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Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Steady Above $3,400, But Analysts Still Believe Further Losses Could Be in Store
Following Bitcoin’s recent drop into the ,400 region, it has been able to hold support above ,400 for an extended period of time, which may ultimately prove to be positive for Bitcoin’s price action. It is important to note that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet been able to break above ,500, which appears to be a relative level of resistance for the cryptocurrency.
Although Bitcoin has held steady in the mid-to-upper ,400 range, one analyst still believes it will see further losses before finding major buying support and possibly reversing.
Bitcoin Steady Above ,400, Likely to Continue Consolidating in Near-Term
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down approximately 1% at its current price of ,450. Yesterday, BTC climbed towards ,500, but failed to break above this price level, leading it to drop today.
After breaking below ,550 earlier this week, BTC plunged until it reached ,400, at which point it bounced and climbed towards its current price levels. Because of this reaction to the low-,400 price region, it is likely this is the first major support level BTC has established before its 2018 lows exist around ,200.
Josh Rager, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, spoke about Bitcoin’s recent price action, noting that BTC still remains in consolidation, and will not revisit its 2018 lows unless it fails to stay above ,344.
“$BTC daily chart… This chart has been posted for weeks and nothing has changed… Previous support at ,344 did not break and bounced at the exact support level… Unless this support breaks, Bitcoin will not retest the previous lows… At this time – $BTC remains in consolidation,” he explained.
$BTC daily chart
This chart has been posted for weeks and nothing has changed
Previous support at ,344 did not break and bounced at the exact support level
Unless this support breaks, Bitcoin will not retest the previous lows
At this time – $BTC remains in consolidation pic.twitter.com/htSl0ANmfc
— Josh Rager
(@Josh_Rager) January 31, 2019
Some Analysts Are Still Bearish on BTC Despite It Holding Above Support Levels
Although BTC has been able to hold steady above ,400, some bearish analysts point to the lack of major buying support and equilibrium on a macro-view as a reason why the cryptocurrency may need to fall further before stabilizing and preparing for an upwards move.
![](https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/shutterstock_740847586-600x422.jpg)
Bitcoin could still see further losses despite its ability to hold support above ,400.
A popular cryptocurrency analyst, Moon Overlord, recently noted that because Bitcoin was unable to form any major regions of support during its parabolic upwards climb in late-2017, it may see significantly further losses before it finds major buying support.
“I don’t know what the plan for $BTC on the monthly is, where would you even set bids or start buying. It went up so quickly it didn’t build a single support on the way up,” he said.
I don't know what the plan for $BTC on the monthly is, where would you even set bids or start buying.
It went up so quickly it didn't build a single support on the way up. pic.twitter.com/NfEjnDdRaG
— Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) January 29, 2019
Late-yesterday, he doubled down on these recent comments, adding that the lack of major buying pressure at BTC’s current price signals that it may still be bearish on large time frames.
“Not sure why more people aren’t talking about $BTC on high time frames, feels pretty bearish to me Where is the buy support / equilibrium Doesn’t seem like people are dying to buy in this range?”
Not sure why more people aren’t talking about $BTC on high time frames, feels pretty bearish to me
Where is the buy support / equilibrium
Doesn’t seem like people are dying to buy in this range ? https://t.co/95FSXBnAaK
— Moon Overlord (@MoonOverlord) January 31, 2019
If BTC fails to hold above ,400 in the near future, it will likely find greater buying support in the low-,000 region, which will be an important level for bulls to protect or significantly further losses could be in store.
Featured images from Shutterstock.
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Why Many Believe Fed Rate and Dow Jones Rebound Could Fuel Bitcoin in Long-Term
Just like common Joes and Jills, politicians, economists, and bigwigs in the upper echelons of society are subject to whims. This was only accentuated on Wednesday, as the world’s most powerful economic body revealed that it would be taking a step in a new direction, pushing gold and stocks much higher. Bitcoin remained unchanged, but many believe that this decision could be a positive catalyst for the crypto asset in the years to come.
Fed Puts Rate Hike On The Backburner, Gold & Stocks Surge
During early-October, the U.S. stock market, especially companies listed on the tech-centric Nasdaq, were in for a dramatic shock. In a brief, seemingly innocuous remark, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman, Jerome Powell, claimed that the American central bank wasn’t close to discerning that a neutral rate of growth was needed.
Related Reading: Issuance Of Crypto Assets Will Push Bitcoin Lower, Claims St. Louis FED
As Powell’s quip echoed off the walls of the Internet’s echo chambers, Wall Street went into a semi-panic, as a number of tocks en-masse quickly moved off all-time highs to fresh multi-month lows. By December, markets looked dismal, as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other pertinent indexes across the globe had officially entered bear market territory. Even assets other than publicly-tradable shares were in the dumps, as the Homebuilders Index and commodities felt pain too. This further sell-off was likely catalyzed by Powell’s comment that the Fed’s balance sheet, which was pruning bond holdings rapidly, was on “autopilot.”
But since Christmas, which was preceded and followed by a number of what can only be described as chaotic trading sessions, incumbent president Donald Trump and Powell have been duking it out. Trump has overtly attacked the Fed for its seeming ease of hiking its target interest rate. But Powell and his economists/advisors maintained that their intent was to increase policy rates in 2019.
Yet, according to a recent report from CNBC, Powell has effectively gone back on his word, noting that the central financial body voted unanimously to put rate hikes on the backburner… for now. In a statement from the fiscal powerhouse, it was explained that “in light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures,” the Fed would be “patient” in determining what moves it would take with its targeted rate.
Long story short, Powell and his cronies have decided, (purportedly not in response to Trump’s bashing tweets), that policy rates won’t be increased due to an underlying positive shift in the macroeconomy.
When mainstream media outlets spread the word on this matter, the market jumped, posting gains that accentuated that investors are regaining confidence in this market. As of the end of Wednesday’s trading session, the S&P 500 is up 1.55%, while the Nasdaq Composite is up a more impressive 2.20%. Interestingly, gold also saw a nice bump, with the precious metal moving to ,320/oz spot, compared to the ,313 price seen on Tuesday.
What does this all mean for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem?
Where Does Bitcoin Fit In All This?
Apparently not much. That’s according to Alex Krüger anyway, who recently took to Twitter to joke that Bitcoin has no idea what the Fed is, nor the entity’s enamorment with interest rates and playing with the market like a string instrument.
Market reactions to the Fed:
Gold: I'm lovin' it
Bitcoin: what is the Fed? interest what? pic.twitter.com/MAlMTnCmqm
— Alex Krüger (@Crypto_Macro) January 30, 2019
While the flagship cryptocurrency didn’t budge off this news, unlike its physical counterpart, many pundits in the crypto community believe that this sudden shift in the Fed’s strategy only underscores the importance of Bitcoin and similar decentralized innovations. Travis Kling, a crypto hedge fund manager based in Los Angeles, recently took to Twitter to comment on Powell’s “dovish” nature.
Using the term “capitulated” in a likely reference to crypto’s obsession over the word, Kling quipped that the Fed threw in the towel, obeying Trump’s tweets and market sentiment like a sheep being led to slaughter.
The Fed just capitulated to the market and Trump's tweets.
The 2019 U.S. budget deficit is trillion.
If you were writing the script for a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, digital form of money to gain mass adoption, this is how you would write it.https://t.co/3nT15fjnVY
— Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) January 31, 2019
With the 2019 U.S. budget deficit being purportedly over trillion in mind, the Ikigai Fund head, who formerly worked at Steve Cohen’s Point72, noted that the value proposition for a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, digital form of money — Bitcoin summarized in a sentence — just surged.
For those who didn’t get the memo, Powell’s new direction will likely catalyze the American government to impose the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE). Per previous reports from this outlet, Kling, now a skeptic of certain financial ecosystems, noted that globally-coordinated quantitative easing (QE) — “the largest monetary experiment [of all time]” where governments have effectively pushed markets drastically higher — birthed Bitcoin, an asset meant to disintermediate the whims of centralized parties and money.
Although this would suggest that Bitcoin could outperform on the back of the potentially upcoming bout of quantitative easing, where the Fed will drastically bolster its balance sheet, Kling made it clear that too much of a good thing could turn south. He wrote:
“Money printing is a drug. Risk assets have been on that drug for 10 years. They are addicted to that drug… This is unlikely to end well.”
And in closing, he expressed that with QE4 now being on the table, a bet on Bitcoin is a bet on opting out of “that experiment,” echoing comments he conveyed on TD Ameritrade.
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Ethereum: Analysts Believe Upcoming Constantinople Fork Will be Bullish Despite Delay
Although Ethereum is currently seeing a price drop due to its highly-anticipated Constantinople hard fork being delayed, it will still likely prove to be a positive event for the cryptocurrency’s price once the security flaws are smoothed out and it is implemented. Investors will not know until Friday when the new scheduled date for the hard fork is.
The term “hard fork” is typically seen as being a negative event for cryptocurrencies, and this is in part due to previous forks that have badly burned investors, like the recent Bitcoin Cash hard fork that split the community and led the cryptocurrency’s price to plunge.
Despite this, prominent analysts seem to agree that Constantinople may have bullish implications for Ethereum in the long run, mainly due to its network improvements and its supply reducing upgrade that will reduce the new supply of ETH by 33%.
Ethereum Hard Fork Unlikely to Burn Investors Long-Term
One of the greatest risks posed by hard forks is when they split the cryptocurrency into two versions. This can greatly impact the crypto’s price action, and it can split the community while driving fearful investors out of their positions. It is important to note that this is not the case with the upcoming Constantinople fork, which will not be splitting ETH and should offer some great benefits to the network.
Mati Greenspan, the senior market analyst at eToro, discussed the contentions hard forks can cause in a recent email, saying:
“Sometimes, when there is a disagreement among the community about the upgrade, some members will choose to keep the old version of the blockchain alive and we see a split. The most famous cases of this was when Bitcoin Cash split off of Bitcoin on August 1st 2017 and when Ethereum split with Ethereum Classic back in 2016,” he explained.
Ethereum core developer Lane Rettig spoke to Bloomberg earlier today about the upcoming fork, noting that it is one of the least eventful the network has seen in its history.
“I really can’t imagine a less contentious hard fork, to be honest… Of all the hard forks in the history of Ethereum, it’s probably the least eventful one,” Rettig said.
Now, however, the fork is seeing increased drama and scrutiny due to the recently discovered security flaw that, if it had been implemented, would have allowed nefarious actors to exploit a loophole in the coding that would have essentially allowed them to continuously withdraw innocent user’s funds.
Analysts Believe Constantinople is Bullish for ETH Price
In addition to offering some simple improvements to the network, analysts do believe that ETH investors will see benefits incurred from the hard fork, specifically due to the block rewards reduction that will reduce the supply of new Ether output, possibly offering the crypto more stable growth in the long-run.
Greenspan bullishly concluded that once the fork is completed, the markets will have a new Ethereum that is “faster, cheaper, and has 33% less inflation.”
Michael Moro, the chief executive officer of Genesis Global Trading, also spoke optimistically about the fork, specifically citing how the reduction of supply will reduce selling pressure.
“Being that the inflation rate will drop by a third, it could potentially reduce selling pressure that could come from the miners’ reward,” he explained.
Featured image from Shutterstock.
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Winklevoss Twins Believe Bitcoin Will Surpass Gold, Remain Leading Crypto
Save for Trace Mayer, Roger Ver, Jed McCaleb, Andreas Antonopoulos, and a mere handful of other early-stage Bitcoin (BTC) entrepreneurs, the Winklevoss Twins, Tyler and Cameron, are some of the most dedicated crypto believers out there.
Following a successful lawsuit against Facebook’s very own Mark Zuckerberg, the two pocketed dozens of millions. And eventually, after the two competed at Beijing’s Summer Olympics in 2008 and attended Oxford University for MBAs, they went on to allocate much of their settlement to the flagship crypto asset.
The Twins claimed that they purchased 1% of all BTC in 2013, a rumored 100,000 BTC. And, even while the two had ample time to liquidate their holdings well above their cost-basis, Tyler and Cameron have only doubled-down on this industry, time and time again. Their recent candid appearance on Reddit, the web’s most popular forum, only accentuated the duo’s unbridled optimism.
Gemini Founders’ Bitcoin Thesis Remains Unchanged
On Monday, Winklevoss Twins, the founders of the Gemini Exchange, took to Reddit’s “Ask Me Anything” subreddit for a candid question & answer discussion, which aimed to provide consumers with a look into the two’s business dealings, personal thoughts, and global outlook. Although the Twins garnered the attention of non-crypto fans, who know the two due to their involvement with the Olympics and Facebook, the so-called “AMA” session was focused around cryptocurrencies.
After some banter regarding “The Social Network,” a movie centered around the origins of Facebook, and the duo’s fastest erg (rowing) records, the Winklevii, as the two are often affectionately called, were asked about their thoughts on the market. Unsurprisingly, the Twins, who have evident vested interests in this nascent sector, explained that they remain bullish on Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Tyler explained that his and Cameron’s “thesis [on] Bitcoin’s upside remain unchanged,” even in spite of the bear market that ravaged cryptocurrencies and their respective communities throughout 2018. Their investment thesis, for those who missed the memo, is that Bitcoin is “better at being gold than gold itself” — a sentiment held by many long-standing cryptocurrency investors. So, Tyler noted that as this industry continues to develop, Bitcoin will continue eating up bits of gold’s market capitalization, until the cryptocurrency passes its physical counterpart.
Related Reading: Prominent CEO: Bitcoin Isn’t Digital Gold Yet, But ,000 Is Still Possible
The Gemini founders aren’t alone in pushing this thought process. Messari CEO Ryan Selkis explained that Bitcoin is a great hedge in a traditional market “inflationary recession,” which he predicted is right around the corner. Selkis noted that investors will “flock” to stores of value, like a digital gold, in trying times. Just weeks later, Crypto Oracle founder Lou Kerner divulged that Bitcoin could breach 0,000, specifically due to its inherent characteristics of being scarce, relatively portable, decentralized, and censorship-resistant — a perfect digital store of value.
Cameron explained that the aforementioned features, which allow Bitcoin to be classified as “hard money,” will allow the digital asset to maintain its unquestioned hegemony in the cryptocurrency world for years to come. The Winklevii half noted that “Bitcoin [will] most likely [be] the winner in the long-term… it’s certainly the OG crypto!”
In spite of the duo’s opinion on Bitcoin’s de-facto classification as a digital gold, Cameron noted that Gemini is currently looking into working with the Lightning Network, which will allow BTC to be used as digital cash more seamlessly.
Crypto Revolution Will Succeed When Money Works Like Email
Although the Winklevii seemed bullish on Bitcoin only, the two explained that they’re optimistic on the crypto revolution at large. When queried about what would prove that the innovation of truly decentralized technologies was successful, Tyler noted that bonafide “success” is a future where the Internet is decentralized and open, compared to the paywall-rife, censorship-heavy, and bad actor-filled that is present today.
In terms of the monetary system, the Winklevoss twin noted that when “your money does things that your current money cannot do,” specifically drawing attention to email-esque money, that will be a clear indicator that this revolution actually pulled through. Explaining his nebulous “email” comment in-depth, the Gemini head noted that when the financial system is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and all 365 days of the year, all while facilitating instant, basically free micropayments, that’s when cryptocurrencies will have properly flourished. Tyler quipped:
“Imagine if your email worked like your money, that is to say it was available from 9-5pm Mon-Fri and it took sometimes up to 3-5 days for someone in another country to get your message?”
Featured Image from Shutterstock
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Stock Market Trades Sideways, Analysts Believe Strong Chance of Rally in 2019
The stock market is currently experiencing a sideways trading session, with all of the major benchmarks trading down slightly. Although the markets have seen unprecedented volatility towards the end of 2018, analysts still have lofty expectations for how some major stocks will perform in 2019.
Their bullish views on the future of the markets is mostly validated by recent comments from Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, who also called the Dow hitting ,000.
Stock Market Trades Flat, Analyst Says There Could be a Major Rally if US Avoids a Recession
The market has kicked off its first trading session of 2019 with a sideways trading session.
At the time of writing, the Dow Jones is trading down marginally at its current price of ,296. The S&P 500 is also trading down slightly at its current price of ,505. The Nasdaq is trading up 0.2% currently at ,648.
Throughout the last quarter of 2018, the equities market has seen growing volatility resulting from growing trade tensions between the US and China, Brexit concerns, and rising interest rates from the Fed. The volatility, which led the benchmarks to end 2018 down, sparked concerns from investors and analysts alike regarding the possibility of a recession.
Jeremy Siegel spoke about the current market conditions, saying that although the markets are positioning themselves for a recession, if one is avoided the markets will have a great rally. He also noted that the next three months will likely be rough for equities investors.
“My feeling is that the market is virtually positioned for a mild recession, but I just don’t think that it’s going to happen. If we avoid a recession, we’re going to have a really good market… I think we swung too positive last summer and now I think we’ve swung too negative,” he told CNBC in a recent interview.
Clearly, analysts are not too fazed by the recent market volatility as they still hold lofty end-of-year price targets for some major stocks.
Visa Inc., UnitedHealthcare Group Inc., and Microsoft Corp. are analyst’s top three picks in the Dow according to their share of buy ratings.
Visa currently leads the way with 93% of analysts giving it a “buy” rating. It currently has a consensus price target at 3.89, marking an implied 12-month upside potential of 24% from its December 31st closing price of 1.94.
Currently, UnitedHealthcare Group has 92% of analysts giving it a “buy” rating, making it the second highest rated stock by analysts in the Dow. Its current consensus price target is set at 5.83, with an implied 12-month upside potential of 23% from its December 31st closing price of 9.12.
Microsoft is third on analyst’s top picks in the Dow, holding 89% of analyst’s “buy” ratings. Analysts have a consensus price target of 5.82, which implies a 24% 12-month upside potential from its December 31st closing price of 1.57.
Although the recent volatility in the equity markets may spill into 2019, analysts seem to concur that investors will see profitability in 2019.
Featured image from Shutterstock.
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Survey: 72% of Institutional Investors Believe Crypto Prices Would Rise in a Recession
A new survey conducted by Fundstrat Global Advisors has found that 72% of institutional investors believed that cryptocurrency prices would rise in the case of a global recession.
This is mainly due to the belief that non-governmental and retail market-related investments would be seen as a safe haven due to their distance from traditional markets.
The Fundstrat survey results were corroborated by a Twitter survey that found similar results amongst investors, with 59% of respondents claiming that they expect cryptocurrencies to rise during a recession.
Cryptocurrencies are fundamentally tied to an anti-establishment movement that began after the 2008 global financial crisis that reduced global trust in traditional banking systems and governments. It also led to the creation of Bitcoin by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, whose goal was to empower people by allowing them to be their own bank.
Conflicting Opinions on How Cryptocurrency Prices Would Handle a Recession
Despite cryptocurrency’s ties to anti-establishment movements, some analysts disagree with the aforementioned survey results, explaining that because cryptos are seen as high-risk investments, their success is typically tied to periods of times where investors feel comfortable risking their money.
Mati Greenspan, a senior market analyst at eToro, explained that investors should rush to conclusions regarding how the crypto markets would respond to a recession, reports MarketWatch.
“I don’t think it’s so binary. If we look over the past few years crypto have had a unique correlation with high-risk assets. They have risen as investors sought additional risk,” he said.
Despite being cautious in assuming that prices will rise as traditional markets falter, Greenspan also explained that the belief expressed in the Fundstrat and Twitter survey are understandable, saying:
“However, I do see why investors think that. Bitcoin was built on the ashes of the financial crisis to provide an alternative to fiat money run by governments and banks. If there was a catalyst that would make people question the role of these institutions then I can see them moving higher.”
The Fundstrat survey also had a few other interesting conclusions, finding that investors believe governmental and central bank adoption is the main influential factor in the markets, and that the market is incredibly split on the usefulness of XRP, the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Tom Lee, the managing partner at Fundstrat explained that:
“On Twitter, 46% chose XRP as their favorite and 31% said it made “least sense.”—no other token came close. Even 28% of Institutions also said XRP made the least sense and zero institutions picked it as their favorite token.”
The Fundstrat survey was conducted between September 30 and October 3 and consisted of 9,500 responses from investors. The data regarding the institutional views of the cryptocurrency markets was conducted during a dinner event with representatives from 25 financial institutions. However, it remains unclear which institutions were present for this event.
Featured image from Shutterstock.
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Survey: 70 Percent of Finance Executives Believe Crypto Here to Stay
The post Survey: 70 Percent of Finance Executives Believe Crypto Here to Stay appeared first on DCEBrief.
Is the Bitcoin Sell-Off Over? Technical Signs and Major Investors Believe so
Earlier this week, Lily Katz at Bloomberg reported that the GTI VERA Convergence Divergence Indicator suggests the Bitcoin downtrend is over. Experts have echoed a similar sentiment, expecting the bear market of the dominant cryptocurrency to come to an end in the upcoming months.
According to Katz, the GTI VERA Convergence Divergence, which analyzes trend reversals and exhaustion with the traditional Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has historically been an accurate indicator or long-term trend reversal.
For instance, earlier this year, when the GTI VERA Convergence Divergence signalled a trend reversal, the price of Bitcoin surged 39 percent the very next month.
Experts and Major Investors Believe the Bear Market is Coming to an End
In an interview with NewsBTC, Yoni Assia, the CEO at leading multi-asset trading platform eToro that has more than eight million users, said that the correction of Bitcoin in 2018 was healthy for the long-term growth of the crypto market.
More importantly, as Mati Greenspan said, a senior market analyst at eToro, the demand for Bitcoin at large cryptocurrency exchanges and trading platforms has not declined throughout the bear market.
Assia shared the sentiment of Greenspan, stating:
“Despite these adjustments, however, we have not seen a significant dip in demand for digital assets. As the market matures, more investors are expanding their portfolios to include cryptos, while new investors are opening portfolios to trade crypto assets. We do not expect this demand to slow down any time soon, as more people recognize the potential of crypto assets.”
On CNBC Crypto Trader, during an interview with Ran Neuner, ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees also shared his optimism towards the trend of the cryptocurrency market, noting that while the bear market of Bitcoin could continue in the short-term, the lower price range presents a decent opportunity for newcomers to buy into the market.
Due to the sheer scale of the drop in the price of major cryptocurrencies, it may require a few months of stability and volatility in the ,000 to ,000 region before initiating a large rally on the upside. But, most analysts and investors generally agree that the bear market is gradually coming to an end, with demand rising from investors in the broader financial market.
“I don’t expect it (bear market) to end soon, although I do think that the rate of collapse has slowed considerably. Generally in these bubbles, after you go through several months of a downtrend you hang out in a range for a while… But I think we are done with a majority of the collapse,” Voorhees said.
Exchanges Performing Well
Earlier this month, NewsBTC reported that despite the bear market, cryptocurrency exchanges have been demonstrating large volumes and high profit margins, luring in companies in Wall Street and the traditional finance sector into the cryptocurrency market.
UPbit, South Korea’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, which suffered the most in the 80 percent correction of 2018 due to the 30 to 40 percent “Kimchi Premium” in the cryptocurrency market of South Korea, has recorded a profit of 0 million in the third quarter of 2018.
With solid volumes of cryptocurrency exchanges and demand for digital assets still in tact, a recovery by the end of 2018 is becoming more likely.
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Don’t Believe What You Read About Quebec’s Chief Scientist and Crypto
Reports this week erroneously suggested that Quebec’s Chief Scientist dismissed concerns about the illicit usage of bitcoin, his office said.
CoinDesk