Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) has shifted from a discount to a premium in its net asset value (NAV) for the first time since November 2021, as reported by ycharts.com metrics. This adjustment comes just before the expected debut of spot ether exchange-traded fund listings expected to launch later this month. On July 2, 2024, ycharts.com […]
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Bitcoin Price Could Massively Crash Like In May 2021, Warns Fund Manager
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the critical support level of ,000, reaching a low of ,914. Since Tuesday, Bitcoin has experienced a further 7% decline, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side.
Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming?
Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021. In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted the overlooked criticality of the current market dynamics.
Kang stated, “Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.”
He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated.
Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to ks.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable.
In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions.
Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability.
Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.”
What Happened In May 2021?
This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around ,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value. This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors.
In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn.
At press time, BTC traded at ,736.
Prospects of Ethereum ETFs Drive Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s NAV Discount to Lowest Since 2021
On May 21, with the potential approval of several spot ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw its discount to net asset value (NAV) reach its lowest point since 2021. Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s NAV Discount Diminishes to 2021 Levels About a week ago, Grayscale’s Ethereum […]
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This Crypto Expert Called The Bitcoin Top in 2021, Now He’s Calling The Bottom In 2024
As the Bitcoin price continues to fluctuate wildly, the question in every investor’s mouth right now is when the digital asset will find its bottom. For some, the bottom has already been met, while for others, there are still more price crashes to come. However, one analyst’s prediction in particular stands out and this is due to his track record of accurately calling the top of the market back in the 2021 bull market.
Crypto Expert Says Bitcoin Bottom Is In
Crypto expert Dave the Wave first came into prominence back in 2021 when he had accurately predicted the Bitcoin top. Given this, Dave’s analysis holds weight in the crypto market, so it is no surprise that his most recent prediction calling the Bitcoin bottom is making the rounds.
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In the analysis which was posted on X (formerly Twitter), the crypto analyst points to a number of indicators that show that the Bitcoin bottom has already been reached. One of these is the MACD which the analyst reveals is still far off from the levels from the last bull market.
In addition to the MACD still trending below this level, the crypto expert points out that the crypto market is more mature than it was. Given this maturing market, Dave the Wave stated: “It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see something different develop, pattern-wise, over the longer time frame.”
The analyst suggests that the Bitcoin low is actually in, and given that the price had fallen to ,000 a couple of weeks ago, Dave’s analysis suggests that that is as low as the price will go. If this holds, then it is possible that the Bitcoin price will not fall below ,000 before it resumes its bull rally.
BTC Price Expectations Still Bullish
Despite the slow momentum that has plagued the Bitcoin price, investors continue to be bullish on the cryptocurrency. This is evidenced by the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index maintaining a firm grip on the Greed territory, showing that investors are still willing to buy into the market.
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Furthermore, predictions from crypto analysts such as Rekt Capital have shown expectations for further price increases. Rekt Capital predicts that the BTC price will still cross 0,000 as long as the price is able to break above ,000 and hold this level.
However, elsewhere in social media, there is a change in tide for the BTC price as social sentiment begins to fall to bearish headwinds. Santiment, an on-chain data aggregation platform, revealed that the Bitcoin social sentiment has seen a 14% drop in the last week.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulating Like In 2021: Is BTC Ready For A 15X?
Bitcoin is moving sideways, posting drab price action, forcing participation to taper. But amid this consolidation and even fear of more losses, one analyst has shared data suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating at spot rates.
Are We Back To 2021? Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulating
In a post on X, the analyst noted that this re-accumulating pace is picking up momentum, mirroring a welcomed trend that preceded the impressive 2021 bull run.
Therefore, if long-term holders, or HODLers, accumulate, the probability of BTC rallying in the sessions ahead is elevated. Thus far, BTC has been trending above ,000, up 10% from the May 2024 lows.
For clarity, the data shared by the analyst uses Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) to classify long-term and short-term holders. Analyzing the age of UTXOs makes it easier to gauge the behavior of different investor groups.
Usually, UTXOs older than 155 days have “diamond hands” or long-term holders. Meanwhile, those who hold BTC for less than 155 days are short-term holders or often classified as “weak” hands.
They are usually traders or speculators interested in riding on price volatility, like in the first half of Q1 2024.
When long-term holders stopped distributing BTC in 2021, prices rose sharply. By November 2021, the coin had peaked at around ,000, lifting prices by nearly 1,500% from 2020 lows. It is unclear if BTC is ready for another 15X surge from spot rates, a move that would propel it to over 0,000.
BTC Has Strong Support At ,000, Analyst Urges Patience
While the on-chain data paints a bullish picture, some analysts advocate caution. Taking to X, one analyst notes that Bitcoin has strong support at around the psychological ,000 mark. The coin could stabilize if bulls soak in selling pressure and reject attempts for lower lows.
However, if prices dump below ,000, triggered by a news event, BTC may fall to as low as the ,000 to ,000 zone.
Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the analyst encourages investors to maintain a long-term perspective. Accumulating Bitcoin at these levels and exercising patience could be a winning strategy, the analyst says.
This preview would be especially true now that on-chain data shows that long-term holders are accumulating.
Before then, traders should watch price action. The coin is moving sideways, finding rejection at ,000. Even though prices are lower, the last day’s series of higher highs is encouraging and might spark demand.
Latest Bitcoin Top Is Different From 2021 Peak, Analyst Explains Why
An analyst has explained why the recent high in Bitcoin has experienced different market conditions than those observed during the 2021 bull run peak.
Bitcoin Liquidations Have Been Short-Dominated In Recent Market High
In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate pointed out how the latest 2024 high achieved following the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows has a major difference when compared to the 2021 peak.
The difference lies in the trend registered on derivatives markets. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the dominance of long liquidations in the sector over the last few years.
“Liquidation” here naturally refers to the act of forceful closure that any derivatives market contract undergoes on an exchange when it accumulates losses of a certain degree.
The risk of a contract getting liquidated becomes higher, and the more volatile the asset price gets. During sharp rallies and crashes, huge amounts of liquidation can pile up in the market.
From the chart, it’s visible that as the rally in the cryptocurrency had occurred this year, the short holders had been taking a beating. This was only natural as surges pile up losses for these investors betting on a decline, so price growth as rapid as the one witnessed would have pushed many of these contracts toward liquidation.
Interestingly, the scale of the short dominance maintained throughout the run, implying that the investors didn’t quite believe the run would continue any further at every point of the rally, so they bet against it.
This has also remained true in the recent stagnation following the top, as short liquidations have outweighed the long ones even though the price has decreased.
As is apparent in the graph, the 2021 peaks saw a different trend. Longs were getting liquidated as Bitcoin topped out during both the first half of the 2021 peak and the second half.
In those periods, the investors had become too greedy and were only betting on the rise to continue even when the asset had slowed down. This greed appears to haven’t overtaken the market in the bull run.
While the current Bitcoin rally differs from the last one in this metric, analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post another indicator where the trend appears to be similar to that observed in previous peaks.
This indicator is the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which basically tells us about the scale of dormant coin movement that’s happening in the market right now. It would appear that this metric had attained very high levels recently.
“Coin Days Destroyed has probably peaked,” says Maartunn. “Bitcoin’s price typically reaches its peak around the same time.” It should be noted that although this has been true for some of the tops, the 2021 peak took months to form after the metric peaked.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around ,200, up more than 5% over the past week.
Dogecoin Breaks Out Of Descending Triangle Like It Did In 2021, Analyst Sets $6 Target
The Dogecoin price action seems to have turned bearish after a bearish close to April. Projections for the meme cryptocurrency are not bullish in the short term, especially considering the fact that it is now experiencing a 47% price correction from its highest point in the current market cycle. Despite its recent plunge, one analyst believes all is still well with Dogecoin, and the crypto asset is only gearing up for a bull run into new price territories.
Dogecoin Repeating Behavior From Previous Bull Run
According to a recent analysis by popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Dogecoin’s current price action is setting up for a potential bull run, despite the cryptocurrency’s ongoing price correction. His analysis is based on interesting patterns on the Dogecoin price chart.
Although they are a very volatile asset class, patterns are an interesting way to predict the future movement of cryptocurrencies. Now, Dogecoin appears to be repeating some of the same patterns that led to its massive breakout in 2017 and 2021.
Specifically, Dogecoin broke out of a descending triangle pattern in the last quarter of 2023, a seemingly occurring trend and a first step for the cryptocurrency. As Martinez noted, the first time this breakout happened was in 2017. However, DOGE went on a 40% correction shortly after before resuming a 982% bull run. Again, a similar breakout of a descending triangle in 2021 saw the crypto retracing by 56% before skyrocketing by 12,197% to reach its current all-time high of .7316.
Now, in 2024, #DOGE has yet again broken out of a descending triangle!
It is currently undergoing a 47% price correction, very similar to previous cycles, which could ignite the next $DOGE bull run! pic.twitter.com/ZmuHmvIwei
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 1, 2024
Now, the recent DOGE correction in the past month after breaking out of a descending triangle means the crypto could be gearing up for a similar bounce up. According to the DOGE price chart shared by Martinez, the first step is breaking above resistance at .224. If it can hurdle that level, it opens up a run back to the 2021 high and a push-up to a first target of around .2.
Looking further out, Martinez’s chart shows an ultimate price surge above in this bull cycle. For this to happen, Dogecoin would need to regain momentum and rally over 4,700% from current levels over the coming months. While this price point looks overachieving, Dogecoin has pulled off epic rallies before, surging over 12,000% at one point in 2021 alone.
It has only been a few months into 2024 Dogecoin has already been on a wild ride this year along with the rest of the crypto market. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at .125 and is down by 16.92% in the past seven days. Trading volume is up by 50% in the past 24 hours, which suggests a return of investor interest.
Increased Bitcoin ETF Adoption Propels BTC Dominance To Highest Level Since 2021
Bitcoin’s dominance within the cryptocurrency market has reached a three-year high, signaling strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETF holding the largest digital asset and a challenging period for smaller tokens.
Bitcoin accounted for nearly 55% of the .4 trillion digital asset market at the end of last week, a level not seen since April 2021. On Saturday, in particular, BTC’s dominance jumped to 57% as it briefly touched the ,000 mark.
The next largest tokens by market share include Ethereum (ETH), Tether’s USDT stablecoin, Binance exchange’s native token Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL).
BTC’s Rise Fueled By Successful US Bitcoin ETF Launches
According to Bloomberg, the recent success of the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs from prominent issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s rise.
These ETFs have garnered approximately billion in assets, making their debut one of the most successful in fund category history.
The inflows into these ETFs drove BTC to its current all-time high (ATH) of ,798 in mid-March, a clear resistance level for the largest cryptocurrency on the market, as evidenced by its inability to consolidate above the ,000 level following this achievement.
Although BTC is down about 6% since then, smaller digital assets such as Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Chainlink (LINK) have seen more significant declines of nearly 30% over the past month.
This drop coincided with reduced expectations for looser US monetary policy settings, often fueling speculative gains.
Hong Kong-Listed ETFs Boosts Bitcoin And Ethereum
Institutional investors’ allocations to the US Bitcoin ETF have greatly influenced Bitcoin’s performance relative to the rest of the market. Benjamin Celermajer, director of digital-asset investment at Magnet Capital, noted that strong institutional demand is a key driver.
On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw notable price jumps following indications that asset managers are preparing to launch Hong Kong-listed ETFs on both tokens. Bitcoin rose 4.3% to ,575, while ETH jumped 6.2% to ,260.
These rallies had a positive impact on the broader crypto market, lifting other notable tokens such as Polygon (MATIC), Cardano (ADA), the dog-themed meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana, which is now the top 5 cryptocurrency market winner, up over 8% on Monday.
Interestingly, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which measures the performance of the largest digital assets traded in US dollars, has more than tripled since the beginning of last year, marking a significant rebound from the bear market experienced in 2022.
Lastly, investors and traders eagerly anticipate the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, an event that will cut the new supply of the token in half, expected around April 20th.
Previous Halving events have acted as a tailwind for prices, although there are growing doubts about whether history will repeat itself given BTC’s recent all-time high achievement.
BTC has successfully maintained its position above the ,000 threshold and has consolidated in this range. However, it is important to note that losses have accumulated over longer time frames.
Over the past fourteen and thirty days of trading, the cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines of over 21% and 24% respectively.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto Expert Predicts Massive Shiba Inu Run As Price Mirrors 2021
Crypto expert Rekt Capital has suggested that Shiba Inu (SHIB) could follow a similar trajectory to its move back in 2021. If so, this sets up the crypto token for a parabolic move that could see it hit its all-time high (ATH) and even surpass it.
2024 Shiba Inu To Mirror 2021 Action
Rekt Capital mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that SHIB’s retest was successful and that history was repeating itself. According to him, SHIB needs to break above the .000033285 price range to begin its uptrend continuation. In a previous post, the crypto analyst raised the possibility of SHIB’s price action mirroring the one from 2021.
He noted how SHIB came close to that price range but couldn’t break this resistance level. This was the same thing in late 2021, as Shiba Inu didn’t break that resistance level on the first attempt. That forced the meme coin to retest the .000026041 price level as a new support before confirming further upside.
This time, Shiba Inu also retested that .000026041 price level during its recent price dip, which was partly caused by a wave of profit-taking. The meme coin showed great resolve and somehow managed to hold above that level, and it has since made a good recovery.
Now, it needs to break above the .000033285 price range to confirm that history is repeating itself and that a price surge to the one in 2021 is on the horizon. 2021 was SHIB’s breakout year when it enjoyed a mouth-watering gain of 46,000,000% on its way to an ATH of .00008845 in October 2021.
Analysts Optimistic About Shiba Inu’s Future Trajectory
Rekt Capital isn’t the only one optimistic about SHIB’s future trajectory. Crypto analyst and trader Xanrox recently predicted that SHIB could rise to .00008854 by July, representing a new ATH for the meme coin. Interestingly, that looks to be only the starting point for the meme coin, as other analysts have predicted that SHIB could shed another zero.
One of them is crypto investor and analyst Oscar Ramos, who expressed his bullish sentiment about the meme coin when he predicted it could rise to .0001. Technical analyst Javon Marks also echoed similar sentiments when he suggested that SHIB could rise to as high as .0001553.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez once suggested that SHIB’s price gain in 2021 could be nothing compared to what lies ahead for the meme coin. Specifically, Martinez predicted that Shiba Inu could see a historic 122,000% price surge to .011.
At the time of writing, SHIB is trading around .00003116, up over 3% in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Dogecoin Leaps in Value, Reaches First $0.22 Peak Since 2021
The leading meme token by market value, dogecoin, experienced an 18% increase on Thursday, climbing to .22 per coin for its first ascent to this level since 2021. The ‘Dog Father’ Reigns: Dogecoin Soars 43.3% in 7 Days Against the U.S. Dollar The proclaimed ‘Dog Father’ of meme coins, dogecoin (DOGE), has shown a substantial […]
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