that the cryptocurrency will soon see some further downside.
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Brutal 25% Bitcoin Crash Liquidates $0.5 Billion In BitMEX Longs
When I woke up just minutes ago and saw the price of Bitcoin, I thought someone had pulled a joke on me; never in a hundred years did I think BTC was going to move that fast.
For those who have been living under a rock or sleeping as I have, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen under ,000 for the first time since May of last year, plunging ,000 in minutes earlier this hour.
As a result, per data from Skew.com, 0 million worth of BitMEX longs were liquidated in a single hour, wiping out lots of traders across the industry; it isn’t clear how much was liquidated across other trading pairs.
It appears that like myself, few expected Bitcoin to move so far so fast. But, at the very least, longs aren’t overleveraged anymore…
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Analyst Who Called Bitcoin’s Brutal Crash to $7,500 Thinks This is Next
It’s not a secret that Bitcoin hasn’t done well over the past few days and weeks; since the weekend’s ,200 peak, the cryptocurrency has lost nearly 18%, and since the ,600 peak in February, BTC has shed over 25%. In the process of this brutal move, hundreds of millions worth of leveraged positions have been liquidated.
Furthermore, with a harrowing macro outlook and Bitcoin seemingly becoming correlated with the stock market, some have been wondering if BTC could enter back into a bear market. One analyst, in fact, warned of a potential return to ,000.
Despite these fears, many are staying optimistic. In fact, the trader who called the return to ,500 when investors were by and large expecting a further rally above ,000 recently floated the scenario that BTC is in the midst of bottoming.
Related Reading: Top Macro Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Has Crashed 17% Since ,200
Accurate Analyst Floats Idea That Bitcoin Is Bottoming
When BTC was floating above ,000 near the end of February, Nik Yaremchuk, analyst at Adaptive Capital (a crypto hedge fund), floated the below scenario, calling for the leading cryptocurrency to retrace to ,500, which then would’ve been a drop of around 20%.
$BTC: .5k… do you hear me? pic.twitter.com/QAENWVEcMf
— Nik (@truenomic) February 25, 2020
While many actually unfollowed him for making this prediction, today he was proven right (effectively right anyway) when BTC hit ,590, bouncing just a bit higher than his targeted price.
Yaremchuk now predicts that Bitcoin may actually be bottoming, writing in a tweet published just an hour ago as of the time of this article’s writing that the cryptocurrency is potentially forming a textbook bottom as defined by the studies of Richard Wyckoff, a historic technical analysis expert.
The cryptocurrency following the textbook scenario will see it move sideways here, briefly dip to establish a new low around ,500, then rally to break out of the accumulation range at ,200.
I think there will be a sideway here, then we will get another low and then after that we will break ,200. BTW, look at the Wyckoff scenario. Perhaps this will not be a new low, just a sideway.$BTC pic.twitter.com/ElUHTgv6Ga
— Nik (@truenomic) March 11, 2020
This is important as a similar Wyckoff Accumulation pattern was found at the bottom in December and at the start of January. While this pattern isn’t of the same size (meaning across the same time frame), BTC completing this pattern may set the stage for a stronger surge towards ,500.
The Adaptive Capital analyst isn’t the only prominent trader to have expressed bullishness about Bitcoin’s price at current.
Analyst JB recently noted that there is a confluence of technical analysis signs suggesting Bitcoin could soon see some strength:
The price of the cryptocurrency has bounced cleanly off the key ,700 support level, printing a number of wicks under that level, suggesting there remains buying interest.
#Bitcoin 1D setup: Support level, OTE long zone, VP gap hit, Willy over-sold and potential MACD bull divergence. pic.twitter.com/3020sXqnUj
— jb (@blackswan0815) March 11, 2020
BTC hit a volume profile gap, bouncing off it.
The “Willy” indicator is oversold, which last took place near the ,400 bottom in December, then once before prior to the 40% “China pump” seen in October.
Bitcoin is printing a potential divergence with the one-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
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Why a Crazy Profitable Bitcoin Whale is Warning of a Brutal Crash
It seems that Bitcoin bears are finally getting some time to shine. After the 4% flash crash and 3% flash recovery seen earlier today, BTC continued to trend lower, pushing to ,800 as of the time of this article’s writing.
While already bad enough for those who expected Bitcoin to embark on a relentless rally higher, a prominent investor — one could call him a “whale,” someone with an extreme amount of BTC in their possession — is convinced that a bigger crash could be on the horizon for one reason.
Related Reading: The Sky’s the Limit for Ripple’s XRP as Price Busts Past 2 Key Resistances
Bitfinex’s Biggest Whale J0e007 Warns of Brutal Bitcoin Bomb
Over the past few months, J0e007 (Joe) has become one of the most prominent members of the Bitcoin trading community, bagging insane profits month over month.
Per data from said Bitfinex leaderboard, which only contains traders that have explicitly given their consent, Joe took .4 million worth of profits in December 2019 and nearly million in the last month alone, beating everyone else named on that leaderboard.
It should come as no surprise, then, that when he talks, people listen.
Just recently, responding to crypto trader Walter Wyckoff, Joe wrote that the price of all cryptocurrencies could soon be in for a crash so big that the “whole crypto space is essentially wiped out,” not just a “healthy retracement” as some expect.
Healthy retracement? Without fiat in the system? How about crashing so that the whole crypto space is essentially wiped out?
— Joe007 [I identify as hunting dolphin] (@J0E007) February 10, 2020
His strong warning that Bitcoin and the crypto market could soon sustain a gargantuan crash comes shortly after he said that “I’ll believe it when I see the fiat inflows” in response to a comment from a netizen asking him about the ongoing bull trend. This comment suggests that he isn’t seeing the market data to back Bitcoin’s 50% rally in the past 50-odd days.
He affirmed this further down in the same Twitter thread, noting that the Tether’s flatlining market capitalization is “hard to explain from a position that we’re in the middle of a new bull market” and that Grayscale’s inflow data doesn’t convince him there is enough demand to absorb the mined supply.
Indicators Signal Caution for Crypto Market
It isn’t only Joe who is signaling for investors to be cautious.
According to a recent analysis shared by economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger, Bitcoin printing a funding rate of above 0.12% (equates to a crazy 131% when annualized) has historically been a precursor to relatively large drops. More specifically, every time the aforementioned funding rate was seen, Bitcoin dropped an average of 7% in the five days that followed.
A rate of 0.12% was seen late last week, meaning a drop of around 7% from ,700 (where the high funding was seen) could be sustained in the coming days.
Not to mention, Thomas Thorntown of Hedge Fund Telemetry recently pointed out that the Demark Sequential Countdown indicator, which called Bitcoin’s ,400 bottom, is printing a potential sell candle, meaning investors should be cautious.
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