Following the initial 2024 U.S. Presidential Debate, prediction market wagers on whether incumbent Joe Biden will withdraw have seen a significant increase in activity. The likelihood of Biden stepping down and being substituted has risen notably. Betting Markets React to Joe Biden’s Unintelligible Statements and Performance On Thursday, CNN broadcasted the 2024 U.S. Presidential Debate […]
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Betting Odds Odds Suggest 24% Chance Joe Biden Will Exit 2024 Election Race
According to a bet on Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform powered by Polygon, there’s a wager on whether current U.S. President Joe Biden will exit the 2024 election race. Currently, the likelihood of Biden stepping down has grown over the past few months to a 24% probability, as indicated by Polymarket bettors. Political Futures in […]
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Hedge Funds Heavily Betting For Bitcoin To Fall: Will This Strategy Fail?
Looking at the formation in the daily chart, there is no relief for Bitcoin at spot rates. Following the flash crash on June 6, prices reversed sharply from the ,000 level, further highlighting the significance of the liquidation level.
In the past, Bitcoin prices have recoiled from this level, with analysts expecting a short squeeze to print once this line is breached.
Hedge Funds Are Short Selling Bitcoin Futures: Will This Strategy Backfire?
Amid this slip, one analyst on X notes that hedge funds and Wall Street firms have increasingly taken short positions on Bitcoin futures contracts, expecting BTC prices to plunge.
Though they could be net long on the spot market, taking advantage of the fee differential, the trader notes that this strategy is risky. If anything, massive losses could occur should prices unexpectedly spike.
Between the current price point and slightly above all-time highs at ,000, exchange data and trader notes show billion worth of short positions on BTC futures.
This move means that hedge funds are net bearish, and since everyone knows the big boys of Wall Street are shorting, this move could backfire spectacularly.
Even so, hedge funds selling BTC futures are nothing new. Often, hedge funds tend to short the futures of a given product and simultaneously buy the spot markets, taking advantage of the carry trade to profit.
The problem is that this hedging tactic is popular in traditional finance and has been profitable before. On the other hand, Bitcoin is a new asset class that is outside the traditional finance system.
Accordingly, the strategy might not pan out exactly as expected, leading to massive losses.
BTC Fragile But Spot ETF Issuers On A Buying Spree
Whether Bitcoin will recover from spot rates remains to be seen. As it is, BTC is under immense selling pressure, dropping from ,000.
Although the uptrend remains, buyers are yet to reverse the June 6 losses, meaning the path of least resistance in the short term is southwards. A break below ,000 would completely wipe out gains of May 20, signaling a trend shift.
Still, buyers are upbeat about what lies ahead. Last week, despite the contraction, all spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers in the United States have been on a buying spree.
According to HODL15 Capital, in the first week of June, they added 25,729 Bitcoin. This stash is equivalent to roughly two months’ worth of mined coins and is the highest weekly buying activity since mid-March. Then, BTC rose to all-time highs of around ,800.
Presidential Election Betting Surges as Odds Tighten on Polymarket
The competition has notably intensified in recent months for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as indicated by the prediction market platform Polymarket. Just two months ago, former President Donald Trump was ahead with a 52% lead, while incumbent Joe Biden was at 33%. Current figures from Polymarket still place Trump in the lead, albeit by […]
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Betting Big On Ethereum: Options Traders Target $4,000 Mark Amid Market Optimism
Ethereum (ETH) is showing a noteworthy pattern in the options market. According to data from Deribit, a leading platform for crypto futures and options trading, there’s a significant concentration of call options for ETH around the ,000 strike price for both the June and September expiries.
Options Traders Anticipate ,000 Ethereum
This accumulation of ETH call options centered on the ,000 mark indicates a concentrated expectation among traders that the price of Ethereum could rise to, or above, ,000 by these dates.
For context, options are financial derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of call options) or sell (put options) the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date.
Notably, according to a chart from the crypto futures and options trading platform, the ,000 ETH strike price emerged as the dominant position in the ETH options trading landscape, surpassing other strike prices for the June and September expiry dates.
It is worth noting that such a pattern indicates market sentiment and can influence trading strategies. In this instance, the pattern implies that most options traders are likely bullish on Ethereum, anticipating a notable increase in its value.
Furthermore, this trend might lead fundamental traders to reconsider their positions on Ethereum, potentially shifting their outlook to expect an upward trajectory in the asset’s performance.
Factors Influencing ,000 ETH Options Strike Price
This clustering of Ethereum call options at the ,000 strike price appears to be influenced by several factors, including the potential approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
With the final decision deadline for these spot ETF applications set for May 23, traders seem to be positioning their Ethereum options contracts in anticipation of a favorable outcome, as observed by Bitfinex’s Head of Derivatives, Jag Kooner.
However, Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer, Luuk Strijers, cautions against drawing definitive “conclusions” about the link between the derivatives market and the Ethereum spot ETF approval expectations.
Strijers notes that while the “June skew” is higher, indicating more “expensive calls,” it’s challenging to pinpoint this precisely to the spot ETF news or expected correlation with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Meanwhile, Altcoin Daily crypto analysts recently outlined three key factors that could propel Ethereum’s price to ,000. Among these factors, the anticipation and potential approval of Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) were highlighted as a major catalyst.
While Ethereum futures have already gained global acceptance, analysts emphasize that the green light for these spot ETFs could significantly trigger Ethereum’s long-term price appreciation.
Regardless of this contrasting ETH view, ETH currently trades at ,495, showing a 7.7% increase in the past week and a 1.9% rise in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Forget Bitcoin, This Billionaire Is Betting Big On Solana For 2024
In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, is painting an optimistic picture for the potential recovery and growth of Solana in the crypto market. Known for his adept navigation through market fluctuations, Hayes recently shed light on Solana’s positive trajectory, emerging from the shadows cast by the downfall and legal entanglements of FTX.
Solana (SOL), once the favorite of the now-convicted founder Sam Bankman-Fried, had faced uncertain speculations about its destiny in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. However, Hayes’ sanguine remarks have reignited interest in the network’s future possibilities.
With a history of accurate market predictions, Hayes divulged his investment strategy in a recent essay. Within it, he explored the potential downturn of Bitcoin (BTC) and his decision to divest some tokens to minimize losses, including Solana and Bonk tokens.
Solana Recovery Sparks Hayes’ Optimism For Strategic Altcoin Investments
Hayes envisions a robust investment in Solana and various altcoins if Bitcoin’s price dips below ,000, signaling his confidence in Solana’s prospective recovery and growth.
I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend. pic.twitter.com/SxCwK3BVYB
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 1, 2024
Solana’s market performance has been marked by notable price swings. Following a bullish surge in late 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced a correction in early 2024 but has showcased resilience, maintaining a price indicative of investor trust.
Hayes’ earlier bullish comments on Solana have coincided with a price uptick, adding credibility to his positive outlook. His recent commentary has sparked renewed optimism in the crypto community regarding Solana’s potential, particularly in the aftermath of the FTX catastrophe.
Fam I have something embarrassing I must admit.
I just bot $SOL, I know its a Sam-coin piece of dogshit L1 that at this point is just a meme. But it is going up, and I’m a degen.
Let’s Fucking Go!
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2023
Emphasizing Solana’s promise, Hayes took to his social media platforms to express his bullish sentiments, sharing a chart illustrating the cryptocurrency’s price movements. The post swiftly gained traction, proposing a strategic approach to rejuvenating the Solana market, especially in the face of potential turbulence in the U.S. banking system.
SOL Rollercoaster: From Correction To Bullish Optimism
Solana’s journey in the market has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Commencing from a modest position in October 2023, SOL soared to impressive heights by Christmas before undergoing a correction with the onset of the new year. Nevertheless, the digital currency has displayed resilience, charting a course that hints at potential recovery and growth.
The former BitMEX big boss Hayes is expressing optimism about Solana’s recovery and growth potential. His bullish stance, coupled with his market acumen and past successful predictions, has reignited interest and hope within the crypto community regarding Solana’s future prospects.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView
Super Bowl 58 Wagers Heat up — 49ers Lead as Crypto Betting Markets Favor Their Victory
In just under two weeks, the National Football League (NFL) champions of the American Football Conference (AFC), the Kansas City Chiefs, and their counterparts from the National Football Conference (NFC), the San Francisco 49ers, will clash in the much-anticipated Super Bowl 58. As of right now, various cryptocurrency betting platforms indicate a preference for the 49ers to emerge victorious in the championship showdown.
49ers Edge Out Chiefs in Crypto Betting Markets
On February 11, 2024, a showdown is set between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, sparking a surge in betting activity. Crypto enthusiasts have also been actively wagering on the NFL’s forthcoming title match, with the 49ers emerging as the nominal frontrunner for victory.
Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market operating on Polygon, suggests that the 49ers hold a 52% likelihood of victory, while the Chiefs are close behind with a 48% chance. As of Jan. 30, 2024, wagers on Super Bowl 58 on Polymarket have soared to 5,362. This betting trend is mirrored on other digital currency platforms.
For instance, Stake.com lists the San Francisco 49ers as favorites with odds of 1.8, indicating a higher probability of their win compared to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are pegged at 2.02 odds, signaling a slightly lower chance of victory. Likewise, the bitcoin sportsbook at luckyblock.com echoes these odds, placing the 49ers in the lead.
Currently, conventional betting sites reflect identical odds for the Super Bowl. CBS News correspondent Jordan Dajani, reporting on Tuesday, labeled the Chiefs as the “slight underdogs.” Dajani, however, points out that these odds are subject to swift changes as the game approaches.
“It’s worth mentioning that these lines are live and they will surely experience some movement — which they already have, as the line dipped by a full 1.5 points overnight, with the Niners sitting at -1 on Monday morning,” Dajani wrote.
Betting odds and the wisdom of the crowd offer a fascinating glimpse into collective anticipation and opinion. As the Super Bowl 58 approaches, both traditional and cryptocurrency-based platforms showcase how enthusiasts engage with sports through predictive wagers. These markets not only reflect public sentiment but also serve as dynamic, real-time barometers of changing perspectives.
What do you think about the crypto betting sites predicting the outcome of Super Bowl 58? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Global Banks Are Betting Big On XRP, Report Shows
Global banks have begun actively integrating crypto assets into their financial operations, and XRP has been one of their top preferences. This news signifies a shift in the skepticism surrounding cryptocurrencies, revealing how some of the world’s leading banks seek to leverage XRP’s fundamental strengths as a cross-border payments system.
BCBS Highlights XRP Dominance In The Banking Sector
The Basel Committee on Bank Supervision (BCBS) has recently published its first data collection template report on banks’ holdings of crypto assets. This report gives detailed insight into the crypto exposure of global banks.
According to the publication, 19 out of 182 world banks in the Basel III monitoring exercise have submitted their crypto asset data to the BCBS for review and analysis. Out of the 19 banks, seven banks submitted reports from Europe, 10 banks From the Americas, and two from other parts of the world.
The data collection template revealed that the majority of banks submitted reports on crypto asset exposure, primarily featuring XRP, BTC, and ETH cryptocurrencies.
The report stated that the total crypto asset exposures submitted by the global banks amounted to €9.4 billion (around billion). Among these exposures, XRP emerged as the third-largest altcoin utilized for bank engagements.
XRP investments comprised 2% equivalent to €188 million of the total crypto asset exposures. While Bitcoin and Ether were ranked 31% and 22% respectively.
“Reported crypto-asset exposures are primarily composed of Bitcoin (31%), Ether (22%), and a multitude of instruments with either Bitcoin or Ether as the underlying crypto assets (25% and 10% respectively),” the report stated.
This report underscores the growing interest of XRP in the financial banking sector. The Basel III monitoring exercise report also provides a valuable benchmark for gaining insight into the position of cryptocurrencies in the financial sector.
BCBS Crypto Asset Reports
In the Basel III monitoring exercise template, a collective composition of crypto asset exposures by 19 of the world banks was disclosed. The report stated that the total crypto asset exposures stand at about €9.4 billion, representing a modest fraction of the cumulative crypto-asset exposures across the 182 banks covered by the BCBS.
Overall, the crypto asset exposures of the 19 banks constitute 0.05% of the total financial commitments made by the institutions under the Basel III monitoring exercise.
“Total crypto-asset exposures reported by banks amount to approximately €9.4 billion. In relative terms, these exposures make up only 0.05% of total exposures on a weighted average basis across the sample of banks reporting crypto-asset exposures,” the report stated.
It added:
“When considering the whole sample of banks included in the Basel III monitoring exercise (i.e. also those that do not report crypto-asset exposures), the amount shrinks to 0.01% of total exposures.”
The data collection template also revealed other crypto assets employed by these world banks such as Cardano (1%), Solana (1%) Litecoin (0.4%), and Stellar (0.4%).
Bitcoin ETF Will Send BTC Back To $44,000, Why This Trading Firm Is Betting On This Scenario
The price of BTC continues to push higher, and the bullish momentum remains intact as news around the Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) improves overall sentiment. In the wake of the recent rally, some trading firms doubled down on their bullish positions.
As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at ,200 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency rose by over 20% the previous week, operating as the top performer in the top 10 by market capitalization.
Bitcoin ETF To Trigger Larger Rally: What’s The Target?
Via social media platform X, trading desk QCP Capital disclosed their positions coming into the rally. The firm longed Bitcoin volatility with options contracts, taking some profits on their positions as the cryptocurrency rallied.
Still, the firm remains optimistic, holding on to their calls due to expiry in December. By then, the firm targets a BTC price above ,000 to ,000, based on the momentum generated by a potential Bitcoin ETF approval.
In the last week, the news generated by this event has shifted market sentiment, leading investors to a more favorable area. However, the firm remains cautious about the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the short term.
QCP Capital stated:
(…) we believe the SEC will avoid playing the role of kingmaker, sticking with its own precedent set during the BTC/ETH futures ETF approval process and will wait to approve multiple managers at the same time. Nonetheless with this bullish break of 32k, we believe the market has started to price in an approval as the base case. The only question now is when the approval will happen.
SEC To Avoid Kingmaking In Bitcoin ETF Approval.
The trading firm believes the financial instrument will get approved in 2024. The SEC will likely avoid favoring one firm to prevent BlackRock or other asset managers from taking a large portion of the clients and the trading volume, as when the future Bitcoin ETF was approved.
The firm believes the financial instrument could get approved “much later than the market expects now.” As mentioned, investors have begun pricing in any price action associated with the ETF, which could lead BTC to another range until 2024.
The firm cautioned players from taking late long positions:
(…) we are seeing stretched positive perp funding rates especially on Deribit (BTC over 70% and ETH over 100%) as well as elevated short-end ATM vols (BTC up to 75%!) – typically indicative of an exhausted short-term move.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Betting on Justice? Polymarket Odds Reveal Speculators’ Take on Bankman-Fried’s Trial
As the trial for Sam Bankman-Fried begins this week, the cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting the verdict. Will Bankman-Fried be found guilty or not guilty? As the trial progresses, speculators are using the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket to bet on the potential outcome.
Cryptocurrency Speculators Use Polymarket to Bet on Bankman-Fried’s Trial
This week, Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) trial began with jury selection, opening statements and witness testimony. Witnesses, including a trader from the U.K. and former colleagues, have testified against him. Notable testimonies came from former FTX chief technology officer and co-founder Gary Wang and former FTX developer Adam Yedidia. The trial is expected to continue for several weeks, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are using the decentralized prediction market Polymarket to bet on specific outcomes.
For example, as the court listened to testimonies from Yedidia and Wang, Polymarket users are betting on whether former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison will testify. Currently, the market indicates an 86% chance that Ellison will testify, while 14% believe she won’t. Another betting market, titled “Will Bankman-Fried Testify,” shows a 69% chance he will testify and a 31% chance he won’t.
There’s also a bet on whether Bankman-Fried will be found guilty on all charges. Currently, Polymarket odds indicate a 54% chance he will be. Conversely, people can bet .46 that he will not be found guilty on all charges. Another bet, titled “SBF Guilty of Any Charges,” shows a 90% chance he will be found guilty of at least one charge. Those who believe he will be acquitted of all charges can bet .10.
While prediction markets aren’t always accurate, they offer insight into public sentiment. The theory is that the combined knowledge of many individuals can provide accurate predictions about future events. Research has shown that prediction markets can be very accurate, often more so than individual experts or polls.
Prediction markets have long been used to bet on future events, such as elections, sports games or financial market trends. With Polymarket, market prices show the current odds of an event occurring. Participants can buy outcome shares for less than , which can be traded anytime and are worth if the predicted outcome is correct.
What do you think about the speculators betting on the SBF trial via Polymarket? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.