On July 1, 2024, at 8 a.m. EDT, ethereum is trading for ,457, with an intraday price range between ,374 and ,514. The 24-hour trading volume reached .35 billion, contributing to a market capitalization of 5 billion on Monday morning. Ethereum The ETH/USD 1-hour chart highlights a strong uptrend originating around ,348. The sharp rise […]
Bitcoin News
Major Bitcoin Developments Points To A Wilder Bull Cycle Than Anticipated
Lark Davis, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst and trader, has identified several significant developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem that could trigger an even more intense bull cycle than initially anticipated. Davis’s perspective delves into the revolutionary changes in the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as institutional and global acceptance, which hold the potential to accelerate the current bull market.
According to the analyst, there is about to be a big shock to the Bitcoin supply. This is a result of miners now being able to produce just 450 BTC each day, due to the recently concluded Bitcoin Halving event, which cut down miners’ reward in half.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Poised To Catalyzed Prices
Another key catalyst pointed out by Davis is the US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Since the approval of the products by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10, over 3,000 BTC have been purchased on a daily basis. Consequently, BTC witnessed a surge of nearly 60%, rising from around ,000 to ,000 after the SEC green light BTC spot ETFs.
The latest country to approve the Spot Bitcoin ETFs is Hong Kong. Two weeks ago, the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong granted approval for BTC Spot ETFs to multiple leading asset managers, thereby positioning the city as a primary hub for these products. Given the previous impact of the funds propelling BTC to a new all-time high, the approval of the products in HK could cause the asset to see another surge in value.
Hong Kong’s move to approve the spot ETF products, which have already started trading today, has inspired other Asian countries, such as South Korea, Japan, and Singapore, to consider doing the same. On the other hand, the Australia Securities Exchange is already on the verge of accepting the funds within the year.
As a result of these developments, institutions from all around the world are vying for a share of the Bitcoin market. This could trigger a much broader adoption of BTC, thereby impacting prices significantly.
Davis highlighted that the availability of Bitcoin on all exchanges is presently at a record low, and the OTC desks are getting low. Due to this, the crypto expert believes this current bull cycle will be far crazier than predicted.
BTC Prices Continue To Struggle
Despite the funds clearance in Hong Kong, BTC has yet to witness major price movements, as it continues to struggle between ,000 and ,000. Given this, several analysts are anticipating a further price decline in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin is currently trading at ,322, indicating a decline of 1.60% in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume has increased by 41%, but its market cap is down by over 1% in the past day.
SEC Anticipated To Reject Spot Ethereum ETFs In Upcoming Decision, ETH Price Takes 5% Hit
Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a significant 5% price drop. This drop comes amid growing speculation that the highly anticipated Ethereum ETFs will likely be rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the upcoming May deadline.
US Bitcoin ETF Issuers Brace For SEC’s Expected Denial
According to a recent Reuters report, various US Bitcoin ETF issuers and firms anticipate the SEC’s denial of their applications to launch ETFs tied to the price of ETH.
These expectations have been fueled by “discouraging meetings” between the applicants and the regulatory agency in recent weeks, as disclosed by four individuals familiar with the matter.
Prominent investment firms such as VanEck, ARK Investment Management, and seven other issuers have submitted filings with the SEC to list ETFs that would track the spot price of Ethereum.
As the first in line, VanEck’s and ARK’s applications are subject to the SEC’s decisions by May 23 and May 24, respectively.
The sources involved in the meetings between Bitcoin ETF issuers and the SEC have reported that the discussions have been primarily “one-sided,” with agency staff not engaging in substantive details about the proposed products.
This starkly contrasts the intensive and detailed discussions between issuers and the agency before the SEC’s landmark approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.
The issuers argued during the meetings that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum futures-based ETFs by the SEC in October set a precedent for the spot ETH products. They also made efforts to address potential regulatory concerns.
Despite their arguments, the report notes that the SEC staff did not clarify specific concerns or engage in meaningful dialogue, further indicating a possible denial of the requests.
Setback For Crypto Industry
If these expectations materialize, it would be a setback for the cryptocurrency industry, which had hoped that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs would pave the way for similar products and contribute to the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies.
According to Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF analysis at data firm VettaFi, the likely delay in approval or rejection until later in 2024 or beyond has left the regulatory landscape uncertain.
While some issuers have expressed their intention to submit additional disclosure paperwork to continue the conversation with the SEC, the overall sentiment indicates a growing belief that the applications will be rejected.
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck has already stated that the company’s application will likely be rejected, while ARK Investment Management has yet to comment.
Rejected Ethereum ETFs Could Spark Potential Court Battles
Several applicants expect the SEC to cite broader issues, such as the nature and depth of statistical data on the underlying ETH market, as reasons for their decision in the event of ETF rejections.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which has filed for a spot in Ethereum ETF, believes that the SEC may require more time to observe Ethereum futures and gather additional data.
Industry insiders further speculate that rejecting Ethereum ETFs could potentially lead to legal action, with one source suggesting that the courts may get involved before Ethereum ETFs eventually become a reality.
The anticipated rejection has already influenced the price of Ethereum, with Hong Fang, president of the crypto exchange OKX, stating that the cryptocurrency is experiencing downward pressure as market participants factor in the likelihood of a negative outcome.
Currently, ETH is trading at ,100, further highlighting the cryptocurrency’s persistent downtrend over broader time frames. Over the past fourteen and thirty days, the token has experienced significant declines of 12% and 14%, respectively.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Miners Remain Optimistic About Future Despite Anticipated Revenue Loss
Although Bitcoin’s halving is expected to result in reduced block rewards for miners, several CEOs of bitcoin mining firms maintain a bullish outlook. In addition to investing in more efficient equipment, miners believe spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will continue to drive up the value of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Halving to Cost Miners Billions in […]
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin’s Path to Halving — Anticipated Increase in Difficulty Sets Stage
Based on current metrics, the Bitcoin blockchain is set to undergo another difficulty adjustment before the halving, with an anticipated increase of 1.2% to 2.16% around April 11, 2024. Following this adjustment, there will be 1,344 blocks remaining until the reward is halved. Estimated Increase in Difficulty Precedes Halving In April, bitcoin (BTC) miners face […]
Bitcoin News
JPMorgan Warns of Incoming Bitcoin Selloff With Anticipated $3 Billion Grayscale Outflow
Global investment bank JPMorgan has warned of additional outflow from Grayscale’s bitcoin fund, cautioning that it will put “further pressure on bitcoin prices over the coming weeks.” The bank’s analyst also explained that the billion inflow into new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles” or “from retail investors shifting from digital wallets held with exchanges/retail brokers to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs.”
JPMorgan Warns of Looming Bitcoin Selloff
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou shared his bitcoin’s price outlook on Linkedin Friday, specifically the impact of spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches and outflows from Grayscale’s bitcoin fund. Grayscale converted its bitcoin trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved it along with 10 other funds on Jan. 10.
“The bitcoin price declined by more than 10% since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs last week,” the JPMorgan analyst described. “It appears that profit taking, i.e. buy the rumor/sell the fact dynamics, took place in recent days as we had previously feared. The price of BTC rose past K in anticipation of the spot bitcoin ETF approval but dropped after the approval. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at ,697.
“The .5bn outflow from the Grayscale’s GBTC fund in particular has acted as a drag. It looks like GBTC investors who over the past year had been buying the GBTC fund at a significant discount to NAV to position for its eventual ETF conversion, have been taking full profit post ETF conversion by exiting the bitcoin space entirely rather than shifting to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs,” Panigirtzoglou detailed.
Noting that he has previously estimated that up to billion had been invested into GBTC in the secondary market during 2023 to take advantage of the discount to NAV, the JPMorgan analyst explained:
If the previous bn estimate proves correct and given .5bn has exited already then there could be an additional .5bn still to exit the bitcoin space via profit taking on GBTC thus putting further pressure on bitcoin prices over the coming weeks.
Cumulatively, Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF has seen an outflow of 50,106.59 BTC since Jan. 12, valued at over billion.
Panigirtzoglou also shared his analysis of the other spot bitcoin ETFs that launched on Jan. 11, including Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
“Outside GBTC, the other spot bitcoin ETFs got a decent bn of inflow in only four days: Thursday 11th, Friday 12th, Tuesday 16th, and Wednesday 17th. This is comparable to the inflows seen during previous bitcoin product launches such as the launch of CME bitcoin futures or the launch of futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” the JPMorgan analyst noted, adding:
As expected most of this bn of inflow reflects a rotation from existing bitcoin vehicles such as futures-based bitcoin ETFs which show outflows of close to 0mn since last Thursday or from retail investors shifting from digital wallets held with exchanges/retail brokers to cheaper spot bitcoin ETFs.
What do you think about JPMorgan’s bitcoin price prediction and the estimated outflow from Grayscale? Let us know in the comments section below.
Bitcoin ETF Approval Anticipated To Trigger Fiat Influx Of $24-50 Billion
In a recent report released by Matrixport, a digital assets financial services platform, the spotlight shifts beyond Bitcoin (BTC) as the eagerly anticipated approval of a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could have far-reaching effects.
According to the analysis, not only could the Bitcoin market experience a significant boost, but Tether (USDT) and the broader crypto market could also see positive outcomes.
Potential Impact On Bitcoin
Matrixport’s foresight, outlined in their 2023 outlook report published on December 9, 2022, projected a substantial crypto rally driven by factors such as lower US inflation and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
This projection anticipated strong rebounds for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), along with a notable decrease in volatility.
Surrounding the approval of these pending applications, a standout performer in the market has been Grayscale Investments’ Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with its share prices surging by an impressive 167% year-to-date, outpacing Bitcoin’s 71% growth.
While GBTC’s net-asset-value (NAV) discount marginally narrowed from -45% to -43% at the beginning of the year, the game-changing moment arrived when BlackRock announced its ETF application on June 15, 2023.
Matrixport’s earlier reports analyzed the US registered investor advisor (RIA) community, comprising approximately 15,000 advisors overseeing around trillion.
Recognizing the potential of this group, the report suggests that even a modest 1% allocation recommendation for Bitcoin would result in approximately billion in inflows.
,000 BTC Price Projection
Drawing a parallel with precious metals ETFs boasting an estimated 0 billion in market capitalization, and assuming that between 10-20% of precious metal ETF investors explore a Bitcoin ETF as a diversification tactic against monetary debasement and inflation hedges, the potential influx into the Bitcoin ETF could reach a significant -24 billion.
The report speculates on the implications for Tether’s market capitalization by looking at the potential impact of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF approval.
Acting as a proxy for potential ETF inflows, a billion increase in Tether’s market cap could conservatively push Bitcoin’s price to ,000. With an even larger influx of billion resulting from a 1% allocation by RIAs, Bitcoin could rally to ,000.
Overall, Matrixport’s analysis sheds light on the potential ripple effects of Bitcoin ETF approval, extending beyond Bitcoin’s immediate market and encompassing Tether and the wider cryptocurrency landscape.
As market participants eagerly await regulatory decisions, the industry remains poised for potential growth and transformation.
As of the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency in the market, Bitcoin (BTC), is trading at ,700, reflecting a 1.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
It is worth noting that BTC has successfully maintained the gains it has made since mid-September. During this period, the cryptocurrency broke its short-term downtrend structure after reaching its peak for the year at ,800 on July 13.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Miners Sail Through Over 400 Difficulty Changes With 13 More Anticipated Before the Halving
In 189 days or 27,000 blocks, Bitcoin’s block reward is anticipated to halve. Within this period, around 13 adjustments in Bitcoin’s difficulty are expected. The network’s difficulty indicates the complexity of finding a hash below a particular target, essentially representing the computational power needed to mine a block. This self-regulation, embedded in Bitcoin’s code, ensures steady block times, predictable issuance, and network security.
As Bitcoin Halving Approaches, Miners Face More Than a Dozen Difficulty Retargets After Weathering 400+
Bitcoin’s difficulty saw a 6.47% increase this week, surpassing the 61 trillion mark at block height 812,448. This marked the cryptocurrency’s 403rd difficulty epoch, some of which included retargets with no change. In basic terms, Bitcoin’s difficulty measures the challenge of identifying a new block relative to its easiest potential level.
This measure, denoted by a specific number, is adjusted by the Bitcoin protocol every 2,016 blocks — approximately every two weeks — based on the time taken by miners to discover those 2,016 blocks. The difficulty adjustment ensures a consistent discovery of new blocks by miners, regardless of the number of miners in the network.
Notably, during its initial phase at block height 2,016, the difficulty didn’t alter due to a lack of mining activity. The justification for an increase or decrease hinges on the time required to process 2,016 blocks. Ideally, blocks should surface every ten minutes, totaling approximately two weeks for 2,016 blocks.
If these blocks are discovered quicker than this ten-minute benchmark and the block discovery rate accelerates, the difficulty escalates. Conversely, if it lags, the difficulty diminishes. After 19 different epochs of 2,016 blocks, at block height 40,320, Bitcoin’s difficulty rose for the first time by 100% on February 14, 2010.
The February 2010 adjustment marked Bitcoin’s second most significant change, surpassed only by a staggering 302.22% leap at block height 68,544 on July 16, 2010. Just three days before this monumental shift, the difficulty had surged at block height 66,528, recording the third-largest jump with an ascent of 95.65%.
Fast forward to May 26, 2011, and the fourth most pronounced hike transpired, with a 78.15% uptick at block height 127,008. Not far behind, the fifth most substantial surge in difficulty occurred on June 24, 2011, at block height 133,056, showcasing a 57.27% increment. Some significant upward shifts were witnessed at block 52,416, block 86,688, and block 124,992.
On the flip side, July 3, 2021 bore witness to the steepest negative shift in Bitcoin’s history at block height 689,472, plummeting by 27.94%. Following closely, October 30, 2011, saw the second sharpest dip at block height 151,200, registering an 18.03% decline. The difficulty nosedived by 16.05% at block height 655,200, decreased by 15.97% at block 685,440, and took a 15.95% tumble at block height 622,944. Rounding out the top eight downward adjustments are block 552,384, block 149,184, and block 681,408.
Bitcoin’s difficulty will persistently adapt, responding to the ebb and flow of miners within its network. To date, miners have amped up their hashrate, pushing it by an impressive 0.68 exahash per second (EH/s) daily. Remarkably, despite 15 difficulty increases in 2023, the hashrate still surged, tacking on an extra 194 EH/s in under a year.
What do you think about miners dealing with more than 400 difficulty adjustments over the years? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
Bitstamp Makes Highly Anticipated XRP Announcement, But Does It Live Up To The Hype?
On Wednesday, August, 2, crypto exchange Bitstamp made a cryptic tweet teasing a new announcement and development for XRP. The exchange kept its promise and made the announcement. However, did it live up to the expectations and hype?
The Big Announcement
Popular digital asset exchange platform Bitstamp has recently unveiled its highly anticipated XRP announcement. The new feature allows users to stake their XRP holdings and earn long-term 2% APY in rewards. This offering is part of the platform’s creative Bitstamp Earn Lending Program, which offers users a reliable and secure means to lend their XRP holdings and earn rewards in return.
Bistamp’s lending service stands out because of its numerous benefits that provide participants with confidence in the whole lending procedure. Bitstamp will also not convert or lend users’ assets without explicit consent and instructions. To partake in XRP staking, users of the platform can easily navigate to the Earn Lending column on Bitstamp. While on the section, they will be offered an option to stake their XRP and earn the mouth-watering 2% APY rewards.
To bolster trust and entrench transparency, Bitstamp has partnered with Tesseract, a renowned firm that is specialized in exclusive lending to trusted borrowers. Tesseract will conduct thorough credit and risk evaluations on all prospective borrowers, thereby augmenting the general safety and reliability of the lending service.
Bitstamp will also render monthly performance reports to enhance transparency. The reports will cover key metrics, such as the risk profile of borrowers, portfolio concentration, and collateral levels.
Members of XRP React
The recent announcement has sparked a wave of expectations and reactions within the XRP community. The announcement of the 2% APY on XRP lending has been met with disappointment as community members expected a more groundbreaking revelation.
Community members had previously speculated on the nature of the announcement, with some XRP proponents speculating that Bitstamp may consider a full integration with the XRP Ledger (XRPL) decentralized exchange (DEX).
Popular XRP community members like Dig Perspective emphasized that while the 2% APY looks good, the community expected something more remarkable.
No offense @Bitstamp. 2% is great but we were looking for a bit more,if you have it to share? https://t.co/0iinJWFYi6
— Digital PerspectivesPermaBull (@DigPerspectives) August 3, 2023
Whichever way it goes, it remains to be seen if Bitstamp will live up to its promises.
XRP’s price is currently trading at .66, representing a 0.65% and 7.17% decline on the daily and weekly charts, respectively.
Banks Not Getting Anticipated Benefits From Rate Hikes, ECB Executive Admits
Eurozone banks are profitable but the benefits from higher interest rates may be smaller than expected, according to the deputy head of the single currency area’s monetary authority. The official noted that while most of the tightening has been done already, more rate increases are to come.
Euro Banks Have Solid Fundamentals, ECB’s de Guindos Says, Rate Raises to Continue
The turmoil in the eurozone’s banking sector has been “short-lived” due to limited exposure to bank stress in the U.S. and Switzerland and shielding regulations, Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Luis de Guindos said during a banking conference in Spain.
Euro area banks are weathering the storm also thanks to solid fundamentals in key areas such as resilience, liquidity, and profitability, the high-ranking official emphasized. However, he also thinks there is no room for complacency amid a challenging outlook that creates uncertainties.
“While higher interest rates boost banks’ net interest income, the benefits could be somewhat smaller than previously anticipated given a slowdown in lending growth and the inversion of the yield curve,” de Guindos said in his speech published by the ECB on Wednesday.
The executive pointed out that according to the latest euro area bank lending survey, demand for corporate and housing loans has decreased significantly, slowing down its landing in March, while credit standards tightened considerably in the first quarter of 2023.
“There are two sides to rising interest rates. Certainly, they have a positive impact on earnings. But on the downside, they heighten interest rate risk,” Luis de Guindos elaborated. His comments come after the ECB slowed the pace of its rate hikes in early May to 25 basis points.
During the event in Madrid, Guindos remarked that the ECB’s future policy decisions in that regard will depend on data about the underlying inflation which remains more persistent than expected. Quoted by Bloomberg, he stated:
We still have a way to go in the tightening journey. Surely we’ve carried out most of it, but there’s still a way to go.
The ECB is trying to bring inflation in the eurozone down to its 2% target. While markets are betting on another two increases, some members of its Governing Council have indicated that rate hikes may continue beyond the summer. “Vulnerabilities persist, and we need to closely monitor the situation to safeguard financial stability,” Luis de Guindos insisted.
Do you think further interest rate hikes may hurt euro-area banks? Share your thoughts on the subject in the comments section below.