Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a gold market analyst, has predicted a new multi-year bull market for gold. According to different factors, including the low percentage of gold as part of the global international reserves, and the size of the equity market, gold prices might be preparing to rise, putting prices of ,000 per ounce in the realm […]
Bitcoin News
Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin At $150,000, ETH At $8,000 By Year-End
Standard Chartered’s latest research notes offer a very bullish outlook for the major digital assets, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), by the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts project Bitcoin could reach 0,000, while Ethereum could hit the ,000 mark.
These projections come amidst a backdrop of significant developments in the crypto space, including the launch of Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Ethereum’s recent Dencun upgrade.
Bitcoin’s Path To 0,000
The bank’s research delves deep into the factors propelling Bitcoin’s potential surge to 0,000 by year-end. Central to this projection is the influence of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which, since their launch on January 11, have seen rapid inflows exceeding increases in open interest.
According to the bank, this suggests a more robust and sustainable positioning for Bitcoin, distinct from previous speculative peaks. “Rapid inflows to the new Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs have dominated […] Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows,” Geoff Kendrick and Suki Cooper elucidate, highlighting the newfound stability in Bitcoin investment trends.
Three pivotal analyses form the cornerstone of Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin valuation:
- Gold Analogy: Drawing parallels with the gold market’s response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates Bitcoin could rise to the 0,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase from its pre-ETF price.
- Two-Asset Optimization: By optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level around 0,000.
- ETF Inflows Correlation: Linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and Bitcoin price points to a possible 0,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s midpoint estimate of billion.
Standard Chartered notes that these three measures suggest “that 0,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, […] and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.”
Further the research notes that an “overshoot to 0,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.” Previously, the bank only predicted a Bitcoin price of 0,000 by the end of 2024.
Ethereum’s Road To ,000
Ethereum’s expected climb to ,000 by the end of 2024 is anchored in two transformative developments: the Dencun upgrade and the expected approval of ETH spot ETFs. The recent Dencun upgrade, by significantly lowering transaction costs on layer 2 blockchains, enhances Ethereum’s competitive edge.
“Ethereum (ETH) has just undergone the ‘Dencun’ upgrade, which dramatically lowers the cost of transactions […] making ETH more competitive,” the research notes.
The forecast also hinges on the anticipation of US SEC approval for ETH ETFs by May 23, a decision poised to catalyze substantial inflows into Ethereum. Drawing from the Bitcoin ETF experience, Standard Chartered expects similar enthusiasm for Ethereum, with projected inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ETH (equivalent to roughly -45 billion).
This substantial capital infusion is seen as a crucial lever for Ethereum’s price surge. “We expect significant ETF-driven inflows to ETH […] This could drive ETH to the ,000 level by end-2024,” the bank elaborates, underscoring the parallel potential for growth akin to Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The Prognosis For 2025 And Beyond
Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered ventures into the terrain of 2025 predictions, where the bank sees the ETH-to-BTC price ratio ascending back to the 7% level, a hallmark of the 2021-22 period.
This adjustment forecasts an Ethereum price of ,000 by the end of 2025, given the projected Bitcoin level of 0,000. Such a scenario underscores the bank’s optimism about the enduring value proposition and growth potential of these leading digital assets in the medium term.
At press time, BTC traded at ,401.
Time To Exit Bitcoin? Crypto Analyst Predicts 75% Breakdown To $8,000
Bitcoin has been on a winning streak for the better part of October and the multiple surges since then have pushed the price above ,000 before correcting back downward. Even now, Bitcoin continues to show strength but not everyone is convinced that this winning streak will continue. One of these is a crypto analyst who has maintained that the price of Bitcoin will be headed back downward with an immense drop in price to crown the rally.
Seeing Bitcoin At ,000
The crypto analyst who goes by holeyprofit first posted their analysis of Bitcoin on TradingView on October 22, right at the start of the uptrend. At this point, the Bitcoin price was still hovering just around ,000, and the analyst posited that the price of asset would not be able to climb above ,000.
According to the analyst, the recovery would make investors want to get in the market because they believe the price of BTC would continue to go up. However, this would be a bull trap and a consistent downward trend would follow quickly.
Following the Bitcoin breakout just a few days later, the analyst updated the forecast but maintained that the price would return back downward. An October 25 update from the analyst read: “If this indeed going to be a reversal, the recent action would imply a very strong one.”
This sustained bearish expectation from the analyst prompted short positions which seemed to raised from ,000 to ,000. “Moved off the high a bit and so far we have early structural failure of the uptrend,” the post read. “Very possible we drop here and it’s just a pullback (Highly likely even in a bull move this would retrace, which is why the 34/35K short seems a no brainer to try again.”
Doubling Down On Bearish BTC Stance
The analysis from the crypto analyst had received a lot of backlash from Bitcoin bulls but holeyprofit remains unmoved in their resolution. Even after the BTC price continued to rise, the analyst maintains that the crypto is headed for the ,000 level.
The most recent iteration of the post points out that the crypto is actually at the point where they expect it to start the downtrend. This region around ,700 failed to hold on Sunday and has since broken back down into the ,200 level.
Holeyprofit addresses comments that they were trading against the trend saying that they were actually betting on the trend to hold. “This is where my models would suggest would be the best time to exit bull trades or at the very least trail stops to protect again a bear break,” the analyst said.
How An ‘Inconsequential’ Mistake Saw Bitcoin Crash To $8,000
Bitcoin is known to be a very volatile digital asset as its price is often wont to rise and fall unexpectedly, and sometimes without a clear reason. One of these instances of the digital asset flash-crashing was back in 2021 when the price of Bitcoin had fallen 87% on some exchanges in a matter of minutes. However, the mystery behind this flash crash has been unveiled two years after it first occurred.
Former Alameda Research Engineer Spills Secret
Alameda Research is the sister company of the now-defunct FTX crypto exchange run by Caroline Ellison who served as CEO until it collapsed. Following the bankruptcy, employees at the trading firm have, at various times, come forward to tell stories of what took place at the company. This time around, an ex-engineer Aditya Baradwaj is telling the story of how a simple mistake caused the company to lose tens of millions of dollars.
Baradwaj took to his X (formerly Twitter) account to reveal how an Alameda employee had unwittingly triggered a Bitcoin flash crash in 2021. According to him, the error was a result of two trading systems operated at the company.
PART 2: THE FAT-FINGER
or
The story of how a misplaced decimal point at Alameda Research caused a market crash that echoed around the world.
(1/n) #SBF #FTX pic.twitter.com/jCykh6rg1o
— Adi (e/acc) (@aditya_baradwaj) September 20, 2023
The ex-engineer explained that Alameda had semi-systemic strategies in which a complex automated trading system was controlled by model parameters set by traders. The second was manual trading which would be done when the former could not execute a trade due to a number of reasons.
In the case of the trader who triggered the flash crash, they had to manually enter a trade to sell a large tranche of BTC using Alameda’s manual trading system. However, the trader had failed to realize that the decimal point in the trade was off by a couple of spaces, which meant that they were selling the BTC at much lower prices than the current price.
The result of this simple error was Alameda selling off a sizable portion of BTC at pennies on the dollar which resulted in a flash crash on multiple exchanges. The crash was most prominent on the FTX and Binance exchanges, where prices fell from ,000 to ,000 in a matter of minutes.
Covering Up The Bitcoin Crash
The aftermath of the flash crash, according to the ex-engineer, involved Alameda rushing to put in place sanity checks that should have been available before any manual trades were executed. He notes that this was not out of the ordinary as they were always waiting for things to break before fixing them at the company.
“That’s usually how things worked at Alameda – we would wait until something broke, and then rush to fix it,” he said. Baradwaj also referred to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried saying that the utility gained after the events outweighed the costs incurred from poor risk checks and hacks.
He also pointed to Binance commenting on the flash crash with a statement that blamed a bug in the trading algorithm of one of their institutional traders. “I guess Caroline had made some phone calls,” Baradwaj said, referring to Alameda’s CEO.
Remember That Guy That Lost A Flashdrive With 8,000 BTC? Here’s What He’s Up To Now
James Howells, a Welsh Bitcoin investor and the man who inadvertently lost 7 million worth of BTC in a flash drive is seeking to file a lawsuit against Newport City Council (NCC) in the United Kingdom for refusing his requests to excavate the area he presumed he misplaced the hard drive.
Howells Threatens Legal Action Against NCC
After 10 years of searching for the elusive flash drive carrying a fortune of 8,000 BTC, Howells has taken an aggressive approach to his hunt and threatened the NCC with proper legal action that may see the council firmly bankrupt if the court rules in favor of Howells.
The NCC is a single-tier unitary authority that oversees the administration of all areas in Newport, one of the principal areas in Wales. Howells has been in contact with the council over the years, requesting permission to undergo a landfill excavation in the area that supposedly harbors the flash drive.
Howells claims that he has raised sufficient funds to propel the excavation work and only needed the council to give the go-ahead. However, the NCC has been adamant about its rejection despite Howells’ funding claims.
The council has consistently declined Howells’ requests for a landfill excavation, with reasons of environmental concerns and prioritizing working officers’ time who ensure the safety and well-being of Newport residents.
“In the current environment, we cannot justify wasting officers’ valuable time providing services to the residents of Newport,” a council spokesperson stated.
In response to the multiple rejections, Howells has stated that he would sue the council for damages worth 7 million. He has submitted a letter to the council, demanding a concession to perform a landfill excavation on Monday, September 18.
Following a failure to adhere to the ultimatum, Howells has requested a judicial review to evaluate the legitimacy of the council’s judgment to reject his Bitcoin recovery efforts.
NCC Can Keep 10% Of Recovered BTC
In an attempt to influence the decision of the NCC regarding the landfill excavation work, Howells has promised to deliver 10% of the total Bitcoin funds recovered. He has stated that he will use the funds to transform Newport into a “crypto-mecha.”
The Welsh crypto investor also offered to provide 50 Euros to all Newport residents and facilitate the implementation of crypto terminals in local shops.
Howells has been vigorously trying to recover his 8,000 BTC since 2013. With Bitcoin’s price over 1,000 times the value it was in 2013, the Welsh investor is desperate to locate the flash drive containing his potential fortune.
He has expressed his frustration and determination with the NCC’s rejections, stating “I’ve tried everything possible for 10 years; they didn’t want to play ball, so now we have to take the legal route.”
Bitcoin Rollercoaster: Analyst Forecasts $8,000 Dip Before Skyrocketing To $200,000
In his recent interview, Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Commodity Strategist, predicted Bitcoin’s potential fall amid the ongoing market downturn. However, it wasn’t all gloom from the seasoned analyst, as he also touched upon the longer-term prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency.
Will Bitcoin Touch ,000?
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has undergone a fair share of price fluctuations since its inception. In the interview, McGlone compared Bitcoin’s volatile nature to the days of the stock market. His predictions, grounded in his analytical observations, also prompted apprehension and agreement.
Mike McGlone’s interview was rife with insights into the cryptocurrency market, but one statement stood out: his belief that Bitcoin could plunge to a low of ,000 in the current bear market.
McGlone emphasized that despite the potential for such a drastic drop. Bitcoin remains the world’s top-performing asset. McGlone stated that Bitcoin hasn’t exhibited deflationary characteristics like Treasury bills and gold.
Instead, he pointed out that macroeconomic elements, particularly the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening policies, continue to have a pronounced effect on Bitcoin’s price.
Institutional Influence: Not the Immediate Boost Many Anticipate?
Another popular belief within the crypto community is that spot ETF approvals, and an influx of institutional investors would catapult Bitcoin’s price to new heights.
McGlone, however, expressed skepticism regarding this sentiment. In his view, while a spot ETF approval may sway market sentiment, it might not substantially impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory. McGlone suggested that the earliest spot ETF might not see daylight until next year.
On which spot ETF could potentially make the first move, McGlone’s bet is on BlackRock. Citing the institution’s commanding presence in the market and its reputation as the world’s leading asset manager, he believes BlackRock might lead the pack in the spot ETF space.
McGlone maintained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term bullish prospects despite these short-term projections. He reaffirmed his vision of the crypto giant eventually reaching a value of 0,000.
Meanwhile, following the announcement of Grayscale’s legal victory against the US Securities Exchange and Commission (SEC), Bitcoin has retraced noticeably from its Tuesday peak of ,974, dropping to ,885 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has also dipped along with its price, dropping from last Thursday’s peak of billion to billion in the past 24 hours. Notably, Bitcoin’s market cap currently sits at 3 billion when writing.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Iran Shuts Down Over 8,000 Illegal Crypto Mining Farms in 3 Years
Authorities in Iran have closed down more than 8,000 underground facilities for cryptocurrency mining in the past three years, local media reported. Despite the government’s crackdown, illegal crypto mining continues to account for a serious amount of energy consumption, official figures suggest.
Illegal Crypto Miners in Iran Steal 1.8 Billion kWh of Electricity, Official Says
Enterprises minting digital currencies outside the law in Iran have stolen 1.8 billion kilowatt hours (KWh) of electricity, according to a spokesperson for the electric power industry, quoted by the English-language Iranian daily Financial Tribune and the Bargh News portal.
“About 8,200 unauthorized centers for cryptocurrency mining have been identified and closed in the past three years, in which more than 246,000 active miners were using 680 megawatts (MW) of energy,” said Mostafa Rajabi-Mashhadi. It’s estimated that another 1,200 MW of power capacity is still being occupied by illegal miners in the country, he added.
Most of the electricity theft occurred in the provinces of Isfahan and Tehran, followed by Khorasan Razavi, Khuzestan, Markazi, Fars, and East Azerbaijan. By cracking down on illegal mining activities, the government wants to support the operations of licensed miners, the reports noted.
In July of 2022, the Iran Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Company (Tavanir) vowed to take severe measures against unlicensed crypto miners. By the end of 2022, the utility had found and closed down 7,200 unauthorized mining farms.
Iran legalized bitcoin mining in 2019 but has since halted legal operations on several occasions, citing power shortages during the summer and winter months, when electricity consumption usually spikes. That’s despite registered mining facilities paying at higher electricity rates than other industries in the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian Ministry of Energy requires owners of crypto mining hardware to report the location of their devices in the Comprehensive Trade System of the Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade, which issues the licenses. Failure to do so would result in hefty fines.
The latest data about the size of the ‘gray’ crypto mining sector has been released after the news earlier this week that the operator of the Tehran Stock Exchange has been fined for illegally owning and running 82 crypto mining rigs.
The machines were found and confiscated by the Economic Security Police of the Islamic Republic. Ali Sahraei, the chief executive of the exchange, resigned following their discovery in the organization’s basement in late 2021.
Do you think Iranians will continue to mine crypto underground, using subsidized electricity? Share your thoughts on the subject in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Stamps Emerge as New Image-Storage Trend on the Bitcoin Blockchain, Over 8,000 Stamps Minted So Far
After the Ordinal inscription process gained significant traction on the Bitcoin blockchain with more than 800,000 inscriptions to date, a new trend of non-fungible token (NFT) technology has emerged called Bitcoin Stamps. The image-storing technique is a new way of storing images on Bitcoin, and so far, more than 8,000 stamps have been minted.
From Ordinals to Stamps: A New Way to Store Images on Bitcoin Materializes
Bitcoin enthusiasts have been introduced to a new method of storing images on the Bitcoin network that’s different from the Ordinal inscription process that has become a popular trend in recent months.
The new Bitcoin Stamp scheme was created by the Twitter user Mike in Space, and a summary of the project is hosted on Github. Basically, the technology provides a way to split an image into numerous unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) by encoding it in Base64 text and leveraging the Counterparty protocol to broadcast it to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Stamps cannot be pruned like witness or signature data, and creating a Stamp is pricier than Ordinal inscriptions. Because of the expense, the Github summary of Bitcoin Stamps says, “the fewer the bytes, the better,” and recommends using “24×24 pixel, 8-color-depth PNG or GIF” files.
On March 31, 2023, the first 600 Bitcoin Stamps were stamped, and as of writing, there’s more than 8,000 stamps. A directory of Bitcoin Stamps is hosted at stampchain.io, and the project also has support from Counterparty’s xchain.io. There are also collections like Pixel Gods, and Bitcoin Stamps can be found on the Counterparty assets portal kaleidoscopexcp.com.
You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.#Bitcoin Stamps pic.twitter.com/xzpjR7sZCC
— Mike In Space! (@mikeinspace) April 3, 2023
The first Bitcoin Stamp, Stamp 0, was created four weeks ago on March 7, 2023, at 1:19 a.m. UTC. Of course, similar to Ordinals, there has been criticism of Bitcoin Stamps. When Mike in Space shared an image of a flow chart showing Bitcoin Stamp transactions, one person replied, “This is intentionally bloating the UTXO set rather than putting data in the witness… Why would you do this…?”
Mike responded, saying, “Witness data is prunable. The intent is permanence.” Others were enthusiastic about the project and asked how they could participate. Despite some opposition, at the end of the day, anyone can mint Bitcoin Stamps at any time without permission.
What do you think about the emergence of Bitcoin Stamps as a new image-storage trend on the Bitcoin blockchain? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
Analyst Predicts Gold Prices Might Exceed $8,000 in the Next Decade as Central Banks Lose Confidence in Foreign Currency
Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a gold market analyst, has predicted that gold might exceed prices of ,000 during the next decade, as the current Ukraine-Russia war, and the worldwide battle against inflation, shift the preference of central banks for foreign currencies to gold. The proposed long-term price model shows that each troy ounce of the metal might touch the ,000 mark.
Analyst Makes Case for ,000 Gold Prices
Jan Nieuwenhuijs, a gold market researcher, has predicted that the price of gold might exceed ,000 during the next decade, as central banks shift their reserve preferences due to macroeconomic factors and war. Nieuwenhuijs believes that the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and the global war against inflation, will trigger a change in the composition of reserves.
As part of his analysis, which considers the historical percentage of gold held by central banks as a key metric, Nieuwenhuijs states:
Central banks in aggregate have an unusual faith in foreign exchange, as gold’s percentage of total reserves accounted for 16% in 2022, against a historical average of 59%. These central banks, however, are starting to lose confidence in the currencies issued by their peers.
According to his model, if central banks stockpile 51% of their reserves in gold, the price of gold would reach ,000 per troy ounce. However, Nieuwenhuijs clarifies that while central banks will be the ones to spearhead this pivot to gold, private banks, and other organizations will also follow the trend.
Central Banks Show Strong Gold Demand
Central banks have been stockpiling gold in recent times. In 2022, central banks purchased a record amount of gold, with reserves going up by 1,136 tons, while reserves held in the form of foreign currencies went down by 0 billion. In Q3 2022 alone, close to 400 tons of gold were purchased by central banks, according to reports from the World Gold Council.
On March 2, the World Gold Council reported the demand for gold coming from central banks continued to be strong in 2023, as 31 tons of the precious mineral were added by central banks in January. Turkey was the country that purchased the most gold, acquiring 23 tons.
Other personalities have also alerted about the rise of gold and other scarce assets, such as bitcoin. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicted in February that gold could reach ,000 by 2025, also signaling the possibility of bitcoin reaching 0,000.
What do you think about the prediction of gold prices reaching ,000 or even ,000 in the coming decade? Tell us in the comments section below.
Bitcoin Price Could Fall To $8,000, Says Guggenheim CIO
Hearing more negative speculation would be unpleasant for the investors as the recent bloodbath’s catastrophic effects already slowed down crypto markets. But unfortunately, an expert predicted Bitcoin would go far below.
Scott Minerd, Chief officer at Guggenheim Partners, a global investment and advisory firm handling 5 billion under its management, speculated that the Bitcoin price could plummet to ,000. He is the same man who once said in December that “Bitcoin price should be 0,000.”
Related Reading | XRP Has Broken Below Its Long-Standing Support, What’s Next?
The speculation refers to a nearly 70% drop from today’s price of BTC, fluctuating around ,000.
BTC Could Fall With The Fed Being Restrictive
Speaking with the CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin in an interview held on Monday at World Economic Forum, Switzerland, he said;
When you break below 30,000 [dollars] consistently, 8,000 [dollars] is the ultimate bottom, so I think we have a lot more room to the downside, especially with the Fed being restrictive.
Minerd highlighted the relationship between BTC price and Fed regulation and tightening policies.
Following its previous high of November 10, when BTC’s price marked ,044, it decreased by around 58% of its value.
“Most of these currencies, they’re not currencies, they’re junk,” he added, saying that “I don’t think we’ve seen the dominant player in crypto yet.”
Comparing the current situation with the dotcom bubble of the early 2000s, he said;
“If we were sitting here in the internet bubble, we would be talking about how Yahoo and America Online were the great winners,” adding that “Everything else, we couldn’t tell you if Amazon or Pets.com was going to be the winner.”
In addition, he urges that digital currency is required to store value. As well as, become a medium of exchange and a unit of account. “I don’t think we have had the right prototype yet for crypto,” said Minerd.
Bitcoin price currently trades at over ,000. | Source: BTC/USD price chart from TradingView.com
Investors Seem Hesitant To Buy Bitcoin Dips
The collapse of stablecoins, including TerraUSD (UST) and its fellow token Luna, has caused the market to suffer a severe blow.
Edward Moya, an analyst from the well-known forex and CFD trading platform of America, OANDA, has commented that Bitcoin prices are steadied even with the broad risk rally on Wall Street. He added;
It looks like most crypto traders are hesitant to buy the dip. Which most likely means that the bottom has not been made.
Moreover, Moya talked about the European Central Bank President Christine, who previously said digital currencies are “worth nothing.”
Related Reading | Solana (SOL) Could Register An Upswing, Thanks To This Pattern
“It is unlikely that any head of a central bank will endorse bitcoin or the other top coins. Especially as we are years away from a digital euro or dollar,” Moya stated. “It looks like bitcoin won’t really attract massive inflows. Until investors believe most major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles.”
He speculated that giant coin prices will possibly remain choppy this summer.
Featured image from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com
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