Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst has reaffirmed his prediction of a July 2 launch date for U.S. spot ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after observing a surge in amended S-1 (registration statement) filings on Friday. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler has indicated that spot ether ETFs will launch this summer, pending the SEC’s […]
Bitcoin News
Bloomberg Analyst Now Expects Spot Ethereum ETFs to Launch on July 2
Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst has updated his spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) prediction. “We are moving up our over/under date for the launch of spot ether ETF to July 2nd,” he said. This revision follows light comments from the SEC Staff on issuers’ S-1 filings. The analyst believes there is a decent chance the SEC […]
Bitcoin News
Bloomberg Strategist Sees Bitcoin as Global Alternative Currency — Warns Stock Market Drawdown Could Impact BTC
Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, says bitcoin is “becoming an alternative currency on a global basis,” noting that “The world’s going towards intangible assets and bitcoin is the most significant in cryptos.” However, the strategist warned that as bitcoin’s price approaches ,000, a key test for the cryptocurrency may come “when the U.S. […]
Bitcoin News
Revised Forecast: Bloomberg Analyst Cuts Probability Of Bitcoin Spot ETF Rejection To 5%
Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denying the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest forecast comes as crypto enthusiasts worldwide anticipate a wide-scale approval of various Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.
Why The Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Appears Nearly Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In
In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on their application.
However, in a recent X post on January 6, Balchunas raised the probability of this greenlight to an astounding 95% after declaring that there was only a 5% probability the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the coming days.
Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
This new prediction is based on the implausibility of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios starting with ARK/21 shares spontaneously withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he claimed to be highly unlikely.
Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, resulting in a drawn-out court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart believes the SEC would rather avoid, especially following its recent loud legal loss against Grayscale investment.
The final event that the Bloomberg analyst believes could prevent the clearance of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, another scenario that appears remotely possible.
The D-Day Approaches
The importance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid to the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around its final deadline date for an SEC response, which is the earliest of the bunch. Now, it is believed that the SEC will rather approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once regardless of their respective final deadline date in a similar fashion as it did with Ether-futures ETFs in August.
This belief is backed by the discussions between the US regulator and various applicants in the last few weeks, leading to amendments in respective proposals, which indicates the preparation of an incoming approval.
At the time of writing, the set date of expectation remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts highly enthusiastic about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at ,050, having gained by 4.50% in the last week.
Countdown To Bitcoin ETF 2024 Decision: Traders Employ Hedging Tactics, Bloomberg Unveils
As the long-awaited deadline for a positive or negative decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, Bloomberg reports that the BTC options market is seeing increased hedging activity as traders prepare for a crucial decision on January 10th.
The report indicates a surge in open interest for put options expiring on Jan. 12, suggesting that market participants are taking steps to mitigate potential losses in the event of a negative verdict by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding these index funds holding the cryptocurrency.
Market Readies For Bitcoin ETF Verdict
The Bloomberg report highlights that the open interest for put options, which allow holders to sell Bitcoin, has seen a significant increase for contracts expiring on January 12.
This surge in open interest has resulted in a higher put-to-call ratio for these specific options compared to contracts with expiration dates further out from the January 10 deadline.
As seen in the chart below, the most prominent strike prices for the put contracts are ,000, ,000, and ,000, respectively, indicating that put holders could exercise their options to minimize losses in case of a negative market reaction to the SEC decision.
The put-to-call ratio, considered a measure of overall market sentiment, stands at 0.67 for the January 12 options contracts, indicating a more cautious approach among traders.
Ryan Kim, head of derivatives at FalconX, suggests that leveraged/speculative traders are employing Bitcoin put options to protect their leveraged longs, anticipating significant price movements in either direction.
The higher put-call ratio for January 12 options further reflects the market’s desire for protection against a potential negative decision.
The surge in open interest for put options expiring on January 12 indicates a growing need for protection in case of an unfavorable ruling. While Bitcoin’s rally has softened the impact of its 2022 decline, market expectations for ETF approval may already be priced in, posing potential risks for the market.
BTC’s Price Resistance And Potential Dip
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rally this year, with expectations for ETF approval driving its price up by more than 60% since mid-October.
However, the Bloomberg report suggests that the surge in demand for the anticipated ETFs may already be factored into the token’s price, potentially exposing the market to a “sell the news” scenario in the second week of January.
Furthermore, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto asset trading firm, predicts topside resistance for Bitcoin in the range of ,000 to ,500 and a possible retracement to ,000 levels before the uptrend resumes.
Bitcoin is currently trading at ,400, experiencing a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Over the past 14 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a sideways price movement with a slight decrease of 0.4%.
Given Bitcoin’s well-known volatility, it remains uncertain how the market will react as the looming decision and potential catalysts draw near, and how these factors will impact its price dynamics.
However, the upcoming decision is not the sole catalyst that can potentially drive Bitcoin’s price in 2024. The cryptocurrency is also anticipated to experience a significant catalyst in April 2024, known as the halving event.
This event has historically resulted in an upward surge in Bitcoin’s price, and it is predicted to propel the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) of ,000 throughout the upcoming year.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bloomberg Experts Forecast Timeline For Spot Ethereum ETF Approval
The journey towards the approval of an Ethereum ETF in the United States has seen a new development yesterday as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced a delay in the decision for Grayscale’s Ethereum trust conversion into a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). The SEC has stated the need for an extended period to evaluate the proposed rule change, pushing the new deadline Grayscale to January 25, 2024.
In its reasoning, the SEC has reiterated, “The commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action on the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein.” Notably, the delay comes at a time where the US agency is working with now 13 spot Bitcoin ETF applicants on presumably the final amendments before a January 10 approval.
Timeline For A Spot Ethereum ETF Approval
Despite the latest delay, the crypto community remains optimistic about the future of spot Ethereum ETFs. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has suggested that delays are par for the course, tweeting, “Update: As expected Grayscale’s Ethereum trust filing just got delayed. It was due by 12/6/23 so this is completely normal.”
Seyffart also shared a table of all seven spot Ethereum ETF applicants: VanEck, 21Shares & ARK, Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco & Galaxy, BlackRock, Fidelity and their deadlines. He further hinted at potential approvals by mid-2024, responding to criticisms from Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, with “Unfortunately I think you’re gonna be really upset by June of next year.”
In response to queries about the probability of an Ethereum ETF approval following a Bitcoin ETF, Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg has indicated that the first filers, Ark and VanEck, have strong odds of approval by their final deadline on May 23, 2024, as they are expected to use the same mechanics as spot Bitcoin ETFs, and due to the fact that Ether futures have already received the green light from the US SEC.
Queried about for the odd of a spot Ethereum ETF approval, he remarked, “Not formally yet, but final deadline for the first filers Ark and VanEck is May 23rd so strong odds they approved by then given they’d be using same design as btc etfs and ether futures were Ok’d.”
The Next Deadlines
The table by Seyffart shows that the next Ethereum ETF deadlines are from December 23 to 26 for VanEck, Ark Invest and Invesco & Galaxy, followed by Hashdex on January 1. Since a spot Bitcoin ETF is very unlikely to be approved by then, delays by the SEC are more than likely for this batch of filings.
Both iShares by BlackRock and the Fidelity Ethereum Fund have their next deadlines on January 25 and January 21, 2024 respectively. These dates are crucial as they could involve either an extension, a request for more information, or a final decision.
But things only get really tense towards the final deadlines for all Ethereum ETF filers, as outlined by both Bloomberg ETF experts. With VanEck poised for May 23, 2024, and ARK Invest for May 24, 2024 and other notable filers like Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF and Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust Conversion (ETHE) scheduled for decisions by May 30, 2024, and June 18, 2024, respectively, the timeline for potential approvals is taking shape.
At press time, ETH traded at ,271.
Bloomberg Expects Bitcoin Price To Surpass $500,000 In Upcoming Crypto Super Cycle
In a recent Bloomberg report, it has been suggested that the rise of Bitcoin price to over ,000 is just the beginning of a new crypto super cycle that will push the world’s largest cryptocurrency to over 0,000.
According to Bloomberg, proponents of this theory argue that Bitcoin represents a new monetary order that is captivating Wall Street and fueling a “palpable sense of euphoria” within the digital asset community.
Bitcoin Price Potential Soars
The remarkable performance of the Bitcoin price in recent months took many by surprise, as the cryptocurrency posted three consecutive monthly increases, including another 11 percent in December alone.
The enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin’s price rally has led to optimistic predictions of further gains, often based on intuition or technical analysis.
The cryptocurrency has experienced a significant price revival in 2023, with its value surging over 150% thus far. Market observers attribute this surge to growing anticipation of a potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for trading in the United States.
Per the report, the prospect of an ETF has led to jubilation within the industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggests that “Bitcoin may be the key to extending Western civilization.” Forecasts regarding the future price of Bitcoin have ranged from ,000 in the immediate term to above 0,000.
Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., cautions about the rapidly changing sentiment in the asset class, highlighting the importance of the liquidity influx caused by the pandemic in driving Bitcoin’s strong rally in 2020 and 2021.
Maley suggests that without a similar liquidity injection, some of the optimistic predictions surrounding Bitcoin’s future value may be unrealistic.
The long-awaited launch of a Bitcoin-based ETF in the United States aims to facilitate easier access to the cryptocurrency for money managers, potentially attracting billions of dollars in new investments to the space.
BTC ETF Speculation Sparks Optimism
Researchers at Kaiko note a noticeable shift in the market sentiment since mid-October, driven by increasing institutional interest in the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF and a more favorable macroeconomic environment.
The researchers also highlight recent inflows into crypto investment products and a seven-month high in daily spot-trading volumes in November.
Nevertheless, while excitement about a broader crypto rally often spreads across social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), it is important to acknowledge Bitcoin’s historical volatility.
According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency has experienced multiple hype cycles in recent years, with celebrated gains followed by significant downturns.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains and departure from a prolonged consolidation phase, Bloomberg suggests that a significant correction may still be on the horizon. At present, Bitcoin is trading at ,800, displaying sustained bullish momentum as it strives to reclaim the ,000 level.
The outcome remains uncertain whether the cryptocurrency will successfully consolidate above this critical level, positioning it favorably for continued upward movement throughout the month.
Alternatively, the current yearly high level could act as a formidable resistance barrier for the Bitcoin price, further supporting Bloomberg’s thesis of a potential correction.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Eyes New Highs As Bloomberg Analyst Reiterates 90% Chance Of January ETF Approval
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, is currently in an upward accumulation phase, inching closer to surpassing its current yearly high of ,390.
This upward trend is further fueled by the anticipation surrounding the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bitcoin ETF Approval By January 10
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Erich Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF expert, shared his perspective on the probability of Bitcoin ETF approval. Balchunas maintains a 90% chance of SEC approval by January 10, which has remained consistent for months.
Balchunas highlights that while debates over specific dates and timelines persist, the SEC and issuers are diligently working behind the scenes to make ETFs ready for this cycle, defying earlier skepticism. Balchunas stated:
People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates
As predicted by many analysts, Bitcoin is poised for a potential breakout in the upcoming months, both before and after these investment products’ anticipated approval. As reported by NewsBTC, Bitcoin could surge to as high as ,000 even before the halving event forecasted for April.
In this context, Bitcoin must maintain its position above the key support level of ,000. This mark serves as a threshold for future gains, both preceding and succeeding the approval of spot ETFs.
Upholding this support level will be instrumental in determining Bitcoin’s prospects for continued growth and market performance.
Next Resistance Level Holds Key To Surpassing All-Time High
Renowned crypto analyst Crypto Con has shed light on the remarkable strength of the current Bitcoin cycle, drawing comparisons to the previous from 2019 to 2022.
By examining key resistance levels and price movements, Crypto Con emphasizes the positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price trajectory and suggests that the current cycle is poised for success.
Crypto Con highlights the prolonged weakness observed during the 2019-2022 Bitcoin cycle, characterized by Bitcoin’s struggle to surpass the initial Wave Trend resistance over a year.
In contrast, the current cycle has demonstrated impressive resilience, effortlessly breaking through this resistance level.
Despite the substantial rise in Bitcoin’s price, Crypto Con points out that the cryptocurrency has yet to reach the next resistance level, called green zone 2, with a price target of ,000.
In a typical cycle, this milestone does not indicate the end of price action but rather marks the beginning of a more significant upward trajectory.
Crypto Con further suggests that subsequent resistance levels, indicated by the color blue in the chart above, can drive Bitcoin’s price even higher, surpassing its previous all-time high.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at ,700, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, and it remains to be seen if a consolidation above ,000 will occur.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin ETF Hype: Bloomberg Intelligence Envisions $100 Billion Market If Regulatory Approval Granted
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trajectory toward ,000, the long-awaited arrival of a US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could open the floodgates of digital currency investing for institutional and retail investors.
Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the potential spot Bitcoin ETF market could reach a staggering 0 billion, signaling a breakthrough for cryptocurrencies on Wall Street.
Inquiries Surge As Spot Bitcoin ETF Looms
The anticipation surrounding Bitcoin ETFs stems from the expected regulatory approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After a decade of rejecting various applications, the SEC is on track to green-light ETFs that will enable the buying and selling Bitcoin within a tax-efficient and cost-effective framework.
This pivotal regulatory shift has sparked optimism among digital asset proponents, who see this as a redemption opportunity following the industry’s recent challenges.
Respected heavyweights such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco are expected to participate in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Collaborations like the one between Galaxy Digital Holdings and Invesco further emphasize the growing interest from reputable financial institutions.
On this matter, Galaxy Digital recently hosted a conference call attended by approximately 300 investment professionals, discussing strategies for allocating investments to Bitcoin in anticipation of the ETF debut.
According to Bloomberg, wealth managers and financial advisers are increasingly intrigued by the potential of Bitcoin ETFs. Professionals like Jeff Janson at Summit Wealth have received inquiries from investors of all ages, indicating a growing appetite for digital assets in portfolios.
Coinbase suggests that ETFs will attract immediate inflows and reshape the market through fresh lending and derivatives trades. However, it is important to note that this transformation will take time to unfold fully.
The imminent launch of Bitcoin ETFs represents a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, potentially catapulting it into the mainstream financial landscape.
As estimated by Bloomberg Intelligence, the projected 0 billion market for spot Bitcoin ETF underscores the growing confidence and widespread interest among investors.
BTC’s Dominance Unshaken
According to a recent report by CoinShares, Bitcoin has maintained its dominance in the cryptocurrency market, experiencing a notable inflow of 5 million.
This surge in investment comes as the last eight weeks of inflows alone account for approximately 3.4% of the total assets under management.
Interestingly, while Bitcoin saw substantial inflows, there were outflows of approximately .5 million from short-Bitcoin positions the previous week. This suggests that investors are increasingly optimistic about BTC’s future and its potential for further growth.
In line with the above, the report suggests that this positive BTC sentiment is closely linked to the expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at ,100, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours, with expectations that the largest cryptocurrency on the market can once again break through the ,000 mark and consolidate above it to target the ,000 mark.
However, it remains to be seen whether the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will be the main catalyst for further gains in the coming months or whether a rejection could cause BTC to test investor confidence and lower support levels.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Eyes $37,000: Bloomberg Analysts Give Timeline To Spot ETF Approval
Bitcoin has risen above ,000 and is currently targeting ,000 as Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have revived hopes that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved this year. The analysts maintain their belief of a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 2024.
An Approval Order “Could” Occur This November
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Seyffart highlighted a new research note that he and Balchunas had just worked on. From their research, they noted that there is a “brief window” that allows the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all 12 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications at once.
This brief window (which opens up on November 9) will last for at least eight days, before which it is almost possible for the SEC to approve all applications at once until next year. The reason for their assertion is that the SEC cannot approve an application that is in the comment stage. It so happens that the comment stage of the last applications that the SEC delayed ends on November 8, which is why they highlighted the window that starts from November 9.
As to why the window is only going to last for about eight days, the SEC is expected to decide on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17, which could put both applicants in the comment stage. This is because it is expected that the SEC will opt to delay its decisions on those funds and ask the general public for comments on them.
Meanwhile, the analysts noted that this window only applies to the SEC approving all 12 applications at once. They explain that “theoretically,” the Commission could decide on the other applications from now until January 10, 2024, even if it chooses to delay its decision on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17. Whatever happens, they still believe that there is a 90% chance that any of these funds get approved by January 10 next year.
A Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch Isn’t So Straightforward
When quizzed about how long it will take for these funds to launch after approval, Balchunas mentioned in an X post that he guessed that the “19b-4s” applications would be approved in the “not so distant future.” Then it will further take a while for the SEC to approve the “S-1s” after which it “would likely be days till launch.”
Seyffart also echoed similar sentiments as he stated that there are “two paths” that need to be completed before an ETF launches. One is the 19b-4 approval, after which the division of Corporation Finance at the SEC will still need to sign off on the S-1s. However, there is no sign that any of that has been done yet. As such, it could take “weeks or even months” between approval and launch.
Irrespective of that, Bitcoin has picked up on the possibility that Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved this month and has ridden on that wave to above ,000. At the time of writing, the foremost cryptocurrency is trading at around ,700, up over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.