Kabosu, the Shiba Inu dog from Japan, known worldwide as the face of the “Doge” meme and Dogecoin, has passed away. Adopted by Atsuko Sato in 2008, Kabosu’s image became a viral sensation in 2013 when a photo of her was used in the creation of the “Doge” meme. This meme, characterized by phrases in […]
Bitcoin News
Blackrock Bitcoin ETF Attracts 414 Institutional Holders — Analyst Says IBIT ‘Blows Away Record’
Blackrock’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has amassed 414 insitutional holders in less than three months, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A senior Bloomberg analyst described this achievement as “mind-boggling” and “highly rare” for new ETFs. Other recently launched ETFs have significantly fewer institutional […]
Bitcoin News
Buy Crypto In May, Go Away: Arthur Hayes Shares His Top Altcoin Picks
In his most recent publication dated May 2, 2024, Arthur Hayes, the founder of exchange BitMEX, shared his insights into the crypto market’s recent tumultuous behavior and the broader macroeconomic signals shaping potential future trends. Titled “Mayday,” his essay directly addresses the crypto market, which has experienced significant volatility since mid-April.
Stealth Money Printing Is Commencing
Hayes begins by noting the observable distress in the crypto markets, which he attributes to a confluence of factors including the end of the US tax season, anticipatory fears about Federal Reserve policy decisions, the Bitcoin halving event, and stagnating growth in the assets under management (AUM) for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
He interprets these factors as a necessary purge of speculative excess, stating, “The tourists will sit out the next phase on the beach… if they can afford it. Us hard motherfuckers will hodl, and if possible, accumulate more of our favorite crypto reserve assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, and/or high-beta shitcoins like Solana, Dog Wif Hat, and dare I say Dogecoin (the OG doggie coin).”
A significant portion of Hayes’ analysis focuses on the Federal Reserve’s recent adjustment to its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Previously set at a reduction of billion per month, the Fed has dialed this back to billion.
Hayes interprets this as a covert form of quantitative easing, injecting an additional billion per month into the dollar liquidity pool. He explains, “When you combine the Interest on Reserve Balances, RRP payments, and interest payments on US Treasury debt, the reduction in QT increases the amount of stimulus provided to the global asset markets each month.”
Hayes also scrutinizes actions by the US Treasury, particularly under Secretary Janet Yellen. He discusses the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), which outlines the expected borrowing and cash balances for upcoming quarters. For Q2 2024, the Treasury anticipates borrowing 3 billion, a figure Hayes points out is billion higher than the previous forecast, due to lower-than-expected tax receipts.
He predicts this increased supply of Treasuries could lead to higher long-end rates, a situation Yellen may counter with yield curve control measures—a scenario that could catalyze a significant rally in Bitcoin and crypto prices.
Hayes touches on the failure of Republic First Bank, emphasizing the response by monetary authorities as a key indicator of systemic fragility. He criticizes the federal safety net that ensures all depositors are made whole, arguing that it masks deeper vulnerabilities within the US banking system and leads to a stealth form of money printing, as uninsured deposits are effectively guaranteed by the government. This, Hayes argues, is a fundamental misalignment that could lead to significant inflationary pressures.
Buy Crypto In May, Go Away
Hayes is candid about his investment strategies in the current environment. He advocates buying now. “I’m buying Solana and doggie coins for momentum trading positions. For longer-term shitcoin positions, I’m upping my allocations in Pendle and will identify other tokens that are ‘on sale.’ I will use the rest of May to increase my exposure. And then it’s time to set it, forget it, and wait for the market to appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements.”
He concludes with a broad prediction that, despite the market’s recent volatility, the underlying liquidity conditions created by US monetary and fiscal policies will provide a floor for crypto prices, leading to a gradual upward trend. “While I don’t expect crypto to fully realize the recent US monetary announcements’ inflationary nature immediately, I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher,” he states, signaling his bullish outlook.
For Bitcoin, Hayes predicts that the premier cryptocurrency will recapture the key ,000 level and then move in a range between ,000 and ,000 until August because of the annual summer lull.
At press time, BTC traded at ,393.
12 Days Until Bitcoin Halving: Why $100,000 Isn’t Much Further Away
With the fourth Bitcoin halving just 12 days away, the community is buzzing with anticipation, speculating on the potential for Bitcoin to breach the significant 0,000 threshold. Joe Consorti of Theya Research has offered a comprehensive analysis, diving into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s current market position and the factors that might catapult its value to new heights.
This event, a cornerstone in Bitcoin’s design to halve the rewards for mining new blocks every four years, historically triggers a bullish momentum, and the present scenario appears to be aligning with past precedents.
The Significance Of Bitcoin’s Consolidation Phase
Consorti’s analysis titled, “Bitcoin’s 4th Halving Is [12] Days Away, and 0,000 Isn’t Much Further Behind It”, begins with a deep dive into Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation phase, which he argues is a critical period that precedes a potential bull run.
“Bitcoin continues its consolidation. In keeping with its previous phases of consolidation at k and k, BTC spends several weeks at key psychological price levels exchanging hands between buyers and sellers before advancing higher,” Consorti stated on X.
He emphasizes that this is the sixth week of Bitcoin’s consolidation above ,000, marking the least volatile period at this price level and following a new all-time high. This, according to Consorti, signals a strong market confidence that could be the foundation for the next surge.
The analysis further explores the broader market dynamics, particularly the correlation breaks within the current cycle that have made the stock market an unreliable indicator of US economic sentiment. “The market at large has experienced massive correlation breaks this cycle […] This has a great deal to do with businesses extending their debt maturity during 2021 when rates were still low, and the US Treasury’s massive crisis-level fiscal deficit,” Consorti explains.
He argues that these factors have contributed to the decoupling of traditional economic indicators from the stock market’s performance, inadvertently benefiting asset prices, including Bitcoin.
The Role Of ETFs And The Spot Market
A significant portion of Consorti’s analysis is dedicated to the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs and their interaction with the spot market.
Despite a slowdown in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, the volume remains robust, indicating a healthy market. “This was one of the lowest weeks yet for BTC ETF inflows, although when you net in the outflows they are still healthy compared to previous weeks,” Consorti notes, suggesting that ETF shares are actively exchanging hands, mirroring the consolidation seen in the spot market.
This interplay between ETFs and the spot market, according to Consorti, provides a stable foundation for Bitcoin’s price, further solidifying the case for an impending bull run. “The funding rate is extremely muted, and we’re still at the same price [around ,000]. In this period of consolidation, the spot market has really taken control of Bitcoin price action. This will mean more stable footing for the ensuing bull run, raising my confidence further that this consolidation is preceding a move higher rather than lower,” Consorti concluded.
Expert Consensus On The Bullish Outlook
Consorti’s optimistic forecast is echoed by other industry experts, who have also shared their bullish predictions. CRG, another renowned analyst, emphasized the significance of Bitcoin’s recent performance, stating, “Great weekly close. Fresh all-time highs this week,” indicating a positive momentum that could be sustained in the post-halving period.
Great weekly close
Fresh all time highs this week
Source: my plums pic.twitter.com/wyxwomdDjZ
— CRG (@MacroCRG) April 8, 2024
TechDev, a crypto analyst, highlighted a rare pattern in Bitcoin’s trading history: “It doesn’t happen often. Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band. Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle.” This historical pattern, if repeated, could potentially drive Bitcoin’s price way beyond 0,000.
It doesn't happen often.#Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band.
Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle. pic.twitter.com/veOOOmT8Id
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 7, 2024
Daan Crypto Trades provided a technical perspective, focusing on Bitcoin’s resistance levels and potential targets: “Thoses previous ‘resistances’ didn’t end up putting much of a fight. It’s just the previous all-time high that’s making the price stall for the time being. Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us.” Daan’s targets are the 1.272 Fib at ,562, the 1.414 Fib at ,164 and the 1.618 Fib at 2,085.”
#Bitcoin High Timeframe Level Cheat Sheet
Thoses previous "resistances" didn't end up putting much of a fight. It's just the previous all time high that's making price stall for the time being.
Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us. https://t.co/AeP9vzOk7M pic.twitter.com/BWvcg8EjLE
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) April 7, 2024
At press time, BTC traded at ,739.
Binance NFT to Halt Bitcoin NFT Activities, Focus Shifts Away From BTC-Based Collectibles
In a recent announcement by Binance on April 4, 2024, the firm disclosed its decision to halt support for Bitcoin-based Ordinal non-fungible token (NFT) collectibles within its NFT marketplace. The directive from Binance calls for users of its NFT marketplace to withdraw their Ordinal inscriptions by May 18, 2024. Binance NFT Marketplace to End Ordinal […]
Bitcoin News
Binance to Halt Tron USDC Trading Following Circle’s Move Away
Crypto exchange Binance will end support for TRC-20-based USDC tokens on April 5, following an announcement by USDC issuer Circle to discontinue support for the stablecoin on the Tron blockchain. Circle ceased minting USDC on Tron and aims to phase out support entirely, aligning with efforts to maintain USDC’s trust, transparency, and safety. Binance users […]
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Robert F Kennedy Jr Sees Cryptocurrency as the ‘Best’ Inflation Hedge — Says Crypto ‘Takes Control Away From the Government’
U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) says cryptocurrency is the “best hedge against inflation.” He stressed that crypto “takes control away from the government and from the monopolistic banking system which uses money printing to shift wealth upward to the oligarchy of billionaires while impoverishing regular Americans.” RFK Jr. Says ‘Crypto Equals […]
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Ripple Locks Away 800 Million XRP In Escrow, Impact On Price?
Ripple Labs, a leading American-based payment firm has locked away a substantial amount of XRP tokens in its escrow wallet as part of its monthly unlock program to help bolster its ecosystem and XRP.
Ripple Takes Back 800 Million XRP
A recent report from on-chain tracker Whale Alert revealed that Ripple took back about 800 million XRP tokens. This is no surprise, as the stated transaction has been a recurring outcome by the payment firm.
The payment firm locked the aforementioned funds after its monthly 1 billion XRP release, which has caught the attention of the crypto space. According to Whale Alert, the firm carried out the transaction in two distinct transfers.
For the first transaction, Ripple locked away 500 million XRP tokens, valued at 3 million at the time of the report. Data from XRPScan shows that the 500 million XRP were initially transferred from “Ripple 23” to “Ripple 11” wallets before they were locked away.
Meanwhile, the second transaction saw 300 million XRP valued at about 1 million being transferred to the company’s escrow wallet. Whale Alert revealed the transaction was carried out by another wallet address identified as “Ripple 10,” according to data from the XRPScan.
The firm has been releasing XRP from its escrow holdings every first day of the month. This process is a component of Ripple’s strategy to regulate the amount of XRP in circulation and uphold stability in the dynamic world of digital assets.
After making up 55% of all XRP supply at first, the escrow accounts now own 40.7% of the supply. This is a result of the progressive unlocking process since it began in December 2017.
As of December 2017, the firm held 55 billion XRP as part of the escrow system initiative, which was mostly implemented on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
XRP Whales On Dumping Spree
Whale Alert has also detected a substantial dump of XRP on cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs). Whale Alert reported that over 67 million XRP was observed being moved to Bitso and Bitstamp platforms.
Further data shows that the unknown wallet address r4wf7enWPx…5XgwHh4Rzn transferred 37.9 million XRP to a Bitso-based wallet address. As of the time of transfer, the funds were valued at approximately million.
Later on, 29.7 million XRP was moved to Bitstamp, a Luxemburg-based crypto exchange, in a separate transaction. According to the tracker, the same wallet address carried out the transaction worth about million. This particular wallet address has been carrying out this type of transaction to the CEXs for a while now. It is believed that this might be due to Ripple’s strategic partnership with these centralized exchanges.
The price of XRP is still down by over 2% in the past week, trading at .505. Its market capitalization is currently up by 2%, but its trading volume has decreased by over 36% in the past 24 hours.
3 Signs That A Bitcoin Supply Shock Could Be Just Days Away
The Bitcoin community is currently abuzz with discussions of an impending supply shock, a market phenomenon where demand outstrips supply, potentially leading to a substantial price increase. Indicators from various sectors within the market are currently converging, suggesting that such an event may be closer than many anticipate. Here’s an in-depth look at three signs for an impending supply shock:
#1 Surging Demand For Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin ETFs have been creating an exceptionally large demand since their launch. Initially, this demand surge was somewhat moderated due to significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC). However, day 13 of the Bitcoin ETFs showed once again that the Grayscale outflows are slowly slowing down (yesterday: 0.7 million, previously 1.7 million), while the last two trading days saw net inflows for all ETF issuers of around 0 million.
Dan Ripoll, managing director at Swan, provided a detailed analysis on the sheer magnitude of this. “The Bitcoin spot ETFs have already snatched up 150,500 BTC in just 13 trading days. They are buying at a rate of 12,000 BTC per day. Now, let’s KISS (keep it simple stupid). There are only 900 BTC per day being issued. BTC is being bought up at a rate of 13x daily issuance. In 3 months, the issuance will be cut in half, driving the demand/supply imbalance to a staggering 26x daily issuance!”
Furthermore, Alessandro Ottaviani, a respected Bitcoin analyst, underscored the potential market shift, stating, “Now that the Bitcoin ETF inflow will always be higher than the Grayscale outflow, the only way to accommodate that demand will be through an increase of price. Once we reach k and even more after the new ATH, Institutional FOMO will be officially triggered, and it will be something that the human being has never experienced.”
WhalePanda, a renowned crypto analyst, highlighted recent activities, adding credibility to the brewing supply shock: “Yesterday another ~0 million net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs with Blackrock doing a solid 0 million all by itself. Two days of 0 million inflow, the price didn’t rally much yesterday, but a couple of days like this, and you’ll see what kind of supply shock this will have on BTC.”
#2 Massive Bitcoin Miner Selling Absorbed
Despite a substantial flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges, the market has shown remarkable resilience. According to a report from Cryptoquant:
“Yesterday, the flow of coins in miner wallets going to spot exchanges recorded the highest value since May 16, 2023. In total, more than 4,000 Bitcoins flowed to spot exchanges, around 3 million in selling pressure. However, this selling pressure was calmly absorbed by the market.”
It’s critical to note that despite these interactions, the reserves in mining portfolios have remained consistent since the beginning of January, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed the selling pressure without significant price depreciation.
#3 Stablecoins Aka “Dry Powder” On The Rise
The stablecoin aggregated market cap serves as a precursor to potential market movements. Recently, the stablecoin aggregated market cap has shown a significant rebound, moving from a bottom of 9.5 billion in mid-October 2023 to nearing 0 billion.
This rise in stablecoin reserves is often interpreted as “dry powder,” ready to be deployed into assets like Bitcoin, potentially further accelerating the supply/demand mechanics. Alex Svanevik, founder of on-chain analysis platform Nansen, remarked on the correlation between stablecoin reserves and BTC price: “When stables on exchanges peaked, BTC price peaked.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,848.
3 Signs That A Bitcoin Supply Shock Could Be Just Days Away
The Bitcoin community is currently abuzz with discussions of an impending supply shock, a market phenomenon where demand outstrips supply, potentially leading to a substantial price increase. Indicators from various sectors within the market are currently converging, suggesting that such an event may be closer than many anticipate. Here’s an in-depth look at three signs for an impending supply shock:
#1 Surging Demand For Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin ETFs have been creating an exceptionally large demand since their launch. Initially, this demand surge was somewhat moderated due to significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC). However, day 13 of the Bitcoin ETFs showed once again that the Grayscale outflows are slowly slowing down (yesterday: 0.7 million, previously 1.7 million), while the last two trading days saw net inflows for all ETF issuers of around 0 million.
Dan Ripoll, managing director at Swan, provided a detailed analysis on the sheer magnitude of this. “The Bitcoin spot ETFs have already snatched up 150,500 BTC in just 13 trading days. They are buying at a rate of 12,000 BTC per day. Now, let’s KISS (keep it simple stupid). There are only 900 BTC per day being issued. BTC is being bought up at a rate of 13x daily issuance. In 3 months, the issuance will be cut in half, driving the demand/supply imbalance to a staggering 26x daily issuance!”
Furthermore, Alessandro Ottaviani, a respected Bitcoin analyst, underscored the potential market shift, stating, “Now that the Bitcoin ETF inflow will always be higher than the Grayscale outflow, the only way to accommodate that demand will be through an increase of price. Once we reach k and even more after the new ATH, Institutional FOMO will be officially triggered, and it will be something that the human being has never experienced.”
WhalePanda, a renowned crypto analyst, highlighted recent activities, adding credibility to the brewing supply shock: “Yesterday another ~0 million net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs with Blackrock doing a solid 0 million all by itself. Two days of 0 million inflow, the price didn’t rally much yesterday, but a couple of days like this, and you’ll see what kind of supply shock this will have on BTC.”
#2 Massive Bitcoin Miner Selling Absorbed
Despite a substantial flow of coins from miner wallets to spot exchanges, the market has shown remarkable resilience. According to a report from Cryptoquant:
“Yesterday, the flow of coins in miner wallets going to spot exchanges recorded the highest value since May 16, 2023. In total, more than 4,000 Bitcoins flowed to spot exchanges, around 3 million in selling pressure. However, this selling pressure was calmly absorbed by the market.”
It’s critical to note that despite these interactions, the reserves in mining portfolios have remained consistent since the beginning of January, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed the selling pressure without significant price depreciation.
#3 Stablecoins Aka “Dry Powder” On The Rise
The stablecoin aggregated market cap serves as a precursor to potential market movements. Recently, the stablecoin aggregated market cap has shown a significant rebound, moving from a bottom of 9.5 billion in mid-October 2023 to nearing 0 billion.
This rise in stablecoin reserves is often interpreted as “dry powder,” ready to be deployed into assets like Bitcoin, potentially further accelerating the supply/demand mechanics. Alex Svanevik, founder of on-chain analysis platform Nansen, remarked on the correlation between stablecoin reserves and BTC price: “When stables on exchanges peaked, BTC price peaked.”
At press time, BTC traded at ,848.