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Bitcoin News
Ethereum Price Key Indicators Suggest A Strengthening Case For Surge To $3,800
Ethereum price is consolidating gains above ,400. ETH is showing positive signs and might soon aim for a move above the ,500 resistance zone.
- Ethereum is holding gains and consolidating below the ,500 resistance zone.
- The price is trading above ,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at ,420 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
- The pair seems to be setting up for a move toward the ,650 and ,800 levels.
Ethereum Price Remains Supported
Ethereum price formed a base above the ,350 level and started another increase, like Bitcoin. ETH broke the ,400 level to set the pace for more upsides.
There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the ,519 swing high to the ,305 low. The bulls are now active above the ,420 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at ,420 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.
Ethereum is now trading above ,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It is showing positive signs above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the ,519 swing high to the ,305 low.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near the ,500 level. The first major resistance is near the ,520 level. The next major resistance is near ,550, above which the price might gain bullish momentum. The next stop for the bulls could be near the ,650 level.
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com
If there is a move above the ,650 resistance, Ether could even rally toward the ,720 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of ,800.
Are Dips Supported In ETH?
If Ethereum fails to clear the ,520 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the ,420 level and the trend line.
The first major support is near the ,400 zone or the 100 hourly SMA. The next key support could be the ,350 zone. A clear move below the ,350 support might send the price toward ,320. Any more losses might send the price toward the ,150 level.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Level – ,400
Major Resistance Level – ,520
Ethereum: Historical Playbook Points To $3,800 In Coming Months
Renowned analyst Josh Olszewicz has shared some compelling insights on Ethereum’s price trajectory. Drawing parallels from historical patterns, Olszewicz’s analysis suggests that Ethereum might be gearing up for a significant rally in the coming months.
Historical Pattern: Ethereum Forms Ascending Triangle
Olszewicz starts by highlighting Ethereum’s current price pattern, jokingly stating, “Ethereum: ascending triangle 450 million years in the making w/fib extensions to k.” This ascending triangle, characterized by a flat top and rising bottom, has been forming since May 2022, and if history is any guide, it could be a bullish sign for Ethereum.
Descending volume, another feature of this pattern, further strengthens the bullish bias. However, Olszewicz cautions that the “bias remains bullish until price breaks below diagonal support.” He also points out the psychological resistance at ,000, noting it as an “extremely obvious signal that it’s go time, which should help the breakout.”
To bolster his analysis, Olszewicz draws parallels from Bitcoin’s past. He recalls, “take BTC in 2015/2016 [the price formed an ascending triangle for 210 days with descending volume] and BTC in 2018/2019 [ascending triangle for 130 days with descending volume] as examples.” In both instances, Bitcoin surged towards the Fibonacci extension levels post the breakout.
Ethereum itself isn’t a stranger to such patterns. Olszewicz cites, “ETH has also had previous examples in 2017 (bullish continuation) and 2019 (bullish reversal).” Each ascending triangle pattern lasted 180 days. Both times ETH surged towards the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level.
Drawing from these historical patterns, Olszewicz suggests that Ethereum is currently holding the potential to overshoot the 1.618 Fibonacci level and possibly reach the 2.618 level, which translates to a price of ,800. However, he wisely advises, “but don’t get out the imaginary profit calculator just yet, let’s break k first.”
ETH vs. BTC: Which One Is The Better Trade?
While Ethereum’s potential rally is intriguing, Olszewicz also delves into its performance relative to Bitcoin. He observes that Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, attributing this to the ETF narrative and Bitcoin’s dominance as hard money. He speculates, “the better trade may continue to be BTC/USD, especially with initial spot ETF inflows favoring BTC.”
However, if the ETH/BTC pair can break and sustain new highs, it might hint at a runaway trade for Ethereum. But Olszewicz remains skeptical, stating it’s “unlikely based on ETF flows.”
Olszewicz also doesn’t shy away from discussing potential bearish scenarios. He’s closely watching certain bearish ETH/BTC levels, including the current local low at 0.050 and the previous inverse head and shoulders neckline at 0.039.
For Bitcoin, he suggests a potential move to ,000, provided it maintains certain bullish conditions. He notes, “as long as we can maintain prices above the midline of the PF & stay in the cloud, we have a decent shot at reaching k before halving.”
Wrapping up his analysis, Olszewicz envisions a dream trade where Bitcoin breaks bullish first, possibly due to technicals or a spot ETF approval. In this scenario, Ethereum breaks ,000 but lags behind Bitcoin, leading to ETH/BTC getting “crushed, allowing for an eventual profit taking rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum”. However, he concludes with a word of caution: “without inflows, we ain’t movin.”
At press time, ETH traded at ,860.
Here’s Why Bitcoin’s Recovery From $3,800 Makes it the “Most Resilient Asset”
In early-March Bitcoin incurred some of the roughest price action it has ever seen, with the benchmark cryptocurrency finding itself caught within a capitulatory decline that led it from over ,000 to lows of ,800.
This meltdown occurred concurrently with the global equities market seeing a massive selloff as investors began growing aware of just how serious the Coronavirus pandemic was.
In the time since this occurred, however, Bitcoin has been caught within a steady uptrend that has allowed its price to nearly double from these lows, leading one analyst to call it the “most resilient asset in the world.”
These Characteristics of Bitcoin’s Ongoing Rebound are What Makes it so Resilient
The investment world has been captivated by the recent selloff seen in the oil market, with the commodity’s May futures expiry leading its price to decline into negative territory for the first time in decades.
This subsequently led the price of spot oil to similarly plunge, creating shockwaves that have gravely impacted companies and countries that are oil-reliant from a revenue perspective.
Some spot oil exchange traded funds even saw their trading halted in an effort to stop investors from panic selling.
Bitcoin – which can’t ever go negative but can see capitulatory declines like that seen in early-March – doesn’t have the same regulatory features as highly regulated markets like commodities, which means that the market must regulate itself.
This has led Luke Martin – a highly respected cryptocurrency analyst – to explain that Bitcoin’s subsequent recovery from its recent lows makes it highly resilient.
“Take a step back think about how BTC has almost completely recovered from the 50% drop in March. •No limit down or trading halted •No emergency meetings of producers to cut/alter supply •No government pledges to start buying. The most resilient asset in the world,” he noted, pointing to a chart showing Bitcoin’s nearly full recovery.
Image Courtesy of Luke Martin
The Future is Bright for BTC
Analysts don’t seem to think that this ongoing rebound will end anytime soon either, as one pseudonymous trader on Twitter recently noted that he doesn’t believe Bitcoin will decline much below ,000 before setting fresh all-time highs.
“Speculative but I don’t think we get BTC much cheaper than mid 5000s before ATH. Dips are for buying imo,” he explained.
Image Courtesy of CryptoBirb
The fundamental strength shown throughout the past five weeks is certainly an overtly bullish sign for Bitcoin, and this coupled with technical strength could mean major gains are imminent in the months ahead.
Featured image from Unsplash.
NewsBTC
Eerie Fractal: Bitcoin Bottomed at $3,800, Price Poised to Rally 25%
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin traders have been divided over whether or not the crypto market has bottomed. Interestingly, many have said no, simply citing the fact that there’s no telling how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how that uncertainty and economic damage will affect traditional markets, especially equities.
Though, a popular crypto trader recently shared a very familiar fractal seemingly confirming that the bottom is in.
Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin At ,000, FATF Regulation, Coinbase Backs Ethereum DeFi
Fractal: Bitcoin Bottom May Be In
Trader Coiner-Yadox recently shared the two charts seen below, accentuating that the recent price action is looking eerily similar to the bottoming process seen in late-2018 and early-2019: both of the charts depict a vertical drop into a bottom, an immediate rally from the bottom, then a drawn-out ascending triangle to kickstart a new bull phase.
The only thing that the recent price action is missing is it rallying out of the ascending triangle as Bitcoin did in early-2019.
Thus, BTC following this fractal to a T will see it rally past ,000 in the coming days.
Importantly, there are some key differences between the fractal’s basis and the current price action. These include but are not limited to: the last bottom took 140 days compared to the three-odd weeks for the current, and Bitcoin’s recent crash was due to a black swan event rather than simple market cycles.
Corroborating the cheery sentiment that the crypto market has bottomed, Bloomberg reported late last week that Bitcoin recently pushed above a key level of technical resistance, allowing the DVAN Buying and Selling Pressure Gauge to print a “positive divergence and a buy signal.”
The last time this signal was seen was at the start of January, just before BTC began a strong 50% rally to ,500 by the middle of February.
Some Beg to Differ
Although possible, there are some that have thrown cold water on this fractal, which would create a “V-shaped” recovery on the charts.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, when looking at Bitcoin’s chart through the perspective of Elliot Wave analysis, trader Smart Contracter thinks it remains bearish:
“[T]heres [sic] so many different ways you could count BTC here: either wxy, larger triangle, larger flat, I’m not too sure, the one thing that does stick out is the series of 3 wave moves and lack of 5 wave motives. [F]or this reason, I think its still too early to call a bottom.”
His sentiment was corroborated by other Elliot Wave-focused analysts, who explained that Bitcoin’s recent rally on declining volume looks “corrective,” suggesting a reversion lower is growing more and more likely as time elapses.
Smart Contracter is known for calling Bitcoin’s ,200 bottom in 2018 some six months in advance.
Featured Image from Shutterstock
NewsBTC
Eerie Fractal: Bitcoin Bottomed at $3,800, Price Poised to Rally 25%
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin traders have been divided over whether or not the crypto market has bottomed. Interestingly, many have said no, simply citing the fact that there’s no telling how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how that uncertainty and economic damage will affect traditional markets, especially equities.
Though, a popular crypto trader recently shared a very familiar fractal seemingly confirming that the bottom is in.
Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin At ,000, FATF Regulation, Coinbase Backs Ethereum DeFi
Fractal: Bitcoin Bottom May Be In
Trader Coiner-Yadox recently shared the two charts seen below, accentuating that the recent price action is looking eerily similar to the bottoming process seen in late-2018 and early-2019: both of the charts depict a vertical drop into a bottom, an immediate rally from the bottom, then a drawn-out ascending triangle to kickstart a new bull phase.
The only thing that the recent price action is missing is it rallying out of the ascending triangle as Bitcoin did in early-2019.
Thus, BTC following this fractal to a T will see it rally past ,000 in the coming days.
Importantly, there are some key differences between the fractal’s basis and the current price action. These include but are not limited to: the last bottom took 140 days compared to the three-odd weeks for the current, and Bitcoin’s recent crash was due to a black swan event rather than simple market cycles.
Corroborating the cheery sentiment that the crypto market has bottomed, Bloomberg reported late last week that Bitcoin recently pushed above a key level of technical resistance, allowing the DVAN Buying and Selling Pressure Gauge to print a “positive divergence and a buy signal.”
The last time this signal was seen was at the start of January, just before BTC began a strong 50% rally to ,500 by the middle of February.
Some Beg to Differ
Although possible, there are some that have thrown cold water on this fractal, which would create a “V-shaped” recovery on the charts.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, when looking at Bitcoin’s chart through the perspective of Elliot Wave analysis, trader Smart Contracter thinks it remains bearish:
“[T]heres [sic] so many different ways you could count BTC here: either wxy, larger triangle, larger flat, I’m not too sure, the one thing that does stick out is the series of 3 wave moves and lack of 5 wave motives. [F]or this reason, I think its still too early to call a bottom.”
His sentiment was corroborated by other Elliot Wave-focused analysts, who explained that Bitcoin’s recent rally on declining volume looks “corrective,” suggesting a reversion lower is growing more and more likely as time elapses.
Smart Contracter is known for calling Bitcoin’s ,200 bottom in 2018 some six months in advance.
Featured Image from Shutterstock
NewsBTC
Factor That Foresaw Bitcoin’s Mid-March Crash to $3,800 Is Flipping Bullish
Earlier this month, the price of Bitcoin fell off a cliff. On March 12th, the day that has since been dubbed “Black Thursday,” the cryptocurrency fell from ,700 to a price under ,000 in a near-record level move.
This move caught most investors with their pants down. Case in point: some billion worth of BitMEX positions were liquidated in a 24-hour period on that day alone. The thing is, there were red flags. One such red flag was that shared by Charlie Morris, founder of cryptocurrency analytics site ByteTree. Per his company’s data, he found that wallets mining Bitcoin had started to “sell less [coins] than they mine” around March 4th, just a week before the collapse.
Miners hoarding has “historically coincided with negative returns and reflects a weaker market bid” because “they want to protect the market which is too soft to sell into.”
#bitcoin miners have recently started to sell less than they mine. Historically, that has coincided with negative returns and reflects a weaker market bid. Miners are hoarding because they want to protect the market which is too soft to sell into. Bottom row turned green. pic.twitter.com/JPy0RqwEwQ
— Charlie Morris (@AtlasPulse) March 4, 2020
Morris backed up this assertion with this linked chart, which shows that whenever miners sell less than they mine, Bitcoin returns have been poor, with these periods actually accounting for much of the crypto’s losses.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Roar as U.S. Politician Proposes ‘Two Trillion Coins’ Idea
The thing is, ByteTree data has shown that miners have started to dump coins against the market, the inverse of the trend that predicted Bitcoin would see weakness earlier this month.
Bitcoin Mining Trend Is Bullish
According to a March 25th message from Morris, Bitcoin miners on that day sold 2,788 coins against 1,588 mined, resulting in .2 million in BTC sold that on a normal day would’ve been held.
Despite this added selling pressure, the price of the cryptocurrency didn’t drop, rather, the “market took it” and rallied. According to Morris’ analysis, this is a bullish sign.
Case in point: this chart from the analysis shows that whenever miners sell more than they mine (blue line), Bitcoin has outperformed the returns it posts during regular market conditions.
Despite this, there are some technical risks that may suppress the cryptocurrency.
Trader Nunya Bizniz found that Bitcoin’s weekly candle is currently below the bottom band of the non-linear regression curve that has acted as support for Bitcoin for over eight years of price action. In fact, the bottom band has started to act as resistance, not boding well for bull narrative.
BTC Weekly: Non-linear Regression Curve
Bottom band looks to be acting as resistance.@renato_shira pic.twitter.com/VOlQzD7Ogv
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) March 26, 2020
Related Reading: Ex-Goldman Sachs Exec: Bitcoin Likely to Surmount k Within 18 Months
Featured Image from Shutterstock
NewsBTC
Here’s Why Bitcoin Didn’t Bottom at $3,800 According to a Top Analyst
While Bitcoin seemingly remains in a bear trend, sentiment has spread over the past few days that the cryptocurrency market has bottomed; analysts cite the fact that BitMEX funding rates are decisively negative, suggesting an extreme bottom, along with other technical analysis-based evidence to back their lofty opinion.
But according to a top analyst, there is no way Bitcoin has bottomed yet. Here’s why.
Why Bitcoin Might Not Have Bottomed Yet
Over the past week, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable correlation with traditional markets; when traditional markets crashed on Monday, so did BTC, and when they saw record losses on Thursday, so did our favorite orange coin.
According to prominent cryptocurrency trader Cantering Clark, this correlation is a clear sign that the cryptocurrency market has not yet put in a bottom.
In a five-part Twitter thread published Saturday, he explained his thought process further:
“We essentially just went from Bull market to Bear market in under 20 days. The true extent of the knock on effects & damage has yet to even be revealed. We are seeing a fraction of what the reality is.”
Bitcoin has not bottomed because equities have not bottomed.
Go ahead and save this tweet.$BTC $SPX $ES
— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) March 14, 2020
He explained further that as it stands, some of the world’s “largest and most fundamentally important industries” are being infected, meaning that the stock market and financial system could continue to see continued pressure as time elapses. This, Cantering Clark wrote, will likely cause BTC to slide if equities see weakness:
“Bitcoin will be free to put in whatever positive price action it can when the major markets idle. As they say “When the cats away the mice will play” The moment equities shit the bed again Bitcoin will follow.”
The analyst further explained that there’s also no telling which crypto companies, including Bitcoin exchanges, will be affected by the global fallout of a recessionary event, further putting BTC at risk of collapse.
This sentiment has been echoed by others. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, prominent TradingView analyst CryptoBullet wrote that a recession should be the last thing crypto investors wish for:
“When there are concerns in the economy, when everyone is worried about a crisis and losing jobs, the last thing people want to do is speculate on some crazy cryptocurrency.”
Featured Image from Shutterstock
NewsBTC
Why Did Bitcoin’s Price Plunge 50% to $3,800 In 24 Hours?
Yesterday was undoubtedly one of Bitcoin’s worst days ever; in fact, yesterday’s 40% loss was only second to the BTC price collapse in the wake of the collapse of Mt. Gox, then the largest and most important crypto exchange. At the drop’s worst, the cryptocurrency was down 50% in a single 24-hour period, falling from ,700 to as low as ,800.
Unsurprisingly, many traders were caught with tier pants down during this move, so to say, with BitMEX reporting that nearly billion worth of Bitcoin positions on their exchange (majority long positions) were liquidated in this massive crash lower.
We’re fast approaching billion in Bitcoin long position liquidations today.
This is unprecedented.
— Cole Petersen (@ColePetersen14) March 13, 2020
This has left many wondering — what pushed BTC so far lower? And, more importantly, what comes next?
What Pushed Bitcoin Lower? Analysts Weigh In
Ross Middleton, a chief financial officer at crypto exchange DeversiFi, is pointing to weakness in traditional markets forcing institutional investors out of their positions on Bitcoin, which is an alternative asset that per traditional standards should be the first to go:
Traders are pulling money out of Bitcoin to fund their margin calls on other asset classes. Perhaps they think that there will be better short-term opportunities to go long other asset classes in the near future.
This was echoed by Raoul Pal — a former executive at Goldman Sachs and CEO of Real Vision. He said the drop may be related to “hedge funds that were long Bitcoin having to liquidate,” citing the fact that managers need to keep their portfolio within a certain risk level.
Indeed, Bitcoin’s volatility has spiked, corroborating Pal’s point. Though, there is a chicken and the egg situation with the volatility; more selling results in higher volatility, higher volatility results in more selling.
There’s also talk about an ongoing liquidity crisis in the back-rooms of Bitcoin market-makers. Purportedly, market-makers on certain exchanges have dumped all their positions, meaning there is no buy-side demand to support BTC.
Another Theory…
There is also one other theory.
Rumor has it that the PlusToken scammers moving coins may have triggered (or at least contributed to) the sell-off. Indeed, in the day prior to the dump, the operators of the multi-billion-dollar PlusToken scam were found to have moved over 0 million worth of BTC into mixing services for privacy reasons, then presumably dumped onto exchanges for fiat or fiat equivalents.
Featured Image from Shutterstock
NewsBTC
Bitcoin (BTC) Prices Down but Low Volumes above $3,800 Mean Bulls
- Bitcoin prices crumbling, ,800 likely
- Adoption slowed down. Twitch no longer supports Bitcoin and crypto as payment
- Participation level shrinks in response to low prices, volume averages 6.6k
By removing crypto support, Bitcoin adoption is taking a hit and partly fueling the current price meltdown. At this rate, it is likely that Bitcoin will retest ,800, but that is dependent on participation levels.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Fundamentals
Twitch, streaming service owned by Amazon has silently removed Bitcoin as subscription payment options for their global audience. By 2018, the company had more than one million users on average and over 2.2 million broadcasters. Before this change, Twitch users could pay for their subscription using Bitcoin (BTC) through BitPay.
Coincidentally, this decision come days after another Redditor noticed that Streamlabs upgraded and their new version doesn’t support cryptocurrencies. So far, there has been no official comment from Twitch explaining their decision.
Regardless, some users were angered and resorted to canceling all their subscription. Their frustration is reasonable. Twitch and Streamlabs had a fruitful synergy, and the popularity of the latter skyrocketed when a broadcaster received k in Bitcoin donations on Jan 12, 2019.
NEWS: Twitch streamer receives 20 #Bitcoin donation whilst playing #Runescape#Twitch streamer @Sick_Nerd received a 20 Bitcoin (approximately £57,000) donation from one of his viewers whilst playing Old School Runescape. Story by @JordanCoinRivet $BTChttps://t.co/GnXPj784T5
— Coin Rivet (@CoinRivet) January 14, 2019
However, commentators are speculating that low volumes could be a reason why. Another argument could be the lack of smart contract capability within the Bitcoin blockchain that allows for schedule payments like those common in custodial wallets as PayPal.
Candlestick Arrangement
After a stellar first half of Mar 2019, bears are back, and assets are back to red. At the time of press, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.3 percent and trading within a three-bar bear reversal pattern near our anchor bar’s highs.
Because of yesterday’s draw-down, BTC is melting, and bulls are at a disadvantage and unlikely to reverse losses of Feb 24. Therefore, at this pace, it is likely that prices will trend back to ,800, our breakout level.
As such, the complete reversal of Mar 21 gains and a close below the flexible support line in the 20-day MA means sellers are in control. In that case, we suggest exiting longs as bears step up with the first level of support expected at Mar 5 lows at around ,800.
Technical Indicators
Despite these lower lows, we are optimistic that prices will recover thanks to low volumes accompanying the drawdown. Note that Mar 25 bar was bearish but with low volumes at 6.9k. That is more than half that of Mar 16 at 13.9k. Even so, the dominant trend must have high volumes and if today’s bar closes a bear with increasing volumes, odds are BTC will sink to ,800 as sellers of Feb 24 flow back heaping pressure on the asset.
Chart courtesy of Trading View
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Prices Down but Low Volumes above ,800 Mean Bulls appeared first on NewsBTC.